Brent
Member
Hmmm
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NCCWOP9077
Member
12z GFS ensemble mean thru March 7
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The inconsistency here actually gives me more hope. It can go either way. That said, the ops runs have gone the way of less wintry for the SE. Thinking the king is gonna show a solution similar to the GFS twins and UKMET. There is still time, but its running out.
Storm5
Member
Euro says move for the first wave
along
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She's heading to Caribou to add to their record breaking Winter.Euro says move for the first wavealong
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Usually with models and real storms you’ll see them go favorable at first and show u the storm go unfavorable and slowly come back favorable ... windshield wiper effect .. I believe it’ll be the case here
We should wait for ensemblesEuro says move for the first wavealong
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That’s why I’m happier we’re seeing these drastic jumps from model run to model run now while we’re still a healthy ways away from the final product
When do you think we should see a trend back to the south on the operationals?
WXinCanton
Member
You do know models have more skill as we get closer?
No Brent, don't take the candy from the bad man!
packfan98
Moderator
Well, the second wave is suppressed and out to sea, unlike the 0z.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At least we're trending towards warm rain...
It’s been a fun 48 hours. Anti southeast snow trends
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol, this looks mighty familiar. Wall to wall -PNA in a +ENSO February, smh we can't do anything right.
Time to root for the NW trend with the second energy!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At least NC gets a day 8 flizzard fest! #winning
Storm5
Member
You guys outside if the cad zones are going to love the 2nd half of the month. Those of us in wedge regions.... this is looking damp and cold
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Pretty good model agreement at this juncture. Vortex moving west. Ridge nudging in to the south. Cutter city
Thx, what I thought. Just our luck to time the energy so that the first is rain and the next one is cold enough but suppressed
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Geez it won’t be long before severe wx is a issue !
snowlover91
Member
There is nothing good on any of the 12z runs for the two waves we've been watching. Not only has the first one shifted warmer to rain but the second wave looks quite suppressed/dry for most.
It's amazing that in 24 hours we've gone from the Euro showing a nice snow to a cutter and rain. Story of our winter.
It's amazing that in 24 hours we've gone from the Euro showing a nice snow to a cutter and rain. Story of our winter.
I mean it is good that it’s trending drastically like this ... I mean it can’t get any worse than what’s already happened right? Gotta see good trends soon.. please old man winter
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It can't get any worse if you don't like cold rain, because if we keep trending warmer we may have to contend w/ severe weather before long at this rate
Nothing good about it and completely predictable. This whole season has been wash, rinse and repeat.
What's funny is TWC is still showing snow showers for me next week
Lolol I got snow/sleet with this pattern (SER) 
And I/we’re about to rain with this upcoming/better one, it might even be a warm rain, complete bs lol ?
And I/we’re about to rain with this upcoming/better one, it might even be a warm rain, complete bs lol ?
snowlover91
Member
Generally at this stage, inside 6 days from start of the event, you want things to be holding or trending better instead of worse. It would take some pretty significant changes to get this back to a potential threat for the first wave. Our second wave will likely be affected by the evolution of the first one so it's a bit too early to say what it may do but overall today the trends have not been favorable.
tractor girl
Member
I just hope we don't see any severe wx while the ground is still overly saturated.
southernskimmer
Member
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Trees with sub-par root systems are falling all over the place at my apartment complex in Charlotte.
Thor
Member
I can’t help and say, that trends against us this winter is so laughable, we had the good patterns for example that coastal, but that thing was to far SE, pretty heartbreaking to say the least as that storm could of been sum special, then what look like a few good periods in feb and there was model agreement, but the SER shoved things west, now this storm, nope just another MA storm that trended north becuase of our complete ------ luck in the SE and other influences, just please bring on MJO phase 3-5, strongest SER ever/Bermuda high, we’re good at that, hello spring/summer
I suppose it's possible that some key energy that was on the field the last couple of days popped off the grid into a data void and may reappear in the next day or two, causing the models to burp up a few mercy snow maps. Given the trends of the winter, I wouldn't bet on it. But I suppose it's possible.
Storm5
Member
Eps continues the bad trends at 12z
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Storm5
Member
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What do the eps say about the coastal? I see those eps maps don’t go out as far as it is rn
snowlover91
Member
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Would you mind posting these for the SC/NC area? Hard to tell what happens anywhere RDU and east. Thanks!