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Severe March 1st Severe Weather Threat

FFC mentioning strong Thunderstorms and Tornado potential for Wednesday night in NW Georgia and parts of Central GA. and 3 day outlook shows enhanced areas in SE not bad for a Feb situation.
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The new Day 1 Outlook has a much larger Enhanced Risk area, now including much of Indiana. SPC noted a few strong tornadoes are possible in Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois.
 
Not liking the looks of the NAM, as it shows several nasty looking cells and 1000+ CAPE into North Georgia and only gets worse back west into Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Looks like some tornadoes are definitely becoming likely.
 
When do you think the biggest threat for middle Tennessee is for those cells
 
I am a teacher in Northwest Georgia (Dalton area) and I was wondering what you guys think the timeline is going to be for strong storms tomorrow (Wednesday). I am a little worried about the buses getting home before the storms. Also, does it seem like Northwest Georgia may get only severe storms or are tornadoes possible as well? Thanks!
 
Cardall07 said:
I am a teacher in Northwest Georgia (Dalton area) and I was wondering what you guys think the timeline is going to be for strong storms tomorrow (Wednesday). I am a little worried about the buses getting home before the storms. Also, does it seem like Northwest Georgia may get only severe storms or are tornadoes possible as well? Thanks!
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It's going to be close, mid-late afternoon seems like a pretty good bet... We'll probably know more precise timing by tomorrow once we actually have a fully developed squall line
 
It's worth re-iterating here that this is primarily an overnight threat for the ozarks, IN, western KY, etc. because its liable to take a really long time for the convection to overcome the capping inversion enhanced by all of the upper level descent/sinking in the right exit region of a powerful 150+ knot jet streak in the southern plains.
 
I personally do not like severe season (beacuse of the death and destruction it can bring to us or our neighbors) but think this one could be a lot like this past winter, very underwhelming for those in the SE. Because of the inabilty of the cold to move out of the West for the most part this Winter, it is likely to continue (persistence wins out again) through Spring and early Summer, giving us much above normal and stable temps leading to less cyclogenesis. The one exception I see as being likely would be the Western Tn, Ky, and western deep south (the biggest focus IMO will be the lower midwest and westward). I am not saying there won't be some potentially severe storms here, but just not to an abnomally higher than average level. That would be just fine with me too
 
Looking at the NAMs today it confirms my thoughts that the highest concentration/best tornado threat might be in Missouri and Illinois while down toward Ark it might be 1 or 2 isolated supercells rolling across the state
 
Since it was the cool thing to do on twitter this morning
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Via Randy Bowers, sounding from Little Rock, AR vs HRRR forecast for 18z... You can clearly see the HRRR is way too moist, & thus has too much CAPE, and the inversion aloft is much stronger than forecast. While they are not in the sweet spot for this storm, they're upstream of the airmass that's being advected into the MDT risk area and this sounding is important to see how high resolution models are handling the overall environment here. Thus far, looks lackluster...

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2 watching coming from SPC. I am most interested in the watch for Il, could be some big hail in that one
 
Tornado watch has been hoisted
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 41
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
215 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern and West-Central Illinois
Extreme Southeast Kansas
Central and Southern Missouri

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
900 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to affect the
watch area this afternoon and evening, with a few severe storms
likely. Very large hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible in
the more intense storms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Joplin MO
to 25 miles south southeast of Mount Vernon IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.
 

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Confirmed tornado on the ground southwest of Aurora Il

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SD said:
Confirmed tornado on the ground southwest of Aurora Il

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Then another warning right behind it. The cell to the NW of Peoria looks like it might need a tornado warning soon

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Webberweather53 said:
yea the debris ball was over 1.6 miles wide. This storm is following an eerily similar track to the tri-state tornado of 1925

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Hope I am reading this right, but off the CC radar, you can see debris balls, correct? If so, there it is very close to that path you posted, but a few miles north of it.
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