BufordWX
Member
Wouldn’t some cold air be nice to have with this?
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I mean for this far out .... ILL TAKE THAT LOOK
BufordWX
Member
ICON goes bombogenesis with a 970 low off of NC/VA coast at hour 180.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Rain showing on the models 180 our means 70 and thunderstorms come verification. That is not what you want lol
Gfs still brings a spark of precip : a cold rain/few snowflakes, trough axis has shifted west which would allow a shot for some precip here in NC, look at that low headed towards cape cod tho due to the positively tilted longwave trough moving west, if they get another suprise ima be pissed off 
heres that energy on a z500 map which helps break out precip, also looking at soundings this is at least a little convective, not suprised but BL temps is a real struggle
heres that energy on a z500 map which helps break out precip, also looking at soundings this is at least a little convective, not suprised but BL temps is a real struggle 
Should make a run towards 80*F today, especially if the clouds break up.
Latest from Ryan concerning the FV3:
Gfs still shows some areas in NC may get R/S, altho light it’s something, gfs has a light setup with a positively tilted trough and NC with a w/sw flow at 500mb allowing for a little precip breaking out with decent energy based off the Z500 map, again tho BL temps are a real struggle 
this is the 6z
this is the 6z
Ilovesnow28
Member
Im expecting us to have a full blown healthy severe weather season due to the el nino starting to take full effect on affecting our weather through the coming months.. As for as next winter goes im expecting us to have a similar year as the Atlantic coast is still warm due to the south east ridge and the models still having a hard time ironing out a forecast beyound 3 days or more... Hopefully things will change for the better concerning the next winter season...
Warm ground temps, sun angle..... don't call 911 nothing to see here. Next *sarcasm*
The 12Z Euro says "What rainstorm?".
pcbjr
Member
These blue colors are a continued source of visual amazement and do provide a chuckle ...
Definitely not nothing crazy, but after this cooler pattern gets shoved away gefs shows this, like I said it’s not crazy or nothing but this may need to be watched if it trends towards more of a stronger SW trough and a negative one at that, for another shot at severe wx
I guess it’s so easy keeping a severe wx threat vs a winter wx threat at LR ??
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Why don't they just admit it, FV3-GFS sucks just as bad if not worse than the original GFS. That's why they keep delaying it's transition. lol j/k kinda
Forrrreee ?️ 
️
️ghost1
Member
This will have the azaleas ready in Augusta for the Masters a couple weeks later
From Radiant this morning regarding continuing cold bias of all major models except operational GFS:
“Before discussing the model ranges for the next 15 Days, we
take a step back to show a poor performance among guidance
for the week thus far. The period from Monday to Thursday
(March 11-14) totaled 75.1 GWHDDs, which was largely warmer
than what models projected for the period in their 0z Monday
runs. The GFS OP was the best performer, being too cool by 1.0
GWHDDs; however, larger errors were recorded by our forecast
(+4.0 vs actual), the Euro OP (+5.6), Euro EN (+7.4), GFS EN
(+8.1) and CAN EN (+15.6). These errors have consideration in
our forecast going forward, which is 11.6 GWHDDs warmer
than the average of models over the next 15 Days. The 6-10
Day period totals 88.3 GWHDDs, which is warmer than the
model average (92.0), 0z GFS EN (96.5) and 0z Euro EN (93.2).
The 11-15 Day period totals 73.6 GWHDDs, which is also warm-
er than the model average (78.0), 0z GFS EN (78.9) and 0z Euro EN (83.1).”
“Before discussing the model ranges for the next 15 Days, we
take a step back to show a poor performance among guidance
for the week thus far. The period from Monday to Thursday
(March 11-14) totaled 75.1 GWHDDs, which was largely warmer
than what models projected for the period in their 0z Monday
runs. The GFS OP was the best performer, being too cool by 1.0
GWHDDs; however, larger errors were recorded by our forecast
(+4.0 vs actual), the Euro OP (+5.6), Euro EN (+7.4), GFS EN
(+8.1) and CAN EN (+15.6). These errors have consideration in
our forecast going forward, which is 11.6 GWHDDs warmer
than the average of models over the next 15 Days. The 6-10
Day period totals 88.3 GWHDDs, which is warmer than the
model average (92.0), 0z GFS EN (96.5) and 0z Euro EN (93.2).
The 11-15 Day period totals 73.6 GWHDDs, which is also warm-
er than the model average (78.0), 0z GFS EN (78.9) and 0z Euro EN (83.1).”
With regard to our coastal rainstorm of 3/20-2, the EPS mean rainfall is very slightly further NW vs the prior run with the NW extent of the rain onshore the SE coast. However, it and the model consensus says this is still almost entirely, if not entirely, an offshore event with the best shot at light rain the south half of FL and the NC OB.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
6 inches of snow on March 30th.... Heck it would all be gone before lunchtime the next day. I have only seen 5 late March and early April events in my 54 years here. So, that puts the odds of a repeat at less than 10%. Of course we are reminded of that May 1992 event.
I guess it’s no joke, we’re gonna have to watch this time frame for severe wx, starting to look like some sort of trough is gonna setup somewhere near the SW, models have no idea on the strength of the trough but have consistently shown strong low pressure systems (below 1000) which argues for wind energy, and have shown some instability around this time frame, as we dive deeper in March into April instability becomes less of a problem aswell
We only made it to 79*F on Thursday while we had a midnight high of 72*F yesterday.
If this signal is here monday morning a thread has to be started
Gfs looks a little bit worrying for this timeframe as a longwave negatively tilted trough/strong ULL will begin to pivot up at this time frame bringing up CAPE and wind energy, certainty something to watch
Gfs looks a little bit worrying for this timeframe as a longwave negatively tilted trough/strong ULL will begin to pivot up at this time frame bringing up CAPE and wind energy, certainty something to watch
If this event happens the gfs did amazing with it, been showing some sort of signal since hour 300+ !
12z continues this, with a nasty look at H5, probably under doing wind shear 
Not looking like a big event for the south ATM, but the look at H5 and after makes me think it could be primer system for the next.
tennessee storm
Member
With 988 Mb slp... no doubt it’s under doing shear values ... this pattern coming looks nast end month
Yep, a Plains event with that look, maybe the Northern parts of the SE but I’ve had this eerie feeling for some bad events at the end of this month/April
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Multivariate ENSO Index has been temporarily discontinued on NOAA ESRL:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
Thus, I've spent the better part of the last week or so recreating the MEI using NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (once again).
I've also significantly improved the navigability of my website and I've extended my analyses of individual winter storms and seasons in NC thru the winter of 1944-45. I'm really gonna try to get this winter storm archive finished by next winter but we'll see, I still have about 1,200 ish storms left to analyze.
https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
Thus, I've spent the better part of the last week or so recreating the MEI using NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (once again).
I've also significantly improved the navigability of my website and I've extended my analyses of individual winter storms and seasons in NC thru the winter of 1944-45. I'm really gonna try to get this winter storm archive finished by next winter but we'll see, I still have about 1,200 ish storms left to analyze.
https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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Some upper 20s Monday or Tuesday night here! That’s indeed Marvelous!
So much for the Sunny forecast. 
We've been socked under a thick cirrus deck today, and tomorrow looks to be a repeat of today.
We've been socked under a thick cirrus deck today, and tomorrow looks to be a repeat of today.
pcbjr
Member
You will wish, as will many, in July ...
That’s impressive, but I’m more than satisfied with my predicted low 40s lows and 62-75 highs over the next 7 days with just a chance for light rain tomorrow. The walking’s gonna be great!
The Arctic today with its 243 K is not only the coldest of this winter, it is the coldest day there since way back in Feb of 2015 per this link:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The two versions of the MEI are pretty similar to one another after you corrected the ESRL MEI time series for global warming because it uses a colder, relatively more defunct 1950-1993 base period.
