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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Earlier today the WPC was going with the NAM/EURO/CMC/FV3 as their model blend with less weight given to the GFS/UKIE. The GFS seems to be continuing the issue it's had for the last 24 hours of being too progressive with the track of the low and sliding it out. WPC specifically mentioned that as the reason they were giving it less weight and they also mentioned that it's a GFS bias.
 
I hope that if this does turn into an icy mess for places like Atlanta that officials will warn the public in time and avoid some of the gridlock that occurred last time. At least this won't be occurring during the work week. I have noticed that NWS disco's seem to generally be taking the magnitude of the storm pretty seriously.
 
So, what criteria are folks like RAH and WRAL using for their forecasts that are so different from what most of the models have been showing all day?
 
DarkKnight said:
I love it when Brad Travis says ground temps are too warm right now for significant accumulation Sunday Night and Monday.
Kinda funny past 2 nights we have lows at 24 degrees and highs of about 38. Hilarious.
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Ground temps don't change swiftly. And it's been a cold three weeks really.
 
Storm5 said:
They are not looking at clown maps to make their forecast ...


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So, what are they using? What other factors can they see right now that would say the models are wrong?
 
Avalanche said:
G

Cloudy with rain and 39 degrees for Sunday with rain and a wintry mix nw of the triangle. Wral
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That high temperature is going to need to be adjusted downward to 34-36 based on recent model runs. That projected high is about 4-6 degrees warmer than nearly all of the models. NWS RAH still expects a changeover to rain by 10am Sunday, but the recent models indicate snow well into Sunday afternoon or evening.
 
Brick Tamland said:
So, what are they using? What other factors can they see right now that would say the models are wrong?
Click to expand...

Experience,climatology, appreciation of individual models strengths/weaknesses. Some will say meteorology not modelology.


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SEE HIGHLIGHTED TEXT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1047 PM CST WED DEC 5 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A VERY COLD NIGHT ON TAP AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN COLDER AND LOWERED
MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH CALM
CONDITIONS BY 9 PM IN MOST AREAS.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

***UPDATED FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY.

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS LONG RANGE DISCUSSION, RAIN CHANCES HAVE
BEEN INCREASED AND EXPANDED EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN QUICKLY INTO NORTH
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY, AND COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WINTRY MIX WITH THE ONSET OF THE RAIN,
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES, AND A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID FORM.

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE REVERSED COURSE WITH REGARD TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW. THE GFS IS NOW COLDER WITH
RESPECT TO 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES AND THE ECMWF IS WARMER.
OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE LOWER THICKNESS VALUES, AT LEAST
THOSE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIXTURE, WILL BE LOCATED OVER
FAR WEST ALABAMA MONDAY MORNING. THE LOWER THICKNESS VALUES WILL
ADVECT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
KEEP PCPN ALL RAIN EAST OF I-65 MONDAY MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW FOR AREAS WEST OF I-65 IN THE
AFTERNOON, THE MOISTURE LAYER IS SHALLOW AT THAT TIME AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO ANY SNOW
WOULD LIKELY MELT UPON IMPACT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR MASS
SHIFTS INTO EAST ALABAMA, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIFTING OUT, AND
OVERLAP OF PCPN WITH THE COLDER AIR IS NOT IN PHASE.

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201812060447-KBMX-FXUS64-AFDBMX
 
I'll post this here since most activity is here:
Code: 
[Thu Dec 06 00:26:22.650136 2018] [mpm_prefork:error] [pid 14348] AH00161: server reached MaxRequestWorkers setting, consider raising the MaxRequestWorkers setting

Basically, we are going to need an upgrade, that's why the server is acting up. ;)
 
Thats going to have to be some special HP to keep thermal profiles good enough to support those clown maps. Wish it were true, but...
 
fv3p_asnow_eus_26.png
What the heck? No good? Well maybe you didn't get 50 inches so y'all can settle for 33 inches
 
Something is weird if amwx is going down too. Really weird. It happened last night around this same time... and I know that amwx have the resources to handle it like I think we do.
 
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