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Pattern Marvelous March

Here is the spaghetti plot of the 0Z EPS: Look at all of those well offshore surface low tracks and these are only the ones that get lower than 1004 mb. This implies many that earlier crossed the S half of FL, which is the perfect track for a very rare deep SE snowstorm. Is this for real? That is the big question. IF so and if the connection to the predicted record cold Midwest is strong enough, it could easily be game on for much of the SE, including deep SE, somewhere within 3/3-5:9C6E6FA3-31DE-455B-A29E-C8FD1281D690.png
 
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Good morning 6z
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Looks like Gfs twins are throwing more chips in the basket ... I saw a lot of Miller As on the GEFS 06z run ... it’s quite funny how we may end up getting the most significant storms at the times where we never get significant storms .. the beginning of December and now the beginning or March but end of winter




BACKLOADED BABY ALL IN
 
you know if something doesn't pop soon we are running out of time, I don't think in all my years of keeping up with the weather especially snowstorms I've seen it so hard to snow and I mean even flurries, this is ridiculous, we start off in December with a great winter storm of which it was actually fall and nothing the rest of the winter. That is unreal, threading a needle isn't even in play. :mad:
 
Tacoma said:
you know if something doesn't pop soon we are running out of time, I don't think in all my years of keeping up with the weather especially snowstorms I've seen it so hard to snow and I mean even flurries, this is ridiculous, we start off in December with a great winter storm of which it was actually fall and nothing the rest of the winter. That is unreal, threading a needle isn't even in play. :mad:
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I know what you mean, southeast weather has a mind of its own.
 
KyloG said:
Though the mean isn't all that great, several members showing something.

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For the record I’m not excited . So late in the season , warm ground temps and sun angle issues

With that said the gefs has been too cold and snowy this winter and the EPS seems to have been late picking up on the threats .

It’s nice seeing all the globals not far off . I’d much rather have them show nothing at this point vs showing a big storm only to watch it end up crushing Kentucky .

It can only get better moving forward in time right ?


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I know it is way to early to know but for fun could the Midlands of SC finally see something with this potential? It’s been over 4 years!!
 
Storm5 said:
For the record I’m not excited . So late in the season , warm ground temps and sun angle issues

With that said the gefs has been too cold and snowy this winter and the EPS seems to have been late picking up on the threats .

It’s nice seeing all the globals not far off . I’d much rather have them show nothing at this point vs showing a big storm only to watch it end up crushing Kentucky .

It can only get better moving forward in time right ?


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I usually am ready for warm weather and spring once March starts, and models agree on that after the first week of March. I guess it would be nice to track one more event, though it's been since 1983 that Raleigh has seen a legit 4" event in March. So odds are at best this will be token flakes for most and but something better in NW areas...if anything at all.

2009 was a great March event for Raleigh, probably the only memorable March event in my 20 years here.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Coastal sig makes me want to choke a gerble. Raleigh will find a way to accidentally get another 6”+
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Hah...it will probably be a decade before Raleigh sees another 6" event. We haven't broken 10" for a season in 15 years. We are the definition of suckiness.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I know it is way to early to know but for fun could the Midlands of SC finally see something with this potential? It’s been over 4 years!!
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Ignoring cold model biases of recent months, it is not at all out of the realm of reasonable possibilities for just about any part of the SE north of central FL considering the trend of the last few runs of model consensus.

It being 9-10 days out on a very unreliable operational GFS notwithstanding, I’m a bit surprised that the major ATL and vicinity sleetstorm for 3/5-6 showing on the 6Z GFS isn’t getting more attention yet at least just for fun. This is comparable to the 1/1988 and 2/1979 big ATL sleets fwiw.
 
KyloG said:
I usually am ready for warm weather and spring once March starts, and models agree on that after the first week of March. I guess it would be nice to track one more event, though it's been since 1983 that Raleigh has seen a legit 4" event in March. So odds are at best this will be token flakes for most and but something better in NW areas...if anything at all.

2009 was a great March event for Raleigh, probably the only memorable March event in my 20 years here.

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Yes they’re rare but I think the odds are higher than normal because the ante is upped significantly by the record cold projected for the Midwest 3/3-5. This would be the coldest there in March in decades. Almost always in early March, the airmass in the Midwest has been much warmer than this. This airmass would be quite cold even for the heart of winter. It would even be colder than the late Feb/start of Mar 1980 as well as first half of Mar 1960 airmasses. This shouldn’t be ignored in setting probabilities in folks’ minds.
 
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12Z GFS is the coldest GFS run yet for the SE for the start of the crucial period regardless of whether or not there will be any wintry wx showing later in the run.
 
I will say this is actually a system that appears to have potential. Love the suppressed look with the strong high coming down. Would love to "steal" one last snow so late in the year. A lot to watch this week with the severe threat on Friday and then the snow potential a few days after.
 
Storm5 said:
The signal is there for something . The consistency over the last few days is pretty incredible given the way this winter has gone


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I don't want to be a broken record, but this is the most consistent we have seen the models showing a storm signal since the December storm. I think this is the best legit shot we have had since then.
 
12Z GFS will wake up those still sleeping. Clown has 1/2-1” snow @deltadog03 almost to @GeorgiaGirl and 3-4” just east of Columbia on 3/6 thanks to the central FL crossing of the low below a record breaking cold airmass in the Midwest. This isn’t just a “not bad” look. This is a great look and about as near perfect a look you can get for the Deep South!

Edit: Of course, this is still just a 10 day out fantasy and will change! But at least this is a hint of what CAN happen with a far south tracking Gulf low below a record breaking 3/3-5 Midwest airmass.
 
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GaWx said:
12Z GFS will wake up those still sleeping. Clown has 1/2-1” snow @deltadog03 almost to @GeorgiaGirl and 3-4” just east of Columbia on 3/6 thanks to the central FL crossing of the low below a record breaking cold airmass in the Midwest. This isn’t just a “not bad” look. This is a great look and about as near perfect a look you can get for the Deep South!
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Excellent Post??☃️❄️
 
GaWx said:
And the 12Z GEFS through hour 192 continues the colder SE trends. Let’s see what happens later in this run. Model watching is becoming a lot of fun again.
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Looks like this is bucking the winter trend of "less cold as we approach verification". Although there is still a lot time for things to go bad.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I don't want to be a broken record, but this is the most consistent we have seen the models showing a storm signal since the December storm. I think this is the best legit shot we have had since then.
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Totally agree. As bad as the models have been. It has showed something for early March for several days now.
 
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