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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Another thing on the hype train... temps... it was just a few days ago the news was hyping how brutally, deathly cold it was going to get, yet the predicted lows were only in the 20s or maybe upper teens. I clearly remember MANY times throughout my childhood when temps dropped into the teens and single digits. They act like it’s earth shattering to get temps in the teens these days.

Rant over
 
snowlover91 said:
My experience in these situations (and being burned many years ago when first following weather models) is as follows.
1. The cold air is usually slower to arrive than modeled.
2. The back edge dries up quickly as earnest CAA kicks in.
3. Many times these “cold chasing moisture” scenarios end up with flurries at best on the backside.
4. The 3km NAM and RGEM blended is the best way to go in the short range.

Having said that I sure hope this event turns out differently but trusting the globals over high res models this close usually isn’t a good idea. Good luck everyone, I hope you get a nice snow!
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snowlover91 said:
It’s definitely a cold chasing moisture setup. Temperatures through the entire column have to cool enough before snow can fall and is the reason the RGEM and 3km NAM are very light with snow and show mostly rain before a brief ending as snow. Global models struggle to pick these things up. Trust me, I learned the hard way many years ago when I first started following the weather closely and watching models.
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snowlover91 said:
Wishing you guys the best of luck, I don’t see the NWS or global models verifying with this one but hope you all do see some snow!
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I posted these yesterday evening in the main thread for the snow. Following the 3km NAM and RGEM could have really saved the NWS from the heat they’re getting after this fail...

Also don’t forget the rules Rain Cold posted... following the warmest model (RGEM in this case) usually ends up being pretty accurate here in the south...
 
Tstorms in the gulf robbing moisture? Why the deathly cold air didn’t arrive in time, guess Chicago robbed it! :(2FEAE78A-F6E8-400C-AA7D-340773D15BA0.png
 
deltadog03 said:
Thing is you can’t wait until 5am day of to make that call for schools. That’s too late. Do we all forget that school do build into there schedules for weather days.
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So how many days will you and @Webberweather53 get suspended from work with no pay for missing this one..???????hahahaha j/k. This one is going to be hard to shallow for a lot of people.
 
TWC hit copy/paste for their 15 day forecast
rP9gC1qz2-xLHkc1YjYhv2QgMCsGOyFGJq_ayFYgSGhw3ZpMgDc8ZEYCqMZC_i58wJXfxewh-PRXMH1CbMeCd6GwXw_mttWCJXpnLPuaaPs0KEhtHeas6L0TxWt8RYf1Yq6tUFbtduFk1OP0lYh8CFDOqqNv3JiJ2vS3W-sEKHBmm_3yaIPzdFj3cqV9fWbFgJbQ5Nk9H50Hqq0K8mhb2J2zHltOkeVaeETCDI7KQcwzrryB3AG1P61uQD_bHUuaJDMHXOtZ3iwaoLKQnI4uCKwDHYo0ximA2CSTUHvMbEn70XNeHtURYXPFCexMfuvQotAMp8X8le9tU9r4ymn9haHr4VUWT-aIxRMaeneMs_5yWZ7hOAlIDQxRN3W5Q54e7IK5phlZR0uk4FI2KaKPrbjFnbM4hOYXQp0XZWfGMZ4e7c3orq3IKdJJVa0skXoQPTwi8VZInnEOkvg4OijRLUIaXDf0xuDV5QKjvVPVIRNEfLrmsYgtNEHEvofQOh2x5K_9V4d4ozbwP0VoVVkrMpdcef1Fh8q2uDvSeheP7OpXPETgRPgzE93SO-pNX8Kmv2q5jxDGACNCUCGJA-SqB9BWq79dsv4896q61oEVUt_nZoSvxtemburKHjF6lZGwCB9VZTLkIlZ2xvWr6xosUHlB=w832-h551-no
 
Snowflowxxl said:
There job is to get the forecast correct, yet they are wrong literally almost every time in GA. They need to be held accountable for their failures.

2014: Snow jam, they said it was not gonna impact the city that bad. SMH
2016: Forecasted 4 inches for the city, ended up with inches of rain. ZERO frozen precip. SMH
2017: Forecast an inch for the city and maybe no accumulations due to temps. City gets about 5 inches and just NW record snowfall. SMH
2018: Forecast an inch an shutdown the city. City gets rain, not even close for snow.

This is inexcusable.
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They predicted 0-1 inch for Metro Atlanta yesterday. At no point did FFC put any part of metro Atlanta under a winter storm warning nor did they say to anticipate a big event. If anything the governor and the media overhyped this.
 
SD said:
Not going to lie 2/7-9 isn't a bad look

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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I thought the first two weeks were a torch? According to some
 
deltadog03 said:
Thing is you can’t wait until 5am day of to make that call for schools. That’s too late. Do we all forget that school do build into there schedules for weather days.
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That’s inaccurate. I lived it. My Father was a school principal and I remember many times when school was cancelled or not the morning of. I can remember going to school 2 times one January when there was snow on the ground but none on the roads.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
It's simple. You wait till the morning of around 5am to make the call. By then the radar and model trends should pretty much tell you all you need to know. If still too close, then go ahead and shut it down. This morning it was very apparent by 5am that this wasnt gonna work out for many.

Ok i'm done .
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Common sense is a thing of the past.
 
DarkKnight said:
The weather has changed. We don’t even get fall or spring like we used too. Either cool and wet. Or. Hot and dry.
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Seriously!! It seems like summer is like 10 months long, then you have 2 months of not hot as summer, and that’s it!
 
SD said:
I just want to see the models ramp way up at 12z and panic ensue only to fail tonight

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12z 12k nam is off to a bad start.
 
RobertRath said:
That’s inaccurate. I lived it. My Father was a school principal and I remember many times when school was cancelled or not the morning of. I can remember going to school 2 times one January when there was snow on the ground but none on the roads.
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Here in my county, busses start their runs at 5 AM
 
RobertRath said:
That’s inaccurate. I lived it. My Father was a school principal and I remember many times when school was cancelled or not the morning of. I can remember going to school 2 times one January when there was snow on the ground but none on the roads.
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deltadog03 said:
Well that might be your district. Either way, it would be stupid (IMHO) to wait until 5 am the morning of the event to see if you should close school or not.
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The truth is now... everything is judge differently now and if someone gets a little cut on their finger your going to get your ass sued!!! That’s why schools are afraid to let them go. Afraid about being sued by money hungry people.
Why you think they have the commercial now. “In a wreck need a check”!!!

So give delta a break...
 
deltadog03 said:
Thing is you can’t wait until 5am day of to make that call for schools. That’s too late. Do we all forget that school do build into there schedules for weather days.
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Your exactly right Chris, our district only has 3 weeks until winter break and winter break can be used for makeup days. I think the talk of a freeze over played a lot in the decision making, Ive heard more about plummeting temps than the threat of an inch of snow. Easier to go ahead and use a day.
 
DarkKnight said:
The truth is now... everything is judge differently now and if someone gets a little cut on their finger your going to get your ass sued!!! That’s why schools are afraid to let them go. Afraid about being sued by money hungry people.
Why you think they have the commercial now. “In a wreck need a check”!!!

So give delta a break...
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Does SER understand the Midwest cancels school if there is a chances of tornados when TWC hypes tornado outbreaks? Does it always happen? No but like you said you have to be safe and not sorry.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Would have went with one inch at the very most, this setup didn't argue for anything more than that and idk why so many mets went all in w/ WSWs and 2-4" because this clearly didn't support it. Would have been a completely different story if a legitimate wave of low pressure developed on the front and slung moisture back into the cold air, increasing the intensity & duration as well as areal coverage of the snow but that obviously wasn't going to happen.
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The problem as well is everyone kept posting those stupid precip type/QPF maps as if they were radar. That used to happen years ago to a lesser extent with the 6 hr to 12hr QPF map/0C 850mb. Everyone needs to be aware about what they are posting and what that chart actually means.

As I said earlier, I am not salty at all and I went to bed early last night because my expectations was dirt low. I was pleased with some models showing something, but needed a miracle. It was a bad setup from the start and as Webb said, we needed the low and didn't get it and this needed a miracle.

Its a stinger and a good learning experience for many. Expecting cold air to be as deep as modeled in a setup like this will fail every time.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Here in my county, busses start their runs at 5 AM
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You must be in VERY rural area for buses to be starting that early, but either way it’s still simple. The Superintendent communicates with local authorities to check road conditions and then make a decision.

deltadog03 said:
All I’m saying if there is snow in the forecast there is not reason to wait until 5am day of to make that call.
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Sure there is, you save days like today or days when it may accumulate on grassy areas but not pavement.
 
Yea back when I was in middle and high school I use to wake up and ask parents if we had school or not. School never made decision until the morning before. Would always go to sleep the night before hoping lol.
 
RobertRath said:
You must be in VERY rural area for buses to be starting that early, but either way it’s still simple. The Superintendent communicates with local authorities to check road conditions and then make a decision.



Sure there is, you save days like today or days when it may accumulate on grassy areas but not pavement.
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They actually have an “ice” team of higher ups that go check road conditions theirselves around 3-4 AM. We are the biggest district in the state, why they have to start busses early, we don’t live in Bumfuq
 
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