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Pattern Marvelous March

Webberweather53 said:
The later in winter and into spring we go, the stronger the SE US ridge flexes its muscles under a -EPO, we're getting away w/ it here because we have a big PV lobe diving down into the Lakes, the wavetrain is so positively tilted in the Pacific & the wavelengths are short enough s.t. we end up w/ a general trough over the E US at least for now anyways. Latter stages of March could be a preview of summer given the way everything looks atm
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We may end up with a steamy summer like last year but avoiding the extreme heat because we end up on the south side of the ridge while New England bakes. More like a south Florida climate here.


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I guess our very slight window will be between March 4-8. If we get no snow I don’t think we will get any. Just trying to be a realist


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I actually have a sneaking suspicion that the chance for something Wintry down to I-20 could happen in a setup like this. I like the idea of the storm being on the majority of guidance in some form or fashion.

For example, I have noticed that the 12z Euro took a huge bump up in members with Wintry weather in the KCAE area to match what the GEFS members have been saying for many cycles now. I didn't count the members, but it might be even more happy about the idea vs other modeling.
 
Shawn said:
I actually have a sneaking suspicion that the chance for something Wintry down to I-20 could happen in a setup like this. I like the idea of the storm being on the majority of guidance in some form or fashion.

For example, I have noticed that the 12z Euro took a huge bump up in members with Wintry weather in the KCAE area to match what the GEFS members have been saying for many cycles now. I didn't count the members, but it might be even more happy about the idea vs other modeling.
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I’m happy to see a Fellow Midlands Man back on.
 
I haven’t been this interested in a 00z model suite in a minute, what do you guys think will happen ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I haven’t been this interested in a 00z model suite in a minute, what do you guys think will happen ?
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It will maintain pretty well across the board. I'm not expecting disappointment trends to start for a couple more days. Is an interesting 0z run though with the double whamy of having severe and snow chances back to back.
 
I’ve been trying to keep my goober outbursts at bay but if I keep seeing these suppressed cold looks that could change. Either way I’ll be happy as long as I don’t have to track a big ENC coastal..
 
ICON has actually done well lately, it was the only model to keep that chance of a “front end thump” we just got in NC then other models began to cave, but idk about it’s H5 scores
 
Yikes winter wants to say hello and stay a while
 

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Myfrotho704_ said:
ICON has actually done well lately, it was the only model to keep that chance of a “front end thump” we just got in NC then other models began to cave, but idk about it’s H5 scores
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It did well with the non frontal event.. I know it shows warmer temps and what people don't want to see a lot.. but from a raw accuracy standpoint, it's good imo.. to get an idea of moisture/temps especially.
 
Good look again! 5B47D386-ED6F-4A00-B6DF-332D97DDFC17.png
 
Damn yo, this could actually be a big one if things go right, but things gotta go right lol, and that’s the opposite of this winter ?, anyways you can see evaporative cooling beginning in south central GA likely due to a very shallow warm layer at the sfc overcomed by cooler temps aloft getting dragged down
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00z FV3-GFS (same hr. timeframe as 00z GFS mentioned above)
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png


EDIT
lxDGjDT.gif
 
Wow so it’s two separate storm chances initial shot is trending north and the second shot looks to be the possible big dog.. look at the significant changes in the Gfs 500 mb charts ... looks VERY similar to 12z euro
 
This is really something to watch. I do believe


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With the first storm to the south here’s a sounding near ATL, note the very shallow warm layer, get precip with this and they wetbulb to a sounding supportive of wintry precipitation 56E020B2-40E8-494D-8D36-BCD142839ABA.jpeg
 
Gfs says it’s clipper land after March 10 ? I love this
 

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