NBAcentel
Member
This little piece of energy sparks that precip
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I'll believe it when I see it.
Would give anything to read something like this coming out of the RAH office. Unfortunately, it would probably be accompanied by the red bolded:
000
FXUS63 KUNR 131046
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
446 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2019
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2019
Potent phasing western CONUS troughs supporting rapid
cyclogenesis over the Central Plains this morning, setting the
stage for a particularity vigorous storm system. Pos theta-e adv
ongoing into the region with rain spreading north into the
southern FA. This band is on track to mix with and change to
freezing rain and or sleet as the LL cold wedge starts to
intensify per increasing northerly ll flow. Further west, dry air
is fighting off high based snow, with precip expected to
eventually reach the ground soon. Forecast models remain clustered
pretty well on the momentum and height fields, supporting high
confidence in the position of the system FGEN, upslope arc across
the Black Hills, and momentum fields. Thus, heavy snow and
blizzard conds are a certainly across much of the region.
Impressive storm total QPF numbers over 2 inches are progged in
the main FGEN band, which would support around 2 feet of heavy
snow. Very strong winds on track with this system with BL progs
supporting sustained winds of 40-50 mph and gusts 60-70 mph.
Current forecast numbers support KRAP gusting over 60 mph for at
least 18 hours starting this afternoon. With the expected snow and
wind, travel will be impossible on much of area, esp east of the
Black Hills. Snowfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour are expected
under the main FGEN band as well as slantwise instability
supporting a thunder snow threat. Staunch upslope signature with
steep lapse rates will also support heavy snow in the northern
Black Hills with 18-24 inches still a good bet in southern
Lawrence county (Lead-Deadwood area). A period of mixed precip
looks likely over south central SD with up to a third of an inch
of ice in the most extreme case. However, this will hinge on ll
thermal fields and precip amounts/intensity. Tweaked forecast snow
amounts to side heavier with lower amounts outside the two main
areas of lift, especially in SE Wake Co. where we expect the bulk
of the precipitation to fall as a cold rain. Winds should be near 0 also;
the expected main FGEN band from IEN to Kadoka, and
the northern Hills upslope area. This lines up more with the NAM
and many of the hires models. The biggest changes to totals are
seen in far NW SD and the downslope hole over western Custer
county into Weston county. The heaviest snow will still occur this
afternoon into the evening, with the strongest winds Wed evening
into Thur morning. Snow will taper off sharply Thur morning, with
winds remaining gusty through Thur afternoon, supporting
widespread blowing snow. The only change to the headlines was to
upgrade Weston county. Given increased forecast wind speeds,
decided to upgrade them to a blizzard warning. Blizzard warnings will
thus be maintained for all areas for extreme snowfall, outside of
southern Wake County, where that area will remain under a flood watch.
000
FXUS63 KUNR 131046
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
446 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2019
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2019
Potent phasing western CONUS troughs supporting rapid
cyclogenesis over the Central Plains this morning, setting the
stage for a particularity vigorous storm system. Pos theta-e adv
ongoing into the region with rain spreading north into the
southern FA. This band is on track to mix with and change to
freezing rain and or sleet as the LL cold wedge starts to
intensify per increasing northerly ll flow. Further west, dry air
is fighting off high based snow, with precip expected to
eventually reach the ground soon. Forecast models remain clustered
pretty well on the momentum and height fields, supporting high
confidence in the position of the system FGEN, upslope arc across
the Black Hills, and momentum fields. Thus, heavy snow and
blizzard conds are a certainly across much of the region.
Impressive storm total QPF numbers over 2 inches are progged in
the main FGEN band, which would support around 2 feet of heavy
snow. Very strong winds on track with this system with BL progs
supporting sustained winds of 40-50 mph and gusts 60-70 mph.
Current forecast numbers support KRAP gusting over 60 mph for at
least 18 hours starting this afternoon. With the expected snow and
wind, travel will be impossible on much of area, esp east of the
Black Hills. Snowfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour are expected
under the main FGEN band as well as slantwise instability
supporting a thunder snow threat. Staunch upslope signature with
steep lapse rates will also support heavy snow in the northern
Black Hills with 18-24 inches still a good bet in southern
Lawrence county (Lead-Deadwood area). A period of mixed precip
looks likely over south central SD with up to a third of an inch
of ice in the most extreme case. However, this will hinge on ll
thermal fields and precip amounts/intensity. Tweaked forecast snow
amounts to side heavier with lower amounts outside the two main
areas of lift, especially in SE Wake Co. where we expect the bulk
of the precipitation to fall as a cold rain. Winds should be near 0 also;
the expected main FGEN band from IEN to Kadoka, and
the northern Hills upslope area. This lines up more with the NAM
and many of the hires models. The biggest changes to totals are
seen in far NW SD and the downslope hole over western Custer
county into Weston county. The heaviest snow will still occur this
afternoon into the evening, with the strongest winds Wed evening
into Thur morning. Snow will taper off sharply Thur morning, with
winds remaining gusty through Thur afternoon, supporting
widespread blowing snow. The only change to the headlines was to
upgrade Weston county. Given increased forecast wind speeds,
decided to upgrade them to a blizzard warning. Blizzard warnings will
thus be maintained for all areas for extreme snowfall, outside of
southern Wake County, where that area will remain under a flood watch.
Fixed
Hell Yeah! I was just thinking of that when I saw the date this morning. Started sleeting in the late afternoon and by the end of Family Matters we already had several inches. It never let up and we ended up with 18". The only bummer is it was pure powder so it took days to get it into sledding shape. Also the only time I saw my grandfather plow our roads with a tractor.
tonysc
Member
Yeah that afternoon it was snowing from the panhandle of Florida, all the way up to Maine, and all the way back to the Mississippi River. The whole eastern third of the US. That was awesome in and of itself.
Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnd....... poof it's goneGFS and FV3 look mildly interesting Monday morning, convective precip.... snow/graupel maybe? Probably just a miserable cold passing shower.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Polar vortex is record strong atm for March, usually favors a cool start to summer esp in the central US and MS Valley. I’ll gladly take it
Speaking of colder starts, bottomed out at 28 this morning....so, while I tilled my little garden spot yesterday, it's a good reminder growing season ain't here just yet.
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Sounds like a winner. Although I’m hesitant to trust any kind of Analog after this winter. I might bet the streak and go with “Hot May”
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I mentioned this several pages back but the monster low over KS atm has some precedent (Mar 1973 -971 hPa) and about a week or so following this storm, a s/w trough dove southeastward out of central Canada and triggered a surface low off the Carolinas which produced widespread thundersnow in the northern piedmont on the 21st & 22nd of March.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Crazy that if this did happen again, it would be pretty much to the date that it happened in 1973.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It was a forgotten storm in light of the big 3 during March that all produced accumulating snow in both Raleigh & Greensboro and much of the rest of central NC on exactly March 25th & 26th 3 out of 4 winters in a row the 1970s. This little guy in 1973 almost made it four winters in a row w/ accumulating snow on March 25 & 26 around here.
That’s in impressive March low over Greenland..the anti block..smdh
Temps approaching -70 in Greenland late next week? Impressive
smdh
I’m seeing some 1.75” liquid spots already showing up south of Denver. They’re getting raked. Must be nice
I’m seeing some 1.75” liquid spots already showing up south of Denver. They’re getting raked. Must be nice
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Snowiest month in Denver is actually March!
NCSNOW
Member
How did this turn out on euro today?
NCSNOW
Member
Denver webcam
I was actually out in the Colorado mountains this week 11 years ago. We were skiing the back bowls at Aspen with powder above our waist. I lost my ski poles that day when I wiped out in the deep snow. Incredible trip
NCSNOW
Member
THIS IS NOT i85 Upstate SC. Out in Colorado somewhere.
0.25" of rain for @pcbjr, which will hopefully not lead to oak webs or whatever you call them, and cool temps (high 50s) with no rain for any other active member. No rain for Carolinas as it is well offshore.
Like the other 2 Coastals we watched this winter go OTS.
12Z EPS mean rainfall for 3/19-21 coastal: @pcbjr, @Stormsfury, and I are the biggest winners with 0.50". 0.25" from Tifton, GA, to Columbia to Charlotte to RDU. Lighter amounts further inland. Up to 1" of snow NW NC/NE TN/SW VA mtns though that may be overdone due to cold bias. Nonmtn precip is all rain with temps above freezing and 850s warmer than 0C. But a cool to cold rain for many is quite possible, which will be fun to follow. And maybe, just maybe some mtn locations can get some snow.
pcbjr
Member
oak worm paste ... water and that stuff mixes and is worse than dog doo in the soles of shoes ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I wouldn't necessarily say that, for the mountains, their "legitimate" climatological window for snowfall extends well into early-mid April, it's not hard at all to get snow there even this late in the season. Upslope northwest flow events even long after other large-scale forcing for precipitation and lift has departed still provide decent accumulating events esp from Asheville and points north all the way into April
pcbjr
Member
Delayed, and probabilities only, but not forgotten ... ...
...
Hey we gotta give them one so they will keep playing us..lol Much like the possibility of snow in the SE St. Mary’s has no chance..
Not sure what their rates were like but somebody saw a 2”+ liquid total south of Denver
Pretty crazy looking at Denver radar watching precip continue to stream in directly from the north
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol
Nothing to see here folks. I just folded my end of the year winter weather outside of the mountains. No additional salt/removal trucks will be needed. Some flakes could fly in March but of no concern. Additional coatings likely above 3,000ft esp along the TN line. Signing off, thank-you, next.
pcbjr
Member
Bunch of friends came in from CO a couple weeks ago to enjoy the beach ... froze their asses off and complained, complained, complained ...
Gfs twins and the ensembles didn’t look half as bad this go around ... maybe some interesting 00z models coming but NC and TN seem to be in luck for late accumulating snow with the upcoming storm chance
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Incredible. As much as I do like the cold, this is way too much for me, no way I could go half a year being near/below 50-55.
I definitely need to have a few days of 60s-70s sprinkled in at least a couple times every several weeks or so w/ some snow sprinkled in to boot, but the latter rarely pans out.
I definitely need to have a few days of 60s-70s sprinkled in at least a couple times every several weeks or so w/ some snow sprinkled in to boot, but the latter rarely pans out
.
NBAcentel
Member
Yet again, made it to 74*F with a mix of clouds and sun today.
And actually, the high yesterday was 75*F.
And actually, the high yesterday was 75*F.