• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Hotober

Arcc said:
EPS and GEFS are just amazing. If we can only lock in this pattern for the next four months.
Click to expand...

I can only see EPS out to 240 and it didn't look great to me. Central based trough with lots of WAR muting any cold in the east.

GEFS way out looked good though. Just for fun.

1571412929734.png
 
Arcc said:
Holy moly. November to Remember anyone?

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_9.png


ecmwf_z500a_nhem_10.png


ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png
Click to expand...
Looks perfect for some cold rain!
 
SnowNiner said:
I can only see EPS out to 240 and it didn't look great to me. Central based trough with lots of WAR muting any cold in the east.

GEFS way out looked good though. Just for fun.

View attachment 24634
Click to expand...

I would take this look all winter long. Cant help yall in NC. This is a dog eat dog world.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Go drunk, your home!??
Click to expand...
Not yet! Mexican tonight though ?? ? ? Remember last year when we would get into a promising pattern and everyone was like “I’ll take this! This pattern is sure to produce!” and then precipitation was nowhere to be found ??‍♂️? good times
 
So basically we’re going to have the same November as last year after a similar October?

I hope this December is better.
 
If you go by others in this thread and another thread, supposedly a +PNA/-EPO pattern will repeat itself and it's possible we get a +PDO which is favorable for cold dumping in the eastern US.

But thinking way ahead is long range and not easy to predict anyway.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Not yet! Mexican tonight though ?? ? ? Remember last year when we would get into a promising pattern and everyone was like “I’ll take this! This pattern is sure to produce!” and then precipitation was nowhere to be found ??‍♂️? good times
Click to expand...
Mexican Friday, I was thinking the same. Typsy Taco, or La Fogata?? Gotta have a few drinks and watch this 1-2” event, turn into scattered drizzle!
 
Today's high in GSO was 4 degrees BA, the low was 7 degrees BA and have had patchy frost for the past 3 days. Hoping we can make a run in the upper 30's tomorrow.

GSO graphic.PNG
If you would like to purchase this graphic shoot me an email at [email protected]
 
The eps that once looked promising for a big time cool down towards the end on October into the first week of November now looks like hell
8274cd4de58227c9ded66b9efbd559e6.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Got to say, gfs has been doing fairly good this year. Been very consistent with fronts. Wouldn't be surprised if someone in the upper south sees a little frozen stuff first week of November
 
Trick or treat mofos! That would make for a nipply Halloween! The gfs has a good blast of very cold air that arrives day before Halloween, snow in the mountains
 
Storm5 said:
The eps that once looked promising for a big time cool down towards the end on October into the first week of November now looks like hell
8274cd4de58227c9ded66b9efbd559e6.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Looks like we were tricked! Had to figure a -NAO w/o a corresponding east pac ridge was to good to be true!
 
NoSnowATL said:
Currently 52 with light rain, not too breezy yet. It’s chilly. Sitting on .13 so far.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yep, those crazy cold highs the models were showing, are happening! I’m at 51/45 rain knocking on the door! Could lock into upper 40s
 
Last edited:
accu35 said:
Got to say, gfs has been doing fairly good this year. Been very consistent with fronts. Wouldn't be surprised if someone in the upper south sees a little frozen stuff first week of November
Click to expand...

You are so correct accue35. Maybe a little frozen margarita outside your favourite Mexican restaurant on the patio.☹???
 
NoSnowATL said:
Currently 52 with light rain, not too breezy yet. It’s chilly. Sitting on .13 so far.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Kudos to the GFS for sticking to its guns for today. Woke up to 57 and it is now 53 with .11” so far.
 
This certainly isn't the worst environment I've seen for tornadoes around here during the overnight hours.

Biggest inhibitor will be the piss poor low-level lapse rates but they can be overcome if the low passes directly overhead.

download (79).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This certainly isn't the worst environment I've seen for tornadoes around here during the overnight hours.

Biggest inhibitor will be the piss poor low-level lapse rates but they can be overcome if the low passes directly overhead.

View attachment 24688
Click to expand...

Yeah and there is basically no surface based cape, but very low LCLs and MUcape with that very big amount of shear can certainly spin some tornadoes up
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah and there is basically no surface based cape, but very low LCLs and MUcape with that very big amount of shear can certainly spin some tornadoes up
Click to expand...

Yeah I'm not expecting an outbreak obviously but a brief spin-up or two certainly seems like a legit possibility even up to Fayetteville. There will be non-zero surface based CAPE if the surface low moves overhead in addition to the extremely low LCLs and strong low-level shear.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Models are definitely going to bust low on the rainfall totals here.

It is pouring out there.
Click to expand...

Yeah I’m not sure the totals so far but here in Buckhead we appear to be over performing. Would not be shocked if over 2 inches before all is said and done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ATLwxfan said:
Yeah I’m not sure the totals so far but here in Buckhead we appear to be over performing. Would not be shocked if over 2 inches before all is said and done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

ab6c65d9c6cf1294fde98b043eb95f58.jpg



We have many more hrs of steady to mod rain for Atlanta area. 2-3 might be possible.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top