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Pattern Marvelous March

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
No this system won’t we modeled correctly 7 days out but the bleeding has to stop here at 12z. That big vortex needs to improve
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Quite honestly, the 3rd/4th looks like a punt to me now outside of maybe north of I-40 (and I saw Jon say "punt the 3rd/4th" well earlier). Punt that one and hope the one on the 6th can keep steady for a while. Otherwise, say hello to spring.
 
Biggest issue I see with the 12z Icon is warmth. I understand some think it has a "warm bias", but it's pretty darn good, imo to actuality. This is with the weak wave #2.. its cold enough in TN/parts of AL/GA/MS/Mountains, but the precip doesnt really get going outside the Carolinas at this frame... and its even very weak.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yep that big PV centered in eastern Candada US a week ago isn’t aging well atm
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We have seen the trend to weaken that PV and/or translate it west more times this winter than the opposite. My hope was that the western Canada block would trap it east. I don't know if that's going to pan out. Models overdo the cold press in the LR most of the time. That's just the unfortunate way it is. There seem to always be more avenues to get to warmer temps as we close in than there are toward colder. It's why it makes sense to guard one's excitement until we can see the whites of its eyes.

As said above, the bleeding has to stop soon. I'm not saying it's not going to snow in the next 2 weeks, but I am looking at it with the side eye.
 
Wave #1 pops a surface low over Florence, SC on the 12z GFS with some mixed precip back across Texas, ARK, MS, NW AL, TN. Maybe better snow amounts in the NC/TN mountains.
 
The surface low looks to get shunted south and more of AL turns over.

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So with wave #1, aside from the frame I posted above, rain. for carolinas/ga. north central NC maybe okay.

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The GFS is also trending stronger with the 5h energy that moves through the area. It now has a weak 850 low that passes along the NC/TN border. That would bring snow ONLY to northern parts of NC with a sharp cutoff.
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You can see the response at the 850 level. This will be an important feature to track going forward as well.
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Well upstate SC gets a flizzard with non-wave #2 so far this run. Not sure much more will happen as a whole so far, lol.
 
CMC is amped with the first wave, similar to the 00z run and then appears to have maybe some wintry precip with the second wave.
 
It's looking like wave one will be too warm and wave two will either be dry or just some light snow based on the 12z modeling thus far. Still time for things to change but with the Fv3 and CMC agreeing on a northern track and the GFS adjusting north for the first wave it's not a good sign if this holds.
 
I mean yes, technically there is still time for this storm to come back.... but I doubt. I think the euro is gonna be right on board with the GFS twins
 
Congrats North AL I guess
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Typically the UK and Euro are fairly close in their depictions of things. With the 12z UK going the route of a cutter, CMC showing one and Fv3 I think the chances of the Euro showing that are pretty good too. We will see soon enough what it shows. Still time for things to change 6 days out but the 12z suite so far has been a significant step back.
 
snowlover91 said:
Typically the UK and Euro are fairly close in their depictions of things. With the 12z UK going the route of a cutter, CMC showing one and Fv3 I think the chances of the Euro showing that are pretty good too. We will see soon enough what it shows. Still time for things to change 6 days out but the 12z suite so far has been a significant step back.
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Good many years back, the UK was known to have a SE suppression bias with lows coming across the gulf/off Florida. Not sure if that's still the case, but unnerving for sure.
 
Shawn said:
Good many years back, the UK was known to have a SE suppression bias with lows coming across the gulf/off Florida. Not sure if that's still the case, but unnerving for sure.
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Day 5 bias charts indicate the UK has had a bit of a high bias lately if anything. It's verification scores are right behind the Euro though so it showing a cutter is not a good sign if it holds.
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12z GEFS, still a range of solutions in here from a cutter to complete whiffs and everything in between. I'm also noticing what appears to be less separation between wave 1 and 2 on some members.
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snowlover91 said:
The 4 run trend of the GEFS is trending towards less blocking over northern Canada and focusing it a bit more in Western Canada. Also notice the heights have actually improved slightly over the SE and the vortex has lifted north a bit in recent runs.
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so is this a good trend or one we dont want to see.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
so is this a good trend or one we dont want to see.
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As ajr mentioned it's a mixed bag. Looking at the individual GEFS members there is still a good bit of variation in there, no one look seems to be the consensus yet but I'd say the two main camps are split between a cutter/rain look vs a colder/wintry look. The timing and track of the 5h energy as well as the blocking evolution will determine which camp becomes the consensus in the coming days. Still time for things to change either direction but the 12z suite overall has not been good.
 
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