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Pattern April Chasing ???⛈⛈⛈

I don’t think this thing is going to disappear. It may end up being rain but it won’t disappear. Expect NW trend. I don’t think this thing ends up a dud coastal but it certainly could. Right now I would favor a Miller A track just off the Carolina coast. Right now we have it tracking NE accross north central Florida and I don’t think a track like that will stick
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I don’t think this thing is going to disappear. It may end up being rain but it won’t disappear. Expect NW trend. I don’t think this thing ends up a dud coastal but it certainly could. Right now I would favor a Miller A track just off the Carolina coast. Right now we have it tracking NE accross north central Florida and I don’t think a track like that will stick
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Yeah I'm sure it's going to come NW unless we see it continue to suppress the next 3 days. Whether the cold remains or not is to be seen.
 
A bigger picture not mentioned that I believe, is that our pattern is changing. If this storm misses, it’s the start of a very long drought and wildfire season. If it’s moisture rich to the Tennessee line, expect more wetness to continue for a little longer. This particular storm to me is more important than snow amounts. Just my two cents bare with me.
 
Yo @Zander98al this sounding is definitely supportive of rotations inside that squall line, wind profiles support a squall line but any storm that breaks up a little or somehow finds a way to develop ahead, could produce a tornado, anyways there is some capping but notice the lift under the CAP, this will try and break it, otherwise that is another limiting factor for storms ahead of the line aswell, but I don’t like that moist layer extending all the way to 750 hPa, decent helicity and very low LCLs
16A484CC-05FB-44B9-990A-24294750EC33.png
 
BirdManDoomW said:
A bigger picture not mentioned that I believe, is that our pattern is changing. If this storm misses, it’s the start of a very long drought and wildfire season. If it’s moisture rich to the Tennessee line, expect more wetness to continue for a little longer. This particular storm to me is more important than snow amounts. Just my two cents bare with me.
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Yea, no one hate me for saying this but it is getting dry up this way. It does not take long...
 
BirdManDoomW said:
A bigger picture not mentioned that I believe, is that our pattern is changing. If this storm misses, it’s the start of a very long drought and wildfire season. If it’s moisture rich to the Tennessee line, expect more wetness to continue for a little longer. This particular storm to me is more important than snow amounts. Just my two cents bare with me.
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I doubt it. I do not expect a major drought or even major wildfire season anywhere in the SE. El Nino is going to return later this year. We will have some drier patterns from here through April but I still expect a wetter than average year.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I doubt it. I do not expect a major drought or even major wildfire season anywhere in the SE. El Nino is going to return later this year. We will have some drier patterns from here through April but I still expect a wetter than average year.
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Yep, looks like another mod-strong EL nino, maybe if our El Niño can act right, we can get a quite hurricane season and a decent-good winter
 
Since everyone loves a ? , here’s the one from the 12Z Euro for your viewing pleasure: note NE GA/NW SC. None in NC or elsewhere. That's why I used this close-up.
FAFCE7E8-2AD6-4C48-BC46-961772215282.png
 
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Nick_boynton_ said:
Ensembles?
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Per your request, here’s the 12Z EPS ? but keep in mind it still has been having a significant cold bias just these last few days as has been the case all winter. So, this is likely overdone for most of the area covered:

84025498-3F65-47B6-8A6B-8FBD9BC6C799.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I posted a severe wx thread, becuase I think a squall line itself needs to be monitored
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Wouldnt be suprised if supercell or two pops up during the afternoon tbh before the squall line. moisture and wind shear have had a uptick every new model run it seems and lcl heights look to be around 500 range during peak daytime heating.
 
Where has all the rain gone? Had about .5 last 2 weeks, Sunday looks like a miss, Monday is 50/50, it’s really getting dry
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I have a feeling we will get NAMD eventually with this storm but will it hold? Probably not
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Oh don't worry. We already are.
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_52.png
 
When in doubt, always defer to climo. ;)

Congrats to the GGEM for getting one right.
 
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Not throwing in the towel yet. If it’s going to snow it’s likely after a 70 degree weekend. One last hurrah for mtns and gotta go bye
 
06z NAM was a run of the mill April 34 degree heavy rain event here in the upstate. You can’t make this stuff up
 
Opening day @ Heritage Park! Couldn’t ask for better weather! Mid 70s, mostly cloudy! Feels like April!
 
ICON was further NW and had frozen precipitation up to CLT. But the again it’s the ICON so ?‍♀️
 
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