NoSnowATL
Member
Builders too. It’s been a awful winter and looks like a awful spring too. Might start building boats instead of houses.
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Builders too. It’s been a awful winter and looks like a awful spring too. Might start building boats instead of houses.
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What’s interesting is that the Gfs and Fv3 have been hinting at after all the severe weather we see some sort of return of a chance at some more winter in a last hurrah effort
I’m an underground utility contractor and it’s been rough
Welcome to March. Where deep purple 2m anomoloies mean mid 40’s
i haven’t even looked at the sfc precip or instability for this timeframe, I clicked the link and it loaded me to H5, let me guess, another severe wx outbreak.....
tonysc
Member
Until I see snow, the question is....Is February the new March?
For fans of wx extremes not in the SE US, Chicago is now only 5 degrees at 11 AM on March 4th, yes 5 degrees! That's only about 30 colder than normal! If this were mid Jan, it would still be about 18 colder than normal!
NCCWOP9077
Member
Southern NC may get some flurries/light snow late tonight or very early Tuesday. That's if the atmosphere is saturated enough in the dendritic snow growth zone. Just maybe...
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You want to see a real live mature +PNA? Checkout the 12Z EPS for March 16-18 when you have some time. You won't regret it.
If this were to be real news, we'd have a chilly St. Patrick's Day. I won't even talk about the alternative. I'm just going to remain positive for now. I'm in a Dr. Norman Vincent Peale type of mood right now (eternal optimism).
If this were to be real news, we'd have a chilly St. Patrick's Day. I won't even talk about the alternative. I'm just going to remain positive for now. I'm in a Dr. Norman Vincent Peale type of mood right now (eternal optimism).
pcbjr
Member
Get it while the gettin's good ...
Golf7575
Member
Larry, its too late in the season now man other than a late season cold blast. It happens occasionally in March.
I'd venture out on a limb and assume Larry isn't speaking of snow outside the mountains of the SE by any means. What that would do, is mess up my gardening though. :|
Golf7575
Member
Im in Arkansas but it probably wont matter anyway. I may golf around that timeframe, but wont if its freezing
You've got the right idea. Actually, I'm just pointing out that should this be for real, any thoughts of an early spring should be put aside as that would mean anything but a warm pattern unless Mr. SER decides to take control once again.
But regarding wintry precip possibilities, there have been many a cold St. Patrick's Days. My memory tells me the parades down here have often been chilly. The Heritage Golf Tourney, which used to be played a few days afterward was often quite cold for the golfers. And looking at history, a place like ATL has had a good number of wintry events around or even a few days after that. Heck, even @pcbjr's old hometown of Jax has had a trace of sleet as late as 11 days later on 3/28/1955!!
How many ice events has CAD prone areas in the foothills/mountains had, geez
With the right moisture and timing could see 1-3” snow/sleet mix for north-west NC Friday. But odds are both will be off and it will be all sleet. Boone to Mount Airy favored. For now.
Certainly not a Mountain only event. Too many dry cold days leading up to the event will deposit stable air for the Yadkin Valley region and sleet is more likely near the surface. Question will likely be how much moisture? Maybe as Far East as Winston-Salem just too far out to know exactly where.
50 degrees never felt so cold. Brrr
The next three nights are going to be brutal by this winter’s standards
The next three nights are going to be brutal by this winter’s standards
Lol, the 18Z GFS, which I surely won't toss, brings the 0Z 850 line to its furthest south this winter, Orlando, on St Patricks Day! Then, it has the polar vortex once again making a run for the N plains a the end of the run!
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pcbjr
Member
April Fool's is still almost a month away ... LOL
In all seriousness, that brings a 20º drop in day-to-day same-time surface temps way down here in 24 hours, should it come to pass ... that's a remarkable thing in March this far south ...
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Too little too late? If only it were Janury..or February
I'd bet if it was Jan or Feb it'd still be rain. Just how this winter was.
The Euro wanting to throw out broad troughs over and over again is concerning in the long range.
Not too late at all. Still expecting a March thump for western NC maybe parts of central NC.
I have a bad feeling the tornado alley is going to be active and weighed to the east. A short lived violent spring then summer dry dry dry.
Welp, if you like graupel, cold rain, cold, this is your pattern which we supposedly can’t get this winter (+PNA)
I think there will be another legit change for some most likely March heavy wet snow in NC and maybe other places in the southeast... lots of anomoulous cold air after the severe weather fronts move through ... watch for a storm to develop on back end with the cold .. we will be going from tornados to snow in MARCH .. classic NC
Pretty darn good agreement here
snowlover91
Member
You know we always get the winter blocking we need in spring instead of winter. This has a decent chance of actually verifying lol.
Ilovesnow28
Member
Guys watch the period around mid to late March for maybe one more winter wx boardwide.... The El nino is starting to take shape a little bit better for the month And +pna and soi is looking better.... Also we have 2 more severe weather systems to look out for this weekend and next week
Yeah, I think we'll have maybe one last look at a system. Might not happen, but I feel like we could at least have another fantasy storm make it all the way to day 5
Doesn't the SER usually pop up in a Nina? Any thoughts on the strengthening Nino helping to possibly shunt the SER?
Does the pattern around mid-month and after bear any resemblance to April 2-3, 1987? That was without question the latest accumulating snow I've ever witnessed as we received around 5" (I was living in Rome, Ga at the time). Birmingham tallied 6" and snow was reported as far south as Mobile. Spring snowstorms are certainly rare in the deep South, but they can happen! I know the Superstorm of '93 was another late season exception, but I was curious about the April 1987 storm since it was almost 3 weeks later.
I believe I did the 4/2-4/3 composite right. Although @Webberweather53 can correct me here if I'm wrong
And what the EPS is showing at the end of what I can see
I can see some resemblance, but not identical by any means
And the 12z GFS for hr 228
The SER pops up in any Enso. I'm thinking its persistence is related to the NAO refusing to go negative in winter. Those two obviously teleconnect, but my theory is the SER has been causing the +NAO. We look for convection and lower heights in the west Pacific to force a ridge over the top. When the opposite happens there is a trough up top around AK. Why doesn't the same apply on the Atlantic side? It would certainly explain why there is a constant trough of Greenland. Anyone have a theory?
My thoughts are like yours but the very warm Atlantic may continue to help fuel the SER. But hopefully the stronger Niño finally overcomes it.
Looks like severe wx for NC/SC/eastern GA based off that look, haven’t looked at precip maps thoI believe I did the 4/2-4/3 composite right. Although @Webberweather53 can correct me here if I'm wrong
And what the EPS is showing at the end of what I can see
I can see some resemblance, but not identical by any means
And the 12z GFS for hr 228