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Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt

SnowHusky said:
The 12z GEFS (the control run of the GEFS) has a winter event during the 26th-27th, not buying that yet cause the GFS OP and the EPS has that system cutting and also there is limited skill at that range. Next week, there could be a lot of fun around here model watching wise.

Edit: the indices show the EPO tanking and a -NAO during that time period. The GFS and GEFS are in agreement as of now on the MJO - weak phase 1 (someone send me the link to all of the models that are shown on the MJO).
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and in addition to what SD sent
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php
 
SnowHusky said:
The 12z GEFS (the control run of the GEFS) has a winter event during the 26th-27th, not buying that yet cause the GFS OP and the EPS has that system cutting and also there is limited skill at that range. Next week, there could be a lot of fun around here model watching wise.

Edit: the indices show the EPO tanking and a -NAO during that time period. The GFS and GEFS are in agreement as of now on the MJO - weak phase 1 (someone send me the link to all of the models that are shown on the MJO).
Click to expand...
and - there are additional resources in the Model Thread and GaWx has posted info in the Blog and throughout the discussions ...
hope this helps ... ;)
 
SnowHusky said:
The 12z GEFS (the control run of the GEFS) has a winter event during the 26th-27th, not buying that yet cause the GFS OP and the EPS has that system cutting and also there is limited skill at that range. Next week, there could be a lot of fun around here model watching wise.

Edit: the indices show the EPO tanking and a -NAO during that time period. The GFS and GEFS are in agreement as of now on the MJO - weak phase 1 (someone send me the link to all of the models that are shown on the MJO).
Click to expand...
ohh .. and bad me for forgetting ... search Webber - he has all sorts of MJO info in here ...
 
Respectfully - we do need to establish a "library" where Webb's, and GaWx's and others' research, and academia, and points, can be easily accessed by topic ... a digital Dewey Decimal System link of sorts, for the users.
Just an idea but may be worth it ...
 
Larry's stuff is on the blog....webbers stuff can be added as well if he gives us permission

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pcbjr said:
Respectfully - we do need to establish a "library" where Webb's, and GaWx's and others' research, and academia, and points, can be easily accessed by topic ... a digital Dewey Decimal System link of sorts, for the users.
Just an idea but may be worth it ...
Click to expand...
That's a good idea, I'm learning more about the MJO. I'm pretty quick at catching onto the science behind weather.

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SD said:
Larry's stuff is on the blog....webbers stuff can be added as well if he gives us permission

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I know - maybe a bad suggestion, but just getting resources available to folks in a quick way ... but then, I'm a bit crazy :confused: (hopefully in a good way :D)
 
pcbjr said:
I know - maybe a bad suggestion, but just getting resources available to folks in a quick way ... but then, I'm a bit crazy :confused:
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It's not a bad suggestion at all. It's something we can certainly work on. I just want to make sure that everyone consents to things being lifted from threads and posted that way before we do it

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SD said:
It's not a bad suggestion at all. It's something we can certainly work on. I just want to make sure that everyone consents to things being lifted from threads and posted that way before we do it

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Then let's ask them - here's the question:
Can the Mods/Staff incorporate your material into a "library"?
How does someone say "Yes"? Maybe a tab to click? (Shawn will love that idea ... LOL)
And then who is the librarian? (SD will love that idea ... LMAO)
But seriously - having all of this wonderful info we're getting in a place that can be accessed in a reasonable format would be a coup .... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Then let's ask them - here's the question:
Can the Mods/Staff incorporate your material into a "library"?
How does someone say "Yes"? Maybe a tab to click? (Shawn will love that idea ... LOL)
And then who is the librarian? (SD will love that idea ... LMAO)
But seriously - having all of this wonderful info we're getting in a place that can be accessed in a reasonable format would be a coup .... ;)
Click to expand...

Do we need both a blog & a library? Maybe just one?
 
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GaWx said:
Do weed need both a blog & a library? Maybe just one?
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Agree - Just tossing ideas - my thought was/is to categorize so that if someone wants MJO, or teleconnection, or STA, winter, 'Canes or any other categorized info, they can find it readily - the Blog is a library but without a hierarchical organization - which was/is my point. But this is beyond my right to opine .... :oops:

so shhhhhhh, phil
 
just picture perfect @ 500

Screen_Shot_2017_02_17_at_10_24_08_PM.png
 
Many could save trouble and just follow the EPS/Euro. Other models are wrong. If the Euro/EPS show a potential system, then game on.

I still think it's silly how people took my avatar change as a gimmick or troll. I meant it. It's over for Winter for most of the SE. Some places in TN/NC can see an event still, sure. Maybe a sleet or ice event to the South of those areas IF there is a nice cold hit into early-mid March.
 
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SD said:
cc8228d23fea4f1ace22831fc616b9d0.jpg


We just can't get out of our own way. But at least the overall pattern looks rainy

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Yeah this is a great wintry pattern for the plains and midwest . They will be cashing big time
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah this is a great wintry pattern for the plains and midwest . They will be cashing big time
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Yeah 2 winter storms back to back, come on tax money so I can chase, cause I'm not going to see anything here, lol.
 
SD said:
cc8228d23fea4f1ace22831fc616b9d0.jpg


We just can't get out of our own way. But at least the overall pattern looks rainy

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If there's one look on the maps you can take to the bank this winter, it's W trough, SE / E ridge ! And I never want to see that look again! Portland, you suck! :(
 
Tarheel1 said:
If there's one look on the maps you can take to the bank this winter, it's W trough, SE / E ridge ! And I never want to see that look again! Portland, you suck! :(
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No kidding that Alaskan ridge is great if it's coupled with a western us ridge. Just the AK ridge makes it tough for the SE but is great for the northern half

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Tarheel1 said:
If there's one look on the maps you can take to the bank this winter, it's W trough, SE / E ridge ! And I never want to see that look again! Portland, you suck! :(
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I have a friend that lives in Portland . She has been sending me pics over the last two months . Looks like fun

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whatalife said:
At this pt I'm all in for spring


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Looking @ LR, it would appear today that we down here are going from Feb straight to May and skipping March and April (showing 85º within 10 - 14 days) ... :( ... but, well see
 
Maybe the Gulf Stream will shut down and we'll get decent winters again. There's a 50 percent chance according to the latest models.


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SD said:
Just from looking at the gif of H5 the pacific didn't look that great. Big -nao?

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Yeah the pattern in general didn't look too great with an east-based -NAO & SCAND, a modest -EPO, and a ridge over the eastern US, but one shortwave slipped underneath the rest is history...
The winter of 1978-79 in general was cold in virtually the entire contiguous US, every climate division was near or below average, with the core of the coldest anomalies centered over the midwest. In fact, 1978-79 is the coldest winter on record in the US. When you're this cold, it doesn't matter as much what the short term synoptic setup looks like, almost anything w/ moisture will drop snow... One of the few times where we had that luxury...
Screen Shot 2017-02-18 at 11.26.20 AM.png
compday.Ag6NEiQp9y.gif
Screen Shot 2017-02-18 at 11.25.15 AM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the pattern in general didn't look too great with an east-based -NAO & SCAND, a modest -EPO, and a ridge over the eastern US, but one shortwave slipped underneath the rest is history...
The winter of 1978-79 in general was cold in virtually the entire contiguous US, every climate division was near or below average, with the core of the coldest anomalies centered over the midwest. In fact, 1978-79 is the coldest winter on record in the US. When you're this cold, it doesn't matter as much what the short term synoptic setup looks like, almost anything w/ moisture will drop snow... One of the few times where we had that luxury...
View attachment 194
View attachment 193
View attachment 192
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the 78 79 winter sure was a very cold one... but best of my memory... winter 76-77 produced more snow for my area west tn... with extreme cold spells behind the systems that produced snow
 
Yup, the SER is back, if that's the case, winter is over. Bring on Hurricane season.
 
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