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32 chilly degrees currently. Yesterday was great for working in the yard. Cold enough to keep the bees and such dormant.
Models in decent agreement with a couple of strat warming events and a pv displacement over the next 2 weeks. Obviously it's not a slam dunk we get any effects in the SE but can't help but wonder if we see a -AO pattern in April. If we see a -ao look we could see a turn to below normal in April.
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NCSNOW
Member
Lets hope so. The longer the warmer weather gets delayed the better. Its coming as always, but if we can escape it April and May. Then its just 3 months of misery till September rolls around and we reverse the trend back in the opposite direction, albeit at a crawling pace. It can get toasty at times in April and May.
Hour 100+ on the gfs is basically spring, looking forward to it !!!
I’m about to start a thread for severe wx similar to the other titles, GFS has a threat to the SE now
Ima wait for the euro tho
That would nasty if timing were right. That said its a huge break in consistancy. The Euro is no better with that regard, flipping bad in the longer range. What has happened with the models the past few years?
Interesting euro goes big dawg on severe weather in 7 days also has a very cold end of the look after it passes ... the wild swings continue
It is only an operational run at day 10. But one can dream and hope it is right, right? If right, the beautiful chill of this week could be back for the last few days of the month. It would be nice to have a chilly April like we had last year though I realize the odds are against it.
Meanwhile, it doesn’t get much better than this at 3PM on St. Patrick’s Day: Brunswick 55/cloudy, Lake City 55/PC, Jacksonville 57/cloudy, Hunter AAF (SAV area) 58/cloudy with 32 dew point, Charleston 61/PC with 29 dewpoint, Ocala 62/cloudy, and Gainesville/Hogtown 63/cloudy.
pcbjr
Member
Absolutely beautiful walkin' weather ...
('specially since my wife has a fire going and it's too warm to stay inside ... LOL)
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/march-25-27th-possible-severe-wx.545/ started it, I want to see if I can jinx this event, no joke, anyways this time period has a shot at a severe weather event
I don’t see much a threat at least here, prob be cool and showery with thunder down east.and iso tornado south of Tennessee line just my two cents.prob come early morning or overnight as decaying
Probably for us around the Carolinas yes as that happens all the time, but H5 from the euro and gfs support a pretty nasty severe wx event for other parts of the SE, ofc daytime/nighttime can change this and it will likely change but still
Forecast high was 60. I’m at 64 under clear skies. We lose in the winter but win in the spring
Big Facts, such a good day
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Severe is worth discussing even if it's not in your area, but I finally discovered weather streams in the fall last year and the ability to watch what was going on in them in other areas. Plus there are plenty of other areas of the SE on this board. It could be a severe threat there and nothing eastward because of CAD or other things.
On topic, my dad said the high he recorded was 60 but I had to take my sweatshirt off as I was finishing walking.
On topic, my dad said the high he recorded was 60 but I had to take my sweatshirt off as I was finishing walking.
pcbjr
Member
N FL wedge ... LOL ...
I could've said this two months ago, but the recent model runs finally can convince me that winter is definitely over. No more snow for the south this season. Not out of the question a large portion of this board goes without measurable snow in 2019.
tonysc
Member
Hey December might save us.
Good news for those like me who are enjoying the current chill: the 12Z GFS is the coolest of at the very least the last 4 runs for this weekend due to a slower departing cool surface high. Loving this trend. Pleasant wx all the way through next weekend. #winning
Well Larry with all due respect to your evening walking weather (I understand trust me) I hope it's wrong.... up this way those below normal anomalies at the end of March could spell late season freezes. And I am eager to get my full garden going
Of course, we all have different preferences and can't all be pleased. Regardless, the wx is going to do what the wx is going to do. Our desires don't matter. If the SER has his usual way, this is just a false alarm. But if not, you may want to delay your planting. When is your average last freeze?
I'm not going to be displeased if it happens Lol.... we're used to it, average last freeze is around April 2 anyway. So I always hold off or ensure I have sufficient means to protect my plants.
Anyone interested in what the nam is showing off the south east coast? Both 12km and 3km have a low that spreads widespread precip inland ... very interesting as temps are very cold but not quite cold enough ... another cold rain for the win? Regardless if this comes to forwition none of the globals would have really picked this out also the low that global models are seeing could be much strong as it progresses up the east coast .. providing maybe some implications for the storms in the future
Also very interesting that the Fv3 and euro have an almost similar look where cold air wants to press down on the storm pushing it off the south east coast in 7 days or so and creating maybe some sort of wintry mix for some in the south east ... interesting none the less but will be telling what the euro 12z says ... past two runs have been consistent with this idea... add in an upper level low things could get weird around here the next two weeks or so
I've been talking about our coastal rainstorm threat for days though not the last couple of days as the globals dropped it after having it. Now the globals are back with an interesting something for coastal NC though nothing that big and of course nothing really close to wintry.
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pcbjr
Member
Not going to worry too much about late March freezes ...
Cold rain and maybe a little thunder..... IF the NAM is right. Also, make it stop.
Tacoma
Member
well then bring on the moisture, never fails we get cold and no moisture anywhere around.
Never mind the weeklies, the Happy hour GFS day 7 doesn't even resemble the prior 2 runs in the E US, especially NE where it is much colder (as much as 25-30 degrees)! Snow in Deeeeee Teeeeee land on 3/26!
Edit: snow in metwannabe land also on 3/26!
Edit: snow in metwannabe land also on 3/26!