Z
Zander98al
Guest
Any upgrade to a moderate IF it happens would be in this corridor i imagine. 
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Severe Possible severe threat 12/16/19
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
I don’t think they will, but there’s probably gonna be a hatched area
Z
Zander98al
Guest
You think the percentage of tornado risk will jump to 15% in some areas for the next convective outlook? They only have the risk as a 5% on the day 2 convective outlook.
SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETERS
10% at least, maybe a 15% (hatched), those warm sector supercells can be tricky to predict
SIG TOR PARAMETERS
IM AT THE "X" AND I COULD SEE THE CIRCLED AREA POSS BEING HATCHED IF NOT UPGRADED TO MODERATE
THIS IS THE MAX RUN UPDRAFT HELICITY SWATHS
THIS IS THE MAX RUN UPDRAFT HELICITY SWATHS
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,278
- Reaction score
- 9,645
I'm just below you in Clarke Co. Weather Channel has us at torcon 3
SPC AC 160554
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL
ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast beginning midday today
over Louisiana and peaking during the late afternoon/evening from
northeast Louisiana into central Mississippi and into Alabama late.
A few tornadoes and damaging gusts are the primary hazards.
...Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough near the TX-OK Panhandles this morning
will slightly weaken as it moves to the lower MO Valley by early
Tuesday morning. A surface front extending from east TX
northeastward into the lower TN Valley is forecast to sag south/east
through the lower MS Valley and into AL. A weak area of low
pressure is forecast to develop over northern LA by early afternoon
and migrate northeast into TN after dusk.
Sunday night surface observations over the northwest Gulf Coast
indicate a very moist airmass (dewpoints near 70 degrees F) has
infiltrated the coastal plain of the upper TX coast and southwest
LA. A relatively pristine convective scenario is forecast to unfold
beginning by the late morning-midday timeframe in the vicinity of
the Sabine Valley and gradually spread northeast during the
afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes. The combination of
diurnal heating and continued moistening at the base of a weakening
capping inversion will gradually lead to convective development by
early afternoon. It appears thunderstorms will preferentially favor
the front but discrete warm sector initiation appears plausible
mainly in a corridor from central into northeast LA. Strong and
veering low- to mid-level flow fields are forecast across the
Enhanced Risk. Forecast hodographs show some tendency for some
minor veer-back-veer structure around 700mb which may dampen a more
favorable hodograph/storm rotation potential. Nonetheless, forecast
soundings show a moist boundary layer with MLCAPE ranging from 1500
J/kg across LA into central MS with decreasing CAPE with
northeast/east extent. Consequently, a fanning of lower severe
probabilities are forecast from north-central MS northeastward into
TN and the northern half of AL.
Large hail may accompany the stronger cores where the risk for
discrete updrafts is highest and where 700-500mb lapse rates are 7-8
degrees C/km over LA and parts of MS. The tornado risk will
probably maximize during the afternoon/evening over LA as
quasi-discrete activity develops and moves northeast into MS. A
gradual consolidation/merging of storms will lead to the risk for
damaging gusts increasing concurrent with upscale growth.
..Smith/Bentley.. 12/16/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0608Z (12:08AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Ilovesnow28
Member
Ugh seems like this is all Tuscaloosa is good for severe weather
LATEST FROM NWS BMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
339 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019
.SHORT TERM...
/UPDATED AT 0336 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019/
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGHEST RISK WEST OF I-
65. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
RETURN/ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS WEST ALABAMA, WITH SOME
MID 60S ALONG THE ALABAMA GULF COAST, SUGGESTING GREATER MOISTURE
QUALITY LATER TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN TN TO A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL TEXAS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. A STRENGTHENING
LLJ SHOULD CAUSE ENOUGH MIXING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP TODAY, ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE 70S IN MOST AREAS.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND MIDWEST TODAY, WHILE INTERACTING WITH SOME
NORTHERN STREAM WAVES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE
CVA WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, IT WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH
MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 60 KTS.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND NORTHWEST AL INTO MIDDLE TN, CAUSING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, PRECEDED BY A 45-
50KT LLJ. SUPERCELLS WILL INITIATE OVER THE ARKLAMISS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, AND AROUND 50 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR ORIENTED AROUND 45 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT
WILL ALLOW THEM TO STAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SHEAR VECTOR
ORIENTATION WILL HELP KEEP THE LINE SEMI-BROKEN, AND THE MODEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE ANOTHER FACTOR THAT PREVENTS
LARGE-SCALE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGE-SCALE QLCS. INSTEAD, MIXED
STORM MODES OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS ARE EXPECTED. HREF
MEMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVING INTO WEST ALABAMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WITH INDICATIONS OF A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF
THE BROKEN LINE.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS THE STOUT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER (EML) INDICATED ON UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS WITH 700-500MB LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8C/KM. THIS CERTAINLY INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
HAIL, AND ALSO RESULTS IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ONLY 68-72F
PRODUCING SBCAPE VALUES OF 700-1200 J/KG DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, WHICH IS DECENT FOR MID-DECEMBER. THUS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING PRIOR TO THE MAIN TIMING OF THE EVENT WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH
OF A FACTOR. THE ENHANCED RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE, GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF I-65 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-22. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS, BUT GIVEN THE SHEAR VECTOR
ORIENTATION FAVORING AT LEAST EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS, SRH OF 200-350
M2/S2, LARGE/CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, AND CRITICAL ANGLES NEAR
70 DEGREES, TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CONCERN. HAIL WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT WITH SUPERCELL UPDRAFT CORES.
STORM INTERACTIONS WITHIN THE MESSY STORM MODE WILL LIKELY MAKE OR
BREAK THIS EVENT. SOME MID-LEVEL BACKING/HODOGRAPH WEAKNESSES MAY
ALSO PROMOTE MESSY STORM MODES. WARM AIR AT THE BASE OF THE STRONG
EML AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING IS ALSO ANOTHER POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR.
A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS THAT CAN AVOID INTERFERENCE FROM OTHER STORMS, BUT GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION THIS POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME. ALL IN ALL, EVERYONE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA NEEDS TO REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE AND BE READY TO ENACT THEIR SEVERE WEATHER PLAN
TONIGHT. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT THAT FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
IS SLOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AND THERE COULD BE A
RELATIVE LULL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE IN ACTIVITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ENHANCED RISK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TIMING WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL, AND EXTENDED THE END
TIME TO 7AM TUESDAY AS THE SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE CLEAR OF
BARBOUR/RUSSELL COUNTIES BY 6AM. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
MANAGEABLE WITH ACTIVITY REMAINING PROGRESSIVE, BUT SOME MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
RAIN WILL LINGER TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA, BEFORE EXITING BY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POST-
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
339 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019
.SHORT TERM...
/UPDATED AT 0336 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019/
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGHEST RISK WEST OF I-
65. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
RETURN/ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS WEST ALABAMA, WITH SOME
MID 60S ALONG THE ALABAMA GULF COAST, SUGGESTING GREATER MOISTURE
QUALITY LATER TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN TN TO A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL TEXAS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. A STRENGTHENING
LLJ SHOULD CAUSE ENOUGH MIXING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP TODAY, ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE 70S IN MOST AREAS.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND MIDWEST TODAY, WHILE INTERACTING WITH SOME
NORTHERN STREAM WAVES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE
CVA WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, IT WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH
MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 60 KTS.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND NORTHWEST AL INTO MIDDLE TN, CAUSING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, PRECEDED BY A 45-
50KT LLJ. SUPERCELLS WILL INITIATE OVER THE ARKLAMISS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, AND AROUND 50 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR ORIENTED AROUND 45 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT
WILL ALLOW THEM TO STAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SHEAR VECTOR
ORIENTATION WILL HELP KEEP THE LINE SEMI-BROKEN, AND THE MODEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE ANOTHER FACTOR THAT PREVENTS
LARGE-SCALE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGE-SCALE QLCS. INSTEAD, MIXED
STORM MODES OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS ARE EXPECTED. HREF
MEMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVING INTO WEST ALABAMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WITH INDICATIONS OF A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF
THE BROKEN LINE.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS THE STOUT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER (EML) INDICATED ON UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS WITH 700-500MB LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8C/KM. THIS CERTAINLY INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
HAIL, AND ALSO RESULTS IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ONLY 68-72F
PRODUCING SBCAPE VALUES OF 700-1200 J/KG DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, WHICH IS DECENT FOR MID-DECEMBER. THUS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING PRIOR TO THE MAIN TIMING OF THE EVENT WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH
OF A FACTOR. THE ENHANCED RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE, GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF I-65 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-22. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS, BUT GIVEN THE SHEAR VECTOR
ORIENTATION FAVORING AT LEAST EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS, SRH OF 200-350
M2/S2, LARGE/CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, AND CRITICAL ANGLES NEAR
70 DEGREES, TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CONCERN. HAIL WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT WITH SUPERCELL UPDRAFT CORES.
STORM INTERACTIONS WITHIN THE MESSY STORM MODE WILL LIKELY MAKE OR
BREAK THIS EVENT. SOME MID-LEVEL BACKING/HODOGRAPH WEAKNESSES MAY
ALSO PROMOTE MESSY STORM MODES. WARM AIR AT THE BASE OF THE STRONG
EML AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING IS ALSO ANOTHER POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR.
A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS THAT CAN AVOID INTERFERENCE FROM OTHER STORMS, BUT GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION THIS POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME. ALL IN ALL, EVERYONE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA NEEDS TO REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE AND BE READY TO ENACT THEIR SEVERE WEATHER PLAN
TONIGHT. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT THAT FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
IS SLOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AND THERE COULD BE A
RELATIVE LULL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE IN ACTIVITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ENHANCED RISK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TIMING WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL, AND EXTENDED THE END
TIME TO 7AM TUESDAY AS THE SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE CLEAR OF
BARBOUR/RUSSELL COUNTIES BY 6AM. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
MANAGEABLE WITH ACTIVITY REMAINING PROGRESSIVE, BUT SOME MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
RAIN WILL LINGER TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA, BEFORE EXITING BY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POST-
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
Good luck sounds like it might be pretty bad nws huntsville still saying low instability at best here
Paying attention to daytime heating and cloud cover at this point for parts in the area of these storms at this point over-performance would be concerning as it would most likely get the CAPE values higher which is one of the main limiters at this point.
Are you seeing any breaks we are socked in where I live at