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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

I only received 22 drops last night ! Pathetic
 
Well shut my mouth.... I'll keep you posted on the exact number of raindrops that fall
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metwannabe said:
Well shut my mouth.... I'll keep you posted on the exact number of raindrops that fall
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Quick update, rain shield deployed and zero drops made to the surface.... false alarm. Carry on

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I just wonder if at some point, we flip to a rainy , wet pattern , for end of June/ Early July time frame? We just need the hated SE Ridge, to become a Bermuda high! Y’all remember those?
 
Tarheel1 said:
I just wonder if at some point, we flip to a rainy , wet pattern , for end of June/ Early July time frame? We just need the hated SE Ridge, to become a Bermuda high! Y’all remember those?
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It's possible. I have saw a hot and dry late May turn cooler and wetter for June through August twice, in 1989 and 1994. The turn in 1994 was spectacular here in Jonesville, with 7 inches of rain in a 5 hour period from training storms.
 
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first time this year I've seen that icon on the NWS forecast. "sunny and hot, with a high near 97"
 
metwannabe said:
Some expansion of D0, I think if this ridge is as beastly as advertised next weeks map could really show the effects....

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The drought monitor is so interesting to me. I wish there was more information too bad 1300 doesn't post anymore and could shed some light on it since it says to contact state climate offices for more info

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SD said:
The drought monitor is so interesting to me. I wish there was more information too bad 1300 doesn't post anymore and could shed some light on it since it says to contact state climate offices for more info

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I completely agree and I'm pretty ignorant about it but I'm assuming it's based off of water table, lakes and reservoirs and river levels. Or based solely on the amount of precipitation in an area over a certain Amana time compared to average. I'm curious too because my dying grass and the fact that local farmers here already are irrigating crops would tell you we're already beyond abnormally dry.

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metwannabe said:
I completely agree and I'm pretty ignorant about it but I'm assuming it's based off of water table, lakes and reservoirs and river levels. Or based solely on the amount of precipitation in an area over a certain Amana time compared to average. I'm curious too because my dying grass and the fact that local farmers here already are irrigating crops would tell you we're already beyond abnormally dry.

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Yeah i feel like the wet late summer into early spring may be what's keeping us from showing up on the monitor. Im with you though, most lawns here are dormant and the crops in most fields simply germinated and have been stuck atva couple inches tall for the last month. Saturday will be D14 with 0.00 and only roughly .5 over the last 30 thats dry to me and approaching the territory of it becoming an issue. Today is the first run of the EPS that gives me a little bit of enthusiasm going forward.

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As of yesterday, ATL still had a surplus of 1.40" (talk about a precipitation gradient!).

So technically, a ways to go before any drought concerns.
 
EV_WS said:
I did find this. It seems to shed some light on how they calculate severity. Somewhat a blend of various "Ranges" and calculate as a percentile. You can click each of the 5 "Ranges" and use the percentage on how they weigh and blend. IDK.... Is this helpful?
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/AboutUSDM/AbouttheData/DroughtClassification.aspx
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You know I'm gonna pull a brick here and say, just like with severe weather, there are too many levels. If you look at D1 that's problematic and yet is only the 2nd out of 5

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SD said:
Yeah i feel like the wet late summer into early spring may be what's keeping us from showing up on the monitor. Im with you though, most lawns here are dormant and the crops in most fields simply germinated and have been stuck atva couple inches tall for the last month. Saturday will be D14 with 0.00 and only roughly .5 over the last 30 thats dry to me and approaching the territory of it becoming an issue. Today is the first run of the EPS that gives me a little bit of enthusiasm going forward.

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See wamby thread

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At least you won’t have to wash you vehicles for a while.


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BHS1975 said:
At least you won’t have to wash you vehicles for a while.


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The dusty Sahara around here, says otherwise!?
 
Really starting to look like we may get into a pattern that will allow some fronts to attempt to move into the region late next week but get stuck in a west to east orientation.

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SD said:
Really starting to look like we may get into a pattern that will allow some fronts to attempt to move into the region late next week but get stuck in a west to east orientation.

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In other words, Summer has arrived, lol.
 
SD said:
Really starting to look like we may get into a pattern that will allow some fronts to attempt to move into the region late next week but get stuck in a west to east orientation.

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GSP is saying that is a small chance that we get into a pattern which might allow the MCS track to come into NC and SC late next week.
 
JHS said:
GSP is saying that is a small chance that we get into a pattern which might allow the MCS track to come into NC and SC late next week.
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Just don’t fall for it! I’m telling you, it’s like waiting on a clipper for snow in our area, you’ll be highly disappointed!
 
The average number of 90*F+ days for Atlanta in May is 2 days. If the current forecast doesn't change, it's on track to see 9 consecutive 90*F+ days, all of them consecutive. While the most ever is 11 days (also in 1996), this year should break the record for the most consecutive 90*F+ days in May.

And for yet another comparison, May 2018 tied with May 1996 for the hottest on record (temperature of 74.8*F) As KATL sits at 74*4*F as of 5/24, that record looks to get shattered. Even assuming just a high of 90*F and a low of just 70*F the rest of the month (low ball), the average temp should end up at about 75.6*F.

Meanwhile, for today, the record high of 93*F which should get broken with a forecast high of 95*F.
 
Anyone else notice this on the air quality index last night? It was "hazardous" for a while in the upstate. strange.
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BHS1975 said:
Why is KCAE so much warmer than the surrounding areas?

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It’s the devils armpit or crotch, your choice!
 
Tired of rain. Take it Winston or anyone else please. Hard to see weeks of dry weather being this close to the mtns.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Can’t wait! ?View attachment 19732
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The above Euro map is for maximums for today. As expected, most of this won't even come close to verifying. 109 at Waycross? 104 in Brunswick? 98 in ATL? 104 SAV? 100 in Greenwood? 100 in Charlotte? I don't think so! Yes, we're at or near record highs in many places and I'm not trying to minimize that, but let's just say that that Euro (and other runs, too) was a bit too enthusiastic. What I read from a pro-met was that its dewpoints have been too low thus making the air drier than reality and thus being warmer than reality.
Also, yesterday's Euro had lows in the low 80s in much of SE GA and S SC for this morning. They were near record high minimums but about 5 cooler than the Euro.
 
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FWIW (not much), the HRRR hints at some isolated pop-up convection this afternoon, especially across central GA/AL.
 
SouthATLwx said:
The average number of 90*F+ days for Atlanta in May is 2 days. If the current forecast doesn't change, it's on track to see 9 consecutive 90*F+ days, all of them consecutive. While the most ever is 11 days (also in 1996), this year should break the record for the most consecutive 90*F+ days in May.

And for yet another comparison, May 2018 tied with May 1996 for the hottest on record (temperature of 74.8*F) As KATL sits at 74*4*F as of 5/24, that record looks to get shattered. Even assuming just a high of 90*F and a low of just 70*F the rest of the month (low ball), the average temp should end up at about 75.6*F.

Meanwhile, for today, the record high of 93*F which should get broken with a forecast high of 95*F.
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With Friday looking more iffy as far as 90*F+ potential, that would mean just 8 consecutive 90*F+ days and only tying the previous record in 1996.
 
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