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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png
And to start 18z run, nam is much further west than 12z
 
Check this 12Z GFS vs 12Z UKMET comparison through hour 12 or 8 PM EDT this evening:

- hour 0 (8 AM EDT): 12Z GFS at 18.7N, 87.0W. 12Z UKMET is then placed at 18.7N, 86.7W (pretty similar).
- hour 6 (2 PM EDT): 12Z GFS 19.4N, 85.6W. So, GFS shifted ENE to near this 2nd stronger center that the recon found. No UKMET hour 6 available.
- **hour 12 (8 PM EDT): 12Z GFS 20.0N, 86.2W. So, the GFS shifts him back NW as of 8 PM. Compare this to the 8PM EDT 12Z UKMET position of 19.5N, 85.6W, which is due north of the recon's stronger low. This is why I think advantage shifting to UKMET.

So, it would be great if there is a recon position at 8 PM!!
 
GaWx said:
Possible major development: per what I've been seeing with recon, there apparently is a stronger center (~1000 mb) a whopping full degree EAST of the NHC track as well as the non UKMET 12Z model consensus. This is actually very close to where the 12Z UKMET, which is about a full degree east of all of the other major models at 12Z, has it as of 8 PM EDT this evening. Advantage may be going to the 12Z UKMET very shortly here.
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Yep. 999mb at the new center. Winds in the bands on the east side are quite strong too, maybe up to 50 or 60 mph. I would say 50 at 5 pm.
 
18z icon is little further west at landfall. So far 18z suits with Nam and icon is little west from 12z
 
How large is this compared to Florence? One reason Flo was so bad is because of the size, which meant a lot.of rain.
 
just throwing this out there as well......center relocations are very likely when these systems first get going. Does it have an effect on long term motion....sometimes. So, lets see what recon shows on this next pass. I think we finally have a good center to start tracking and the 00z model runs should have a better handle. I think those runs will definitely have a better handle on tracks...and trends...either west or east...
 
18z GFS is a little faster than 12z and slower at strengthening, seems as if it's going to be a slightly different solution.

Edit: Actually now seems like there's just minimal differences now.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
18z GFS is a little faster than 12z and slower at strengthening, seems as if it's going to be a slightly different solution.

Edit: Actually now seems like there's just minimal differences now.
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At hour 30, the 18Z GFS is at 22.5N, 86.4W vs the 12Z GFS 36 hour of 23.1N, 86.1W. So, the 18Z GFS so far is SSW of the 12Z GFS position.
 
A019195B-2A0A-452F-B845-F24BA772F7F3.png Dryslotted! Winning! :(
 
18Z GFS hour 48 nearly identical to the 12Z GFS hour 54.
 
D3CA76E4-AC9B-4268-8214-913D3911C77A.png B Rads thoughts....
 
Can the front/trough coming East, actually pull Michael towards itself briefly, slightly west pull, before the NE movements?
 
Henry2326 said:
24 hours sooner than the Euro.
Its all about the timing.
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As of 8 AM EDT Wednesday, the 12Z Euro is at 26.5N, 87.3W, the 12Z UKMET is at 27.5N, 85.1W, and the 18Z GFS is at 29.0N, 87.3W. So, the 18Z GFS is then a whopping 175 miles N of the 12Z Euro and the UKMET is 150 miles ENE of the 12Z Euro! That's major disagreement at day 3!
 
GaWx said:
As of 8 AM EDT Wednesday, the 12Z Euro is at 26.5N, 87.3W, the 12Z UKMET is at 27.5N, 85.1W, and the 18Z GFS is at 29.0N, 87.3W. So, the 18Z GFS is then a whopping 175 miles N of the 12Z Euro and the UKMET is 150 miles ENE of the 12Z Euro! That's major disagreement at day 3!
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Yup ... the jury still has evidence to consider ... ;)
 
Get a load of this: the 18Z FV3 initialized at 19.2N, 84.5W vs its 12Z 6 hour position of 19.4N, 86.7W and the 18Z GFS init of 18.8N, 85.8W!!! We've got just a bit of confusion here.
 
GaWx said:
Get a load of this: the 18Z FV3 initialized at 19.2N, 84.5W vs its 12Z 6 hour position of 19.4N, 86.7W and the 18Z GFS init of 18.8N, 85.8W!!! We've got just a bit of confusion here.
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So basically the race is starting at different places for different horses? Wonder if they will true that up at midnight?

Also the difference in Euro and GFS is happening slightly out of the passage gate in addition to a big jump between noon Monday and noon Tuesday.

Edit: earlier today you said that the Euro and Ukmet tends to go west or east of the other models and we should consider a Big Bend scenario. I said that could be a 250 or more mile error in a forecast model. You might have found it.
 
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fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png
FV3 18z same landfall area as 12z, even when the fv3 started out right on the initial area of the new center.
 
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