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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Usually a good sign when Alaska is well BN.

When those troughs setup over Alaska, they usually don’t have staying power. Typically only take a few weeks to rid.

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but also don’t they have the deadliest creatures over there ? Like the redback spider, wanderer spider and some of the most venomous snakes in the world, and yes there was a recorded low of 35.9 c
 
It's been 33 and raining here for 5 straight hours. This sucks !
Yeah those snow pics really screwed you
Maybe it’s that the pattern is just too loaded y’all.
Until I hear this from Brick I won’t believe it. I need his reassurance that the loaded patterns rarely work out and we need to go back to the bad pattern in December to have a shot.
 
Remember last week when I said that retrograding AK ridge was a bad sign on the long range GEFS..This is only the beginning imo
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Remember last week when I said that retrograding AK ridge was a bad sign on the long range GEFS..This is only the beginning imo
View attachment 11907

Unfortunately, Alaskan highs usually retrograde & cycle thru in a period of 1-2 weeks, leading to (more) troughing in the Rockies thereafter unless there's a continuous resupply of anticyclonic wavebreakers from the NE Pacific thus -EPOs eventually turn into -WPOs that later degrade over NE Siberia. Planetary vorticity advection at its finest!
NCEP R1 Top 20 -EPO Days Day +6.gif
 
Hey Webb do you got a map of those convective snow showers back in Feb 2013, such a interesting event I will never forgot
 
There was also another to in feb 2013, had a mcs structure and was producing snow into the midlands, had convective features and a outflow with a cool pool
 
I bet these are flying off the shelves
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Remember last week when I said that retrograding AK ridge was a bad sign on the long range GEFS..This is only the beginning imo
View attachment 11907

Terrible. I can turn out the lights on winter if this is real and I can't score before February. I might really have to wish that 26th-28th storm onto at least Lafayette if not me (right now it looks good but still not great).
 
Why chase mid to long term wambulances when we could also chase decadal wambulances??

It's definitely worse than we think:

I can already see it. We have an atmospheric lag La Nina this year, but next year will be a lag Nino, until it actually turns into another Super, but far west based Nino. Then all the cold water in and around the Maritime continent from the MJO being stuck there the next 6 months will clash with the super Nino warm waters to the east and north and will create perma-convection there and giant walker cells. OLR maps will look like Jupiter's giant red spot, but purple and blue. But patience, this will lead to another SSW with the largest -NAO (-7 standard deviations) in history coming a month later. The Pac won't cooperate with it because of the Walker cells though, so 33 and rain at least for next winter. This will then melt enough of the ice in Greenland for a Bond event and then we reset and try again. By that time we will be in the bottom of the next Maunder minimum, too. With the Bond event, we may even have a new SST index in the Atlantic, but with Norse names instead of Spanish.
 
an atmospheric lag La Nina this year

Tbh this might actually be true with what's being discussed. The SOI numbers, MJO stalling in the warm phases, and finally if the retrograding AK ridge does happen, at least two of those, the SOI was unprecedented for what's supposed to be a Nino, and the last I heard about the AK ridge, even if it happened after then, was with 2012's very mild winter.
 
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