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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

ICON pretty much right where it was at 18Z, the fact the UKIE agreed with it and the Euro made a huge jump towards it might mean trouble...the good news is it is quite a bit east of Florida compared to last run this would lessen the impact on FL/GA coastal areas....

Still it might not have a way OTS and end up moving back W or NW from here....

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GeorgiaGirl said:
Have to think that ICON is probably too far east, but that kind of idea can't be ruled out until we see where the center ends up. Could end up relocating further east because the convection is higher there and if so all bets are off on what happens.

But look at us all wishing for rain lol...
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It is a reasonable possibility in my mind because the east shift of the consensus hasn’t stopped yet. Remember when the ICON was of the operational on its own with the just off E coast of FL? And now look where we are. The staying offshore scenario has to be considered. This is partially supported by some 18Z EPS members staying well offshore.
 
Well it slowly drifts NE from there but does not go far but does become a strong hurricane....the problem is there is no real way for it to escape OTS.....
 
Early 0Z GFS maps suggest it will be a little east of its 18Z run. Let’s see.

Edit: no, it’s about same as 18Z.
 
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0Z Legacy also not further east. So, there is a large dichotomy in the model tracks with GFS/Legacy so far west of ICON!
 
GaWx said:
0Z Legacy also not further east. So, there is a large dichotomy in the model tracks with GFS/Legacy so far west of ICON!
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They also barely do anything with it....at 132 hrs hardly anywhere in the SE has more than 2" of rain outside of Florida......
 
THE CIRCLE TO THE SW I BELIEVE TO BE THE "CENTER" OF THE L NO THE ONE TO THE NE I HAVE NO CLUE WHAT COULD BE DIVERTING THE WIND AROUND.. POSSIBLY THE RUSSIANS:p

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Add 0Z Ukmet to the 0Z ICON with a run that is well offshore SE coast!

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 26.2N 76.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 26.2N 76.4W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2019 27.2N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 28.7N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2019 30.0N 79.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2019 31.4N 79.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.09.2019 32.5N 77.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 33.3N 75.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 33.7N 73.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 33.9N 69.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 
GaWx said:
Add 0Z Ukmet to the 0Z ICON with a run that is well offshore SE coast!

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 26.2N 76.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 26.2N 76.4W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2019 27.2N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 28.7N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2019 30.0N 79.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2019 31.4N 79.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.09.2019 32.5N 77.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 33.3N 75.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 33.7N 73.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 33.9N 69.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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IF the Euro goes east again it will be tough to argue against the Euro/Icon/Ukie idea.....especially since the GFS is basically like "what storm"....then the question becomes can it get out to the east before that ridge slides off the NE coast and pushes it back WNW or NW....
 
Downeastnc said:
IF the Euro goes east again it will be tough to argue against the Euro/Icon/Ukie idea.....especially since the GFS is basically like "what storm"....then the question becomes can it get out to the east before that ridge slides off the NE coast and pushes it back WNW or NW....
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DONT SEE IT HAPPENING , PRETTY MUCH A GOM AND THEN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN TO ALABAMA
 
Downeastnc said:
IF the Euro goes east again it will be tough to argue against the Euro/Icon/Ukie idea.....especially since the GFS is basically like "what storm"....then the question becomes can it get out to the east before that ridge slides off the NE coast and pushes it back WNW or NW....
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I am honestly getting a little worried for the SE coast again.
 
The models don’t even know which convection to sample yet!
 
Can't post the map as I'm on tablet but the cmc would be a major flood issue for at least a significant portion of SC.

Edit, and yeah I'm not sure we'll be able to start getting a grip until we figure out where the center is and if it does relocate east into the convection.
 
Seems to me if there is any lower level circulation associated with the NE blob its under that red circle I watched the loop a few dozen times seems like there could be something there though its tough to tell......then again a new "center" can form under any of those blobs at any time.

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The UKIE is much faster and farther north than the ICON, it basically is going to be a OTS solution with the center of a massive hurricane with 937 mb pressure being east of say ILM but well offshore 300 miles at least....in 6 days where as the ICON stalls and hangs out east of FL/GA border for 3-4 days at the end of the run.

Nevermind.....the other panels finally loaded and the Ukie gets scary close to NC before hooking east.....and weather.us crapped out again so I cant see them all but it looked like the storm got pretty darn close to SC/NC border before turning OTS>...
 
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Looks like the UKIE rides up 150 miles off FL as a weak cane, then continues to ride up GA/SC coast but well off the coast while dumping pressure, ends up 150 or so miles south of ILM heading NE and misses the NC coast by a good 100-150 miles....then heads due east right towards Bermuda though a bit north of it....its already heading NE or even ENE here....

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Euro missing Florida entirely it seems also appears to run right over Abaco Island(granted its very weak there but it won't help matters with the Dorian crisis)
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Brent said:
Going OTS

View attachment 23434
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I’m not saying I think OTS is anywhere near a done deal even though the chances are obviously increasing, but wouldn’t it be amazing if a storm that less than 2 days ago was projected by most models to go well out into the Gulf were to instead stay OTS offshore the SE coast?!
 
GaWx said:
I’m not saying I think OTS is anywhere near a done deal even though the chances are obviously increasing, but wouldn’t it be amazing if a storm that less than 2 days ago was projected by most models to go well out into the Gulf were to instead stay OTS offshore the SE coast?!
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shades of Dorian almost(granted Dorian wasn't OTS but still way different than Gulf bound)
 
GaWx said:
I’m not saying I think OTS is anywhere near a done deal even though the chances are obviously increasing, but wouldn’t it be amazing if a storm that less than 2 days ago was projected by most models to go well out into the Gulf were to instead stay OTS offshore the SE coast?!
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I think the next interesting aspect is will the Euro create a weakness with this storm and drag the second with it like the ICON does.
 
Brent said:
shades of Dorian almost(granted Dorian wasn't OTS but still way different than Gulf bound)
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By the way, I’m not yet sure this run is OTS as a high to the north may block it and allow it to hit NC.
 
Keep in mind what was said about how had there been, when the massive E US/W ATL ridge was peaking on the models, a TC closer to the US than the wave now just off Africa that it would have been in a very dangerous position. Well, look at where 95L is in relation to that same progged ridge.
 
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