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Wintry February 7-8 Winter storm

Weatherlover92 said:
000
FXUS62 KFFC 072005
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020



.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Mostly cloudy skies expected to break up this evening allowing temps
to fall to the low- to mid-30s tonight and tomorrow morning. A h850
shortwave is expected to sweep through the southeast tonight and
tomorrow morning, with relatively smaller PWAT values but enough to
produce a tenth to a half an inch across the northern CWA. With
temps just above the surface below freezing this means winter precip
will be involved, and even though QPF is expected to be low, it will
be enough with an approximate 7.5:1 snow-water ratio for minor snow
accumulations to occur with a rain/snow mix across North Georgia.
Only about a tenth to a half inch of snow accumulations outside the
mountainous regions are expected but with rains and warm ground
temps, if anything falls it probably won`t stick around long. In
mountainous regions up north this could be a different story.
Embedded in colder temps, areas of NW Georgia could see 1-2 inches,
with higher elevations along the spine and mountaintops of the GA
Blue Ridge mountains could see up to 4 inches in some isolated
locations. This has prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for the
majority of Northern GA. Temps may climb into the upper 30s before
the transition from snow to rain occurs with some slick spots
possible where any accumulations occur. Temps tomorrow night will
also drop back into the low-30s for N GA, which may continue to
cause some slick spots Sunday morning.


Thiem

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
Click to expand...
This could bust pretty bad if the models are right.
 
18z 3km NAM improved for areas west of Atlanta.


18z
4EWUas.jpg


12z(Older run)

KMvm8w.jpg
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Only about a tenth to a half inch of snow accumulations outside the
mountainous regions are expected but with rains and warm ground
temps, if anything falls it probably won`t stick around long.
Click to expand...

Wow, my soil temperature right now is about 45 degrees and I'm supposed to get below freezing after midnight. So that's 8 hours of freezing temperatures before event begins.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
000
FXUS62 KFFC 072005
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020



.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Mostly cloudy skies expected to break up this evening allowing temps
to fall to the low- to mid-30s tonight and tomorrow morning. A h850
shortwave is expected to sweep through the southeast tonight and
tomorrow morning, with relatively smaller PWAT values but enough to
produce a tenth to a half an inch across the northern CWA. With
temps just above the surface below freezing this means winter precip
will be involved, and even though QPF is expected to be low, it will
be enough with an approximate 7.5:1 snow-water ratio for minor snow
accumulations to occur with a rain/snow mix across North Georgia.
Only about a tenth to a half inch of snow accumulations outside the
mountainous regions are expected but with rains and warm ground
temps, if anything falls it probably won`t stick around long. In
mountainous regions up north this could be a different story.
Embedded in colder temps, areas of NW Georgia could see 1-2 inches,
with higher elevations along the spine and mountaintops of the GA
Blue Ridge mountains could see up to 4 inches in some isolated
locations. This has prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for the
majority of Northern GA. Temps may climb into the upper 30s before
the transition from snow to rain occurs with some slick spots
possible where any accumulations occur. Temps tomorrow night will
also drop back into the low-30s for N GA, which may continue to
cause some slick spots Sunday morning.


Thiem

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
Click to expand...
I wonder when they'll issue the advisory officially.
 
MRX not buying and says "meh".

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
324 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

...Light Snow Possible Saturday...

A brief period of snow is expected on Saturday morning through
mid-afternoon. Any accumulations are expected to be light,
generally a dusting or less with localized spots up to one-half
inch, and mainly limited to grassy and elevated surfaces. Light
snow may mix with rain during the afternoon hours as surface
temperatures warm. Any light accumulations are expected to melt
during the afternoon hours. No impacts are expected.

Prepare for reduced visibilities in snow showers and isolated
slick spots on elevated surfaces such as bridges.
 
Haters gonna hate.... I mean it's an easy call for them really either way as it will be a weekend so a bust on either side of it isn't going to be too concerning and I bet they are weighing on the well this really just developed this chance anywhere outside the NE Mountains in the past 24 hours outside of that why go big type thought. People will wake up tomorrow and majority won't have urgent plans they see snow coming down they will just call it a day
 
EPS surprisingly had some members even in Bham. I know we likely won’t see much, but I’d love a surprise. Precip rates actually looked good on the HRRR with temps in the mid 30s, but rains. UGH

CEB0CC3A-E7E7-4E33-A4A8-951924779691.png
 
Wow looks like a big novelty event coming tomorrow ... so exciting .. unfortunate that this is what is exciting me this winter but let’s be honest we all get excited when we see even a little white flake falling from the sky
 
cyclogent said:
MRX not buying and says "meh".

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
324 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

...Light Snow Possible Saturday...

A brief period of snow is expected on Saturday morning through
mid-afternoon. Any accumulations are expected to be light,
generally a dusting or less with localized spots up to one-half
inch, and mainly limited to grassy and elevated surfaces. Light
snow may mix with rain during the afternoon hours as surface
temperatures warm. Any light accumulations are expected to melt
during the afternoon hours. No impacts are expected.

Prepare for reduced visibilities in snow showers and isolated
slick spots on elevated surfaces such as bridges.
Click to expand...
Sounds like a big win if you ask me.
 
ForsythSnow said:
FFC finally pulled the trigger. Up to 2 inches with 3 to 4 in the higher elevations. Up to an inch in the metro.
Click to expand...
ALEET! ALEET!! I always wanted to say that. Never thought I would this winter.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
347 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020


GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-030>035-045-080500-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0001.200208T0900Z-200208T1800Z/
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-DeKalb-
Including the cities of Calhoun, Dahlonega, Cleveland, Rome,
Cartersville, Gainesville, Marietta, Atlanta, Lawrenceville,
and Decatur
347 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected...mixed with rain at times. Total snow
accumulations of up to two inches...possibly three to four
inches at higher elevations. Amounts of generally less than an
inch possible for the Atlanta Metro area.

* WHERE...Generally north of Interstate 20 and east of Interstate
85.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions...especially on
bridges and overpasses...or during heavier bursts of snow.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures are expected to warm by
afternoon so a transition to all rain should bring improving
conditions. However the northeast mountains could continue to
see periods of snow through the day. Temperatures should drop
below freezing again Saturday night...making black ice possible
on Sunday morning.

*PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$
 
Gsp must be thinking it moves into the upstate to late for any accumulation in upstate


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Bsud said:
Probably when it starts, they are conservative with stuff like this
Click to expand...
Plus with models still somewhat drying things up as they progress into the area they probably don’t believe it warrants anything other than a possible mention of flakes ... would have to see if models increase moisture and move that into the gsb area before they pull any sort of trigger ... of course this all would be now casting which I believe we will have to do as we do with all small and questionable systems
 
malak05 said:
I'm in Paulding county living on the side of a big hill my little community usually does pretty good but we are in the warzone of temp profiles and weather on-set it looks like it will be boom or bust for my area
Click to expand...
Lol I’m with ya, I think we actually live pretty close to each other
 
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