Just noticed the 6z HMON has the center reorganize just north of Hispaniola and make a beeline for Miami. So far the 12z looks about the same. I don’t trust them, but the two hurricane models are leading the way with development so far.
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Ethan80963!
Member
UK going in for south/central Florida
Henry2326
Member
At 973....that's telling....we have escalation from everyone but Euro......waiting
Look like 12z Uk also shifted North
Henry2326
Member
I won't be surprised if we get some more shifts north by Saturday....
Ethan80963!
Member
Ethan80963!
Member
Storm5
Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Noticing a lot of recurve tracks up through GA/Carolinas
HMON has a strong tropical storm hitting south Florida @120 hours.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
If it takes that middle path of the models and goes into the Gulf, it looks like it could be a little stronger the second time it comes in along the panhandle.
Any reasoning as to why you won't be surprised if we get more north shifts?
Voice of reason..... too bad some want hear it.
I really think GA and SC coast need to keep an eye on this storm!! Please don’t let your guard down.
HWRF:
Henry2326
Member
Its riding the ridge and any change to the ridge will move it....if it changes, more likely it moves back north rather than any further south.
But why would the more likely change be north as opposed to south, why do you think that ridge will be weaker and allow a northward turn?
Henry2326
Member
Because models are squirrelly and it's already stout. Would be a barn burner to go further.
Climo..more storms just go north and east compared to south and west. ICON is either going to score a big win or a big fail...which I’m going with the latter. Now into the extended, one can usually assume if it hits Florida it’s prob not gonna go deep inland for Atlanta or western NC it usually trends east into the Sandhills of NC. Just my two cents save it.
So this thing isn't going north with that ridge building in place... models tend to break ridges down too quick, good 'ol SER is usually stronger than advertised, as @Arcc has been saying over and over, if this system gets stronger there is more of a likelihood that it pumps that ridge more and pushes it further west. Just my 2 cents worth, I don't care what you do with it. ...Carry on
Henry2326
Member
Good explanation.
euro
Henry2326
Member
As stout as the high, I think the only chance is the ridge retracting northward.....or the models have it wrong is more likely. The models have ticked this thing north for the past 48 hours. Just saying, it might continue doing that.,,.not to NJ, but possibly Jax. I hear ya on the science, but the models are chasing this thing.
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Euro:
pcbjr
Member
Folks tend to forget to look NW and up top ... great post!
Phil
Fountainguy97
Member
Dorian now looks the part of a struggling TS. Gone is the solid CDO and it has given way to spotty hot towers.
You can see the dry air slowly eating away at dorians moisture envelope. The core is now reduced to pop up towers as it tries to fend it off.
This afternoon Dmin will likely be brutal for Dorian in the coming hours further eroding the core.
The weaker it gets now the slower it will be to recover in the Bahamas. Even so we could easily be looking at a strengthening TS or minimal cane on approach to Florida.
You can see the dry air slowly eating away at dorians moisture envelope. The core is now reduced to pop up towers as it tries to fend it off.
This afternoon Dmin will likely be brutal for Dorian in the coming hours further eroding the core.
The weaker it gets now the slower it will be to recover in the Bahamas. Even so we could easily be looking at a strengthening TS or minimal cane on approach to Florida.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Probably closer to a cat 2 given Dorian's small size which will skew MSLP high relative to the amt of wind.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Euro:
Pretty much matches the track on all the other models except for the ICON. I think the real problem could be what happens if it does go across Florida and into the Gulf.
Euro 144 hours:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Also note that Dorian's center is actually > 100 km northeast of the 0-6 hr forecast points because they center reformed near 15N/62W.
What? The Euro initialized it further SW than it presently is?
Henry2326
Member
You are about to find out....,Euro. Lol
Euro has it about to hit the Gulf Coast @168 hours.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Euro has it about to hit the Gulf Coast @168 hours.
The double boink!
How many other storms have hit the US three times? This one could hit Puerto Rico, Florida and go into the GOM for a third.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep the center of Dorian is actually one island to the north in the Lesser Antilles chain and the latest NHC advisory package confirmed a center relocation of >100 km to the north.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It really can't be overstated how favorable the upper-level environment will be for Dorian when it reaches the Bahamas in 3-4 days being flanked by upper lows over multiple quadrants. I'm worried if Dorian actually ticks even a little further north still its outflow will also be able to tap into the mid-latitude jet in addition to the upper level lows that will already provide amazing ventilation. (yikes)
Also given Dorian's small size and the high oceanic heat content + SSTs in the Bahamas this is a really good recipe for rapid intensification. Residents in the southeastern US & especially Florida probably need to start paying attention because the forecast could change a lot the next few days.
Also given Dorian's small size and the high oceanic heat content + SSTs in the Bahamas this is a really good recipe for rapid intensification. Residents in the southeastern US & especially Florida probably need to start paying attention because the forecast could change a lot the next few days.