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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

Outflow boundary heading south from this nice cell, 19 miles out.... can it spark a shower? Please
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Sounds like Madison County, IN got hit hard by a tornado. Listening to the scanner feed.
 
A strong tornado ripped through the core of Dayton, OH last night.

It's total devestation in parts of the city based on the pictures I saw. Fortunately, no deaths and only a few minor injuries.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/80000-power-deaths-reported-ohio-tornado/story?id=63314869

BTW, it's been a crazy season with several large population centers getting hit directly by these intense storms. First Tulsa, then St. Louis, then DC (that was technically a mesocyclone, but still) and now Dayton.

Never mind the twisters down here that hit Columbus, Macon, etc.
 
SouthATLwx said:
A strong tornado ripped through the core of Dayton, OH last night.

It's total devestation in parts of the city based on the pictures I saw. Fortunately, no deaths and only a few minor injuries.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/80000-power-deaths-reported-ohio-tornado/story?id=63314869

BTW, it's been a crazy season with several large population centers getting hit directly by these intense storms. First Tulsa, then St. Louis, then DC (that was technically a mesocyclone, but still) and now Dayton.

Never mind the twisters down here that hit Columbus, Macon, etc.
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According to an article on accuweather, there was 1 fatality in Celina.
 
I know the severe weather last week and this week have not been in the SE, but since there isn't much to talk about for us right now, and since the latest severe thread was posted a while back, I thought we could discuss the severe threats in other regions here instead of making a separate thread for it.

Anyway, another moderate risk today, mostly for northern MO.

1559062582706.png
 
Almost all of PA under a tornado watch. Don't see that often.

1559070865974.png

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western New Jersey
Extreme east central Ohio
Pennsylvania
The extreme northern West Virginia Panhandle

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
1000 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this
afternoon from Ohio into Pennsylvania, and storms will spread
generally eastward through this evening. The storm environment will
be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds. A more favorable environment for tornadoes is
expected across northern and eastern Pennsylvania into western New
Jersey as the low levels destabilize.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Franklin
PA to 35 miles north northeast of Trenton NJ. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
 
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Looks like another one coming for OK and KS. Could be a busy night.

1559071074435.png
 
Tornado watch out for the moderate risk area in MO and KS, too.

1559071412871.png

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northeastern Kansas
Northwestern Missouri

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely

SUMMARY...Initially elevated storms could become rooted near the
surface along a slow-moving front from northeastern Kansas into
northern Missouri this afternoon. Additional storms are expected to
form and spread northeastward into the watch area from the southwest
by mid-late afternoon. Supercells are expected with very large hail
and potentially a few tornadoes, especially with storms able move
along the front. Upscale growth into a cluster is also possible
late this afternoon/evening, with an increasing threat for damaging
winds.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles south southeast of
Kirksville MO to 25 miles south southwest of Manhattan KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
 
Tornado Warning
PAC005-063-281945-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.TO.W.0011.190528T1921Z-190528T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
321 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania...
Southeastern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania...

* Until 345 PM EDT..

* At 320 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 9 miles southeast of Ford City, or 11 miles southeast
of Kittanning, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Indiana and Homer City around 345 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Chevy
Chase Heights, Armagh, Lucerne Mines, Creekside, Atwood, Elderton,
Shelocta, Clymer, Yellow Creek State Park and Brush Vly.
 
Maybe it is better just to use the other severe thread, but change the title to something like General Severe Discussion and use it for discussing events outside the SE. And just use this one for discussing May weather in the SE. Now we have folks posting on both.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Maybe it is better just to use the other severe thread, but change the title to something like General Severe Discussion and use it for discussing events outside the SE. And just use this one for discussing May weather in the SE. Now we have folks posting on both.
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I have never seen someone so obsessed with thread titles. You seem to be perseverating again.
 
Rain Cold said:
I have never seen someone so obsessed with thread titles. You seem to be perseverating again.
Click to expand...

It's annoying to have to go back and forth between two threads that are discussing the same subject. Another reason having a banter thread and a whining thread is unnecessary.
 
All of the midlands of SC under a red flag warning. The rest of SC and GA have special weather statement for fire danger
 
That outflow boundary that move through last night packed a pretty good punch. I've seen several big limbs snapped, as big as my leg, and even one tree down. Sucks all that and not a drop of rain to go with it.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
That outflow boundary that move through last night packed a pretty good punch. I've seen several big limbs snapped, as big as my leg, and even one tree down. Sucks all that and not a drop of rain to go with it.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
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Inverted Vs do that ☹️
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
At this point we need a MCS
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Yeah and read this summary, if something don't pop soon SE on the verge of serious issues.

Southeast Drought Summary
The subtropical ridge left most of the Southeast with no rainfall this week and several record maximum temperatures. The hot weather increased evaporation and dried soils. Only isolated areas, mostly in the Carolinas and Florida, had any rain at all and amounts were mostly less than half an inch. D0-D1 expanded from northern Florida to southern Virginia. Dry and hot conditions prevailed for the last 2 to 4 weeks, with below-normal precipitation noted in many areas for the last 3 months. Some of the drought indicators, especially the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI), and soil moisture indices, indicated D2 was imminent, but D2 was not added this week. May 26 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports indicated that 77% of the topsoil moisture in Georgia was short or very short (dry or very dry), up from 41% last week. Other states had similar increases: Alabama increased from 12% to 47%, Florida increased from 42% to 64%, North Carolina increased from 29% to 60%, South Carolina increased from 48% to 86%, and Virginia increased from 3% to 26%. Subsoil moisture conditions were just as bad, with short to very short subsoil up to 33% of Alabama, 52% of Florida, 55% of Georgia, 14% of Mississippi, 50% of North Carolina, and 76% of South Carolina. According to media reports, Brunswick County in southeastern North Carolina issued a notice to "use water wisely" due to developing drought conditions and increased demand, and was considering instituting water conservation measures. Nearby Pender County restricted water use due to an ongoing water shortage emergency in southeastern parts of the county caused by high demand, hot weather, and limits in their distribution system. In Georgia, reports from Coffee County included hay reserves disappearing, soils drying, and heat stress to crops; planting stopped on non-irrigated acres and irrigation was turned on for irrigated acres.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah and read this summary, if something don't pop soon SE on the verge of serious issues.

Southeast Drought Summary
The subtropical ridge left most of the Southeast with no rainfall this week and several record maximum temperatures. The hot weather increased evaporation and dried soils. Only isolated areas, mostly in the Carolinas and Florida, had any rain at all and amounts were mostly less than half an inch. D0-D1 expanded from northern Florida to southern Virginia. Dry and hot conditions prevailed for the last 2 to 4 weeks, with below-normal precipitation noted in many areas for the last 3 months. Some of the drought indicators, especially the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI), and soil moisture indices, indicated D2 was imminent, but D2 was not added this week. May 26 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports indicated that 77% of the topsoil moisture in Georgia was short or very short (dry or very dry), up from 41% last week. Other states had similar increases: Alabama increased from 12% to 47%, Florida increased from 42% to 64%, North Carolina increased from 29% to 60%, South Carolina increased from 48% to 86%, and Virginia increased from 3% to 26%. Subsoil moisture conditions were just as bad, with short to very short subsoil up to 33% of Alabama, 52% of Florida, 55% of Georgia, 14% of Mississippi, 50% of North Carolina, and 76% of South Carolina. According to media reports, Brunswick County in southeastern North Carolina issued a notice to "use water wisely" due to developing drought conditions and increased demand, and was considering instituting water conservation measures. Nearby Pender County restricted water use due to an ongoing water shortage emergency in southeastern parts of the county caused by high demand, hot weather, and limits in their distribution system. In Georgia, reports from Coffee County included hay reserves disappearing, soils drying, and heat stress to crops; planting stopped on non-irrigated acres and irrigation was turned on for irrigated acres.
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Hate to say it, but we might need a TC
 
SoutheastRidge said:
How about just a good old fashioned cold front ? Does the south not get cold fronts in May ?
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Sure do, in fact one will blow through here this weekend.... problem with cold fronts, unless they stall, only scattered storms/showers for a brief time as they pass, then they are followed by even lower DP's which means what little rain fell is wiped out fairly quick. No doubt we are going to need a TC or a stalled out front with waves of LP to stop the desert encroachment.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
How about just a good old fashioned cold front ? Does the south not get cold fronts in May ?
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Only luck with them now Friday/Saturday is widespread multicellular clusters, but the NAM shows weak Capping which would likely isolate storms a bit, but any that do develop could really be nasty with fat CAPE profiles and such large DCAPE + colder air aloft and deep layer shear
 
metwannabe said:
Sure do, in fact one will blow through here this weekend.... problem with cold fronts, unless they stall, only scattered storms/showers for a brief time as they pass, then they are followed by even lower DP's which means what little rain fell is wiped out fairly quick. No doubt we are going to need a TC or a stalled out front with waves of LP to stop the desert encroachment.
Click to expand...

Yep, summer cold fronts suck in the SE unless they stall out and become a focal point for Convective initiation
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hate to say it, but we might need a TC
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Give me a remnant TS and I think we will be good. Maybe have it stall too. Just no Irma-like repeats. That storm was bad on rainfall totals for a TC and ended up being more of a pain than anything. I think we are headed into a new drought period though, so I think we will have widespread D2 by the end of summer unless we get a wetter pattern.
 
metwannabe said:
Maybe tomorrow produces after all, we shall see...

View attachment 19934
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Not a bad setup, will probably be more messier with lack of Capping, could see some nice structure since low level wind shear will be weak, but deep layer wind shear will be somewhat strong, not saying LP supercells for sure but the environment is ok for them, likely more multicellular clusters with lots of cool pool interaction since there will be such big amounts of downdraft CAPE and high LCLs/inverted Vs, good day for shelfies !!!!! At this point I’d take the severe storms if it means rain
 
My final rainfall total for the month of May is 1.82”.

Ended the month with 10 straight days of no rain. Would be 18, but I got a surprise shower last Monday that gave me .01”.:D

This month brings me to 23.56” for 2019. Still hovering just above average for the year (23.2”). Here’s to this dry spell hopefully ending soon.
 
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