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Observations Early 2019 S/E Heatwave Duration Record

BirdManDoomW

BirdManDoomW

WilkesboroDude
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Figure it’s time for a thread with Van Denton saying it could be the longest duration heat wave in over 100 years for NC. Post your records, obs, fires, moaning here.
 
To specify, record for the earliest long lived heatwave for GSO and nearby.
 
This is a very worthy thread as we're talking high potential of the worst for so early in the season in terms of a combination of intensity (highest on record for May), duration (5 or so days as opposed to just a 1-2 day event), and extensiveness (large portion of the SE).
 
We had better hope this is not a harbinger of what's to come this summer, or we will be looking at another historical summer. #deathby1000
 
Welp, my only complaint is that the bass won’t bite as much during this extremely hot weather, especially since it’s post spawn, but yet again there under bridges and tree lines :)
 
Not sure if RDU can go over 99 to break the all time may record. Think someone in the Fay to GSB corridor goes into the 100-102 range though. The only real thing that could hold temps back could be some debris clouds coming down in the NW flow

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
While it looks like us in AL will miss the brunt of the heat, it still looks plenty hot. Thankfully Ill be on the beach for a work conference most of next week.
 
Mountains like Boone NC are going to torch beyond 80 degrees. That’s hot for them. Long duration too if no storm.
 
Blistering 59 degrees this morning! ??
 
7+ days of 90+ is noteworthy for up this way. Dangerous heat. Splash pads and pools will be crowded. I’m going to Carowinds.
 
Watching that circle of snow just demolish the black hills of South Dakota. Rain all around a small area of winter storm warnings.
 
The 12Z Euro still has the heatwave starting Fri 5/24 with mod to high 90s in many places but now has 100s extending all the way to Thu 5/30 instead of just to 5/29. The Euro continues to be significantly hotter than the GFS. From what I've read, the euro is exhibiting a warm bias due to it having dewpoints too low/too dry air that warms up too quickly. But even after shaving off a few degrees from the Euro, it still has low 100s in many places 5/25-30! History appears to be on our doorstep.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z Euro still has the heatwave starting Fri 5/24 with mod to high 90s in many places but now has 100s extending all the way to Thu 5/30 instead of just to 5/29. The Euro continues to be significantly hotter than the GFS. From what I've read, the euro is exhibiting a warm bias due to it having dewpoints too low/too dry air that warms up too quickly. But even after shaving off a few degrees from the Euro, it still has low 100s in many places 5/25-30! History appears to be on our doorstep.
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Oh boy I can't wait! Why can't we make history when it comes to cold and snow?
 
Charlotte NC will have a top 10 hottest day on record for May by next week. -Brad P.
 
CPC week 3/4 is for above normal temps across the s/e
 
Vertically stacked ridge at all levels of the atmosphere. - Brad P. #doom
 
I think Charlotte hits top 2 hottest temperature ever recorded for the month of May.
 
On the bright side it appears the humidity levels will be lower so it will be a "drier heat" with the heat index close to the actual temperature.
 
FROM MY PEEPS AT THE NWS BMX

THIS IS JUST IN TIME FOR BASEBALL ALL-STARS :eek: SHOW IS GOING TO BE HOT OUT ON THE DIAMONDS
LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED SYNOPTIC PATTERN REVEALS THAT
RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO FOR EACH RESPECTIVE DAY WITH THE ONLY
LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN OCCURRING ON THE OFF-CHANCE THAT A POP-
UP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. WE MAY HAVE A
FEW OF THESE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF HIGHER QUALITY
MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE KEPT POPS <10% AT THIS
TIME.

BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY THE H5 RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND TO ~595
DECAMETERS, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY 2-7 PERIOD
OCCURRING SAT/SUN WHERE WIDESPREAD 90S (100 DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS) IS EXPECTED. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY NEAR OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS WE'LL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM, SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT THE HWO
AGAIN TONIGHT. NONETHELESS, IMPACTS FROM THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HOT/DRY WEATHER WILL CERTAINLY BE FELT BY THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WHO
HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONARY ACTION TO AVOID
OVEREXPOSURE AND DEHYDRATION. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND DRY WEATHER
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK IS
QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
 
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
419 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-240900-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
419 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...RECORD HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

An extended period of unseasonably hot temperatures across north and
central Georgia can be expected beginning Friday through the
middle of next week.

Widespread high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected,
with some locations exceeding 100 degrees especially along and
south of a Columbus to Macon to Warrenton line in middle Georgia.
These temperatures are around 15 degrees above normal for late
May. In addition, little relief is expected during the night as
temperatures only fall into the 70s for most locations and no
precip is expected in the area until possibly Wednesday or
Thursday. The unusual heat, this early in the season, will likely
break several daily high temperature records across the region and
will put all-time monthly records in jeopardy over the Memorial
Day weekend.

Please take extra precautions for the heat by remaining hydrated, avoiding
prolonged exposure to the sun, and limiting strenuous activities
when spending time outdoors. Also, Look Before You Lock, and
don`t leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle.
Click to expand...
Ugh.
 
ATL managed an intra-hour 90*F today, while it was 91*F here.

Big difference today was with the humidity. Dewpoints hung around 70*F much of the day (versus low-mid 60s the past several days).
 
It’s gonna be a hot one folks. What would it take to see a surprise snow the next day like on the show Hey Arnold?
 
Models seem to be finally coming into agreement with breaking down the ridge by Wednesday.

And with more of a "cool down" and wet pattern, as temps drop down back to the upper 80s/around 90*F.
 
There's a little bit of good news here. The last 7 GFS runs ending with today's 12Z had a high of 98 at KSAV. The actual high today was 96. So, even the GFS, which has generally been not quite as hot as the Euro, was 2 F too warm today. Hopefully, that's a sign that the even hotter Euro can be thrown out due to too low dewpoints per a met I read. Nevertheless, the latest GFS still has hottest highs at KSAV at 100-103 the next 7 days. Even after taking 2 F away, the implication is that it is going to be quite difficult to not hit 100 on several days upcoming. So, I expect that to occur. Let's see what happens.
 
GaWx said:
There's a little bit of good news here. The last 7 GFS runs ending with today's 12Z had a high of 98 at KSAV. The actual high today was 96. So, even the GFS, which has generally been not quite as hot as the Euro, was 2 F too warm today. Hopefully, that's a sign that the even hotter Euro can be thrown out due to too low dewpoints per a met I read. Nevertheless, the latest GFS still has hottest highs at KSAV at 100-103 the next 7 days. Even after taking 2 F away, the implication is that it is going to be quite difficult to not hit 100 on several days upcoming. So, I expect that to occur. Let's see what happens.
Click to expand...
Echo in part ...
Baby steps, but NWS Gainesville isn't posting any 100's for the 1st time in days (yes, 99º is close, but ...) ... when models get closer (yes, NWS isn't a model but the few I've had a chance to even look at are doing likewise), it can be a pretty good indication, and even TWC local has gone from 7 days of 100º+ to just 2 ... now all we need is some rain in the picture ...
Baby steps, but better than waddling in the other direction ...
Best to all, and now on to BBQ (1st night for real food in a week ...) ... :cool:
 
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