Imagine a phase at the right time #crushjob
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Imagine a phase at the right time #crushjob
It’s probably right. Blend the GFS and CMC and it’s a decent little event for the Carolinas though?..
CMC actually improved vs the 12z
Okay you know damn well we’re all staying up for this Euro run... the long nights begin now
dsaur
Member
One of these gulf storms will run a stripe right across the middle of Ga and on into you. It's long over due. Since the 90's, I guess, down here.....a good one. Sledding on the state road good.
That 00z run last night though..I tried to say that was a perfect run. Now look ??
Timing and confluence changes.. Still close but those little changes are the difference between joy and depression around here Last night
Tonight
@Myfrotho704_ CMC has really had to speed this thing up to catch up with the other globals?
That 00z run last night though..I tried to say that was a perfect run. Now look ??
Last night
View attachment 16504
Tonight
View attachment 16503
It’s either to much or to little confluence ??
I’m just gonna go ahead and say this, do not look at ensemble 6 for the gefs after this panel, I repeat do not look and rest still don’t look that bad, I’d say less suppression with this gefs run tonight 
Yeah if I think If I know what your saying, last nights 00z run barely had it in the SE by hour 198
GEFS snow mean looks like it stepped back a little?
Jessy89
Member
There’s a few big hits for the Carolinas on there
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Yes it changes from run to run but signal stills there.
Although member "6" looks huge, its not as huge as one would think on the snowfall map vs how hard it looks like it'd hit on ptype maps.
also members look mainly light besides #6, so #6 will be skewing the mean.
also members look mainly light besides #6, so #6 will be skewing the mean.
Good news is it’s not a downtick due to rainers but moreso due to suppression which I’m ok with. I’m not even going to be mad if I get whiffed to the south with a strung out wave. It would actually be fitting if that were to happen..
Hate to be negative but if you look at the 0z Gefs it’s less spread in models and all ensembles except for #6 keep it a upper south event with a few flurries south of NC /TN
FWIW: Fv3 looks great and CMC also improved off to King Euro.
FWIW: Fv3 looks great and CMC also improved off to King Euro.
I thought this run would be less suppression based off precip, I was wrong, looked on TT and it still is pretty suppressed, HP backed off this run tho
What does precip maps show, looking off this and 850 temps, it would be a I-40-north event in NC
STAND BY AND ILL POST IT UP
It looks good to me
Brent
Member
Sunday is a nope for most looking at precip type
Looks like the first event maybe be a go for NC and now we see the possible big dog after we await the frames..
1-2" NC mtns and Triad area and not much of anything anyone else. A major warmer change for most. Blah.
Wow this Euro run brought back the dreaded SER which cause a delay in cold air prior to previous runs
Brent
Member
Monday suppressed mostly nothing much to see there the SE ridge never goes away entirely anyway
also props to the snow hole over me briefly on Monday morning
also props to the snow hole over me briefly on Monday morning
I don’t see the south east ridge ??
12Z Euro: ATL either near or below 32 3/3-3/6. 0Z Euro: not even that close to a single ATL freeze. Wow, other than the NC mtns, Triad area, and Brent, this run sucks for most and is disconcerting.
I can't get excited about a run that doesn't even get ATL to freezing. I thought we were going to finally get that but nooooooo says the 0z Euro lol through at least 3/6. Surprise!
I can't get excited about a run that doesn't even get ATL to freezing. I thought we were going to finally get that but nooooooo says the 0z Euro lol through at least 3/6. Surprise!
How dreadful, 850s cold enough in my area yet to warm at the sfc, as gordon Ramsey would say, “Shocking”
End of the euro looked interesting
Brent
Member
Not saying this because it was a crap run, but has the euro been off lately or am I wrong ? Been seeing a lot of folks on twitter saying it’s been off lately
Brent
Member
Not as good as the 12z though which had 2 inches lol
Yea, off its rocker. All the models have been off their rockers.
On a 2nd look now that Brent pointed it out and when considering no late run storm, everyone had a worse run. Can we all just get a special toss exemption? Man, this was really bad.
Watch the 12z euro tomorrow be a crazy run while gfs/fv bounce to a worse solution, it’s so predictable ? , watch the eps not match it at all tho
I don't even know how this run can even be taken seriously because of such a huge change. I mean it may be closer to reality, but we have no way to know that now. I'm guessing the EPS will be kind of sucky because it tends to mimic the operational at least to some extent. But it very likely won't have changed as much. This is not a nice way to end the day lol. I was hoping for a peaceful night's sleep.
34 degree rain, just seeing that is making my blood boil