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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

Probably one of the shortest discussions I've ever seen (certainly the shortest long tern discussion), lol...

050
FXUS62 KFFC 181820
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
220 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
The upper ridge of high pressure will shift to our east putting the
CWA back in a southwest flow. A weak short wave is progged on all
models to move into the Tennessee Valley late Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night. This will bring scattered showers/tstorms to north and
west-central Georgia Sunday evening and into Sunday night.
Instability is not that impressive with MUCAPES of 400 or less but
still enough to keep the mention of thunder going through Sunday
night.

17

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
 
Couple storms on radar...sea breeze flying inland. Maybe we eek something out

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SD said:
Hope so! No kidding this is a terrible pattern. The 12z euro may have been worse than any run all winter

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This is slightly too hot for me...by at least 20 degrees.
 
I got maybe a hundred drops of rain this evening. I’ll count that as a win in this crap loaded pattern.


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pcbjr said:
Winter hell; try the last 12 months solid ... :mad:
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However, the warmest and most humid days in winter are usually much better than the best day in summer from a comfy standpoint. Even the worst days in winter are quite tolerable and are often conducive to outdoor activities.

Meanwhile, the models still say the ridiculous heat is coming.
 
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Had some decent wind around 2pm today several trees down in the city from what i read(I'm in a suburb NE of Dallas) storms seemed to be strengthening as they came in and kind of surprised me since they had been pretty unimpressive through most of the metro to the west

Saw this at work where I've been since

20190518-193042.jpg
 
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GaWx said:
However, the warmest and most humid days in winter are usually much better than the best day in summer from a comfy standpoint. Even the worst days in winter are quite tolerable and are often conducive to outdoor activities.

Meanwhile, the models still say the ridiculous heat is coming.
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Besides, we're getting used to the warm anomalies taking aim at the southeast. It's going to be that way the rest of our lives.
 
GaWx said:
However, the warmest and most humid days in winter are usually much better than the best day in summer from a comfy standpoint. Even the worst days in winter are quite tolerable and are often conducive to outdoor activities.

Meanwhile, the models still say the ridiculous heat is coming.
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Sun angle definitely makes a difference.

To your point, 90*F/70*F in Atlanta feels so much hotter than 90*F/70*F in Detroit, because of the latitude.
 
It will be kind of nice to have a break in the heat. Highs in the 60s Mon and Tues with lows in the 40s/50s. Then the heat returns again midweek.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Wish we could have that over here. Humid already this morning and can't be outside longer than 5 minutes before breaking out in a sweat.
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And being mugged by deer flies....is it winter yet?

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The hottest I see on your GFS for me is 92 over the whole run. Pretty hot for sure but that doesn’t seem that unusual.
 
I haven't gotten a good look at things because there's no reason for me to as much anymore but this coming heatwave seems to be mainly Carolinas (okay maybe mainly SC), East Georgia, and Florida based.

In fact I'm just glancing and I'd say that now. I'd actually include Atlanta, but areas northwest of Atlanta and far North Georgia are saved. I have to imagine if we were talking about this this time next month, there'd be nobody that was lucky.

This might honestly shatter some records if it were to come true as it is as it's absolutely unreal (I feel for Phil here):

1558282499738.png

12z isn't as potent but still insane for those areas:

1558282549127.png
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I haven't gotten a good look at things because there's no reason for me to as much anymore but this coming heatwave seems to be mainly Carolinas (okay maybe mainly SC), East Georgia, and Florida based.

In fact I'm just glancing and I'd say that now. I'd actually include Atlanta, but areas northwest of Atlanta and far North Georgia are saved. I have to imagine if we were talking about this this time next month, there'd be nobody that was lucky.

This might honestly shatter some records if it were to come true as it is as it's absolutely unreal (I feel for Phil here):

View attachment 19641

12z isn't as potent but still insane for those areas:

View attachment 19642
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Keep in mind that the high would in most cases be a couple of degrees hotter than these 18Z numbers. With that being the case, the N 1/3 of FL, GA from ATL-AHN south, most of SC, southern NC, and S AL would be near if not at alltime record highs for May of upper 90s to low 100s if the 12Z GFS were to verify. Hopefully it is showing a slight warm bias here, but it’s almost certainly still going to be very hot, regardless. Even middle 90s in May are much warmer than normal.
Also, that map is just for 5/25. 5/26 and 5/27 are also very hot on this run with some places being even hotter.
 
To allude what GaWx just stated... it's supposed to be even more brutal towards Monday/Tuesday of next week.
The EURO, verbatim from earlier was absolutely scorch city ... I mean insane heat.

Charleston's May All Time High is 100.
the All Time record high is 105 (8/1/99).
It's also been quite a few years since Charleston officially recorded a 100 degree reading.

It's the worse setup because of a strong upper ridge closing off with fairly robust WNW downpipe which will lend credence to the sea breeze being pinned to the coast for most of the day during this stretch.
 

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Latest radar and model trends suggests that low chance of rain tonight / tomorrow may end up being a big fat goose egg.
 
Stormsfury said:
To allude what GaWx just stated... it's supposed to be even more brutal towards Monday/Tuesday of next week.
The EURO, verbatim from earlier was absolutely scorch city ... I mean insane heat.
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The models (EURO included) have hinted at the pattern beginning to break down by mid-next week.

We'll see if that translates to *some* relief from a temperature standpoint.
 
SouthATLwx said:
The models (EURO included) have hinted at the pattern beginning to break down by mid-next week.

We'll see if that translates to *some* relief from a temperature standpoint.
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We'll see if that can indeed happen. Problem here is that it's been so bone dry here, and just escalates the problem. Efficient heat maker with very little ground moisture to evaporate off.
 
SouthATLwx said:
The models (EURO included) have hinted at the pattern beginning to break down by mid-next week.

We'll see if that translates to *some* relief from a temperature standpoint.
Click to expand...

Hopefully. However, even if so, the “damage” already will have been done by then in terms of an historic long lasting heatwave if the model consensus were to be right. I mean a four or five day intense heatwave like what model consensus is suggesting is more than enough to be amongst the worst, if not THE worst on record, for this time of year.
 
The 12Z Euro is very hot on Fri 5/24 and downright intolerable 5/25-8 for a good portion of the SE. Needless to say with practically no rain, the drought will be worsening.
 
What the 12z GFS-FV3 shows for ATL at 18z

5/25 = 96*F
5/26 = 99*F
5/27 = 98*F
5/28 = 96*F
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z Euro is very hot on Fri 5/24 and downright intolerable 5/25-8 for a good portion of the SE. Needless to say with practically no rain, the drought will be worsening.
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Turned the sprinklers off today. Will probably have better luck with it going dormant than trying to string it along.

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SD said:
Turned the sprinklers off today. Will probably have better luck with it going dormant than trying to string it along.
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I didn’t think of that option. I don’t know if I should do that with St. Augustine grass. I’m currently watering 3 days a week late at night.
 
GaWx said:
I didn’t think of that option. I don’t know if I should do that with St. Augustine grass. I’m currently watering 3 days a week late at night.
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Yeah Id be careful with St Augustine. From what I remember it loves water and im not sure if dormancy is an option in summer

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