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Pattern Anaphylactic August

GeorgiaGirl said:
Does anybody know how much rain got dumped on the Marietta area last night?

There was a little cell that just formed and sat there (specifically on Suntrust Park), then as it was raining out, it was fired back up by an outflow convection. By radar shots and the shots I saw of the park, they had to have had at least 3+ inches dumped on them overnight, as it looked like it wasn't ending anytime soon (because of that, there was a flash flood warning issued).

It also rained pretty hard for me for a bit, but I don't know what the total was yet.

Edit: That total was .59".
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I don't have any kind of rain gauge setup, but it was a lot, multiple storms. A weather underground station near me reported 1.97", but there was more west and south toward Suntrust. The Sandy Plains corridor down to the southwest had a lot, I would guess anywhere from 3-5" depending on location.
 
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Hrrr gets a area of storms that moves east to west from the sea breeze/boundary, atmospheric profiles are juicy so where it rains it will rain a lot, also 20kts of effective bulk shear so may be little organization
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Has the GFS had a wet bias recently. Seems much wetter than other guidance
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I've noticed this too but I wonder if it just doesn't handle convective environment well, it tends to "broad brush" precip amounts (for lack of better way of saying it) and thus it shows large totals. When in reality those totals are far more isolated.... on the other hand I've also notice the CMC and ICON are almost extreme in the other direction, in fact the CMC is down right dry for the next 10 days. Again just my .02 but operational models don't handle convection precip well
 
metwannabe said:
I've noticed this too but I wonder if it just doesn't handle convective environment well, it tends to "broad brush" precip amounts (for lack of better way of saying it) and thus it shows large totals. When in reality those totals are far more isolated.... on the other hand I've also notice the CMC and ICON are almost extreme in the other direction, in fact the CMC is down right dry for the next 10 days. Again just my .02 but operational models don't handle convection precip well
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That’s a great description. If you toggle from the gfs precip 6 hour average to its radar representation you can see where it “broadbrushes” these amounts. I expect some decent rain but I don’t expect 3-5” across the whole SE
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
That’s a great description. If you toggle from the gfs precip 6 hour average to its radar representation you can see where it “broadbrushes” these amounts. I expect some decent rain but I don’t expect 3-5” across the whole SE
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Yeah and I'm sure someone far more knowledgeable than I can give a better scientific explanation, but sometimes I'm just better with the keep it simple rule... Lol

Of course the FV3 has had major issues in the past with qpf, hope that's been resolved or we're in for a treat come Winter
 
WRAL had the chance of storms here at 60% today, higher than yesterday when we actually had some storms, and now they are talking about backing down the chances here today. SMH.
 
Jimmy, it’s happening again!! It’s como!!?00D91FA2-35B9-4E0D-918A-EC33D9B1855D.png854A7367-A41C-4E7F-812F-071607658E09.png
 
After the past several days of bad luck, finally getting a decent t'storm right now. Had some decent wind ahead of it.

Did make it up to 90*F today.
 
Still basically dry here. Hoping to get something from the tropics to bring us some rain. These pop up storms are not getting the job done here.
 
I heard one rumble of thunder, but no storm or rain for me today. Meanwhile, western Wake got hit and had some flooding. Guess the storms were just very isolated, and the forecast was hard to pin down. First, they had the chance at 60%, more than yesterday when I got a storm, and then it was decreased, but parts of Wake still ended up with storms and flooding. Just funny how it works out.
 
Currently on a four day rain streak here. Streak could have ended yesterday but Thursday nights storms persisted past midnight keeping it alive.

Really hope I can get something here today at some point. Still got plenty of time for that to happen. If I do get something today, tomorrow looks to be a active day here so I hope I can make it to a least day 6 on my rain streak.
 
Wet period is done. Mostly isolated storms at best now for the next week to 10 days. Ground never really got wet here during this so called wet period.
 
JHS said:
Wet period is done. Mostly isolated storms at best now for the next week to 10 days. Ground never really got wet here during this so called wet period.
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Umm it ain’t over tommorow with energy swinging through allowing cooler air aloft and better deep layer shear
 
BufordWX said:
Really hope I can get something here today at some point. Still got plenty of time for that to happen.
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Time is starting to run out to get my 5th straight day of rain. Meanwhile a new shower is starting to develop just south of me this might be my chance.32B78F25-239F-410D-A81D-ACE093DCABF7.png
 
Storms already around here this morning. I have achieved my 6th straight day of rainfall thanks to this as well.AF89D9BD-9BDE-4235-B734-636A0149C365.png
 
NoSnowATL said:
Was this forecasted? Woke up and looked at the radar and was surprised.


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Models are busting pretty hard with that disturbance in Ga this morning and that's likely to have some effects on a lot of people's forecasts today through tomorrow morning

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NoSnowATL said:
Was this forecasted? Woke up and looked at the radar and was surprised.


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This surprised me as well the thunder is what woke me up. I am already at 1 inch of rain in less then an hour so I will gladly take this.
 
Trying to not get excited about rain chances today but I got a feeling

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Lol I knew that area of rain would stay, hrrr has been to low on MLcape and shows unnecessary DP mixing, typical hrrr, needa watch if that area of rain and storms can potentially try to make a run at a wannabe disorganized/ugly QLCS
 
The MCV currently dropping moderate to heavy rainfall between Atlanta and Columbia might limit if not halt anything that wants to get going in the afternoon today around here. I’m not going to complain though still got some rain falling and coming up on 1.5 inches of rain. I also saw areas to my east have seen 3 inches of rain already this morning from a really heavy band of rain that formed there.

Storm coverage looks to be more isolated around here starting Tuesday, but FFC, in their morning discussion, mentioned the potential for nocturnal MCSs as we get towards the end of the week into the weekend. That might be something to track later in the week.
 
BufordWX said:
The MCV currently dropping moderate to heavy rainfall between Atlanta and Columbia might limit if not halt anything that wants to get going in the afternoon today around here. I’m not going to complain though still got some rain falling and coming up on 1.5 inches of rain. I also saw areas to my east have seen 3 inches of rain already this morning from a really heavy band of rain that formed there.

Storm coverage looks to be more isolated around here starting Tuesday, but FFC, in their morning discussion, mentioned the potential for nocturnal MCSs as we get towards the end of the week into the weekend. That might be something to track later in the week.
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I’m awaiting my outflow boundaries from this, it’ll bring the goods as this collapses
 
Storms beginning to develop everywhere ahead of that MCV, could be a few isolated severe storms even with low DCAPE and low end effective bulk shear C0A89732-8BB5-4D3A-AA7B-58891ABC3321.jpeg
 
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Those of you who score on a rain drop today
 
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