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Pattern October Oscitance

GaWx said:
I did a study a few years ago that suggested a moderate correlation between cold Novembers and cold winters. However, I think the correlation between cold Oct and cold winters is minuscule at best. I just don’t want us to stay warm through November so that cold winter chances won’t be lower vs where they’d be if there is instead a cold November.

Have you ever heard this line? “The wx in November the winter will remember”? I believe it to SOME extent due to my study. I’d rather change it to “the wx in November the winter MAY remember.”
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The thought is not Nov., but October ... but I concur with you 100% ... pardon me if I'm not clear ... just like to see things set in after 12/1 ... seems to "stick" around longer in our 40 acres ... :cool:
 
I would just like some average weather. We have been stuck under this ridge for about 6 weeks and counting. Dallas, TX is forecast mid 60s week after next and we may sniff some 70s if it ever verifies.
 
J.C. said:
I would just like some average weather. We have been stuck under this ridge for about 6 weeks and counting. Dallas, TX is forecast mid 60s week after next and we may sniff some 70s if it ever verifies.
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news had a high of 68 at the end of the day 10 earlier...

But it has before a couple weeks ago and it didn't verify... lol
 
18z FV3 was money from about 270’ish til the end of the run. Gonna be a lot of stuffy noses if that verifies
 
fv3p_asnow_us_41.png
This is incredible if all that snow happens
 
Per the 06z GFS, cool down for the upper south is now now inside 7 days, a little faster than previously shown. 180hr shows a nice pocket of cool air in Virginia, extending southward into NWNC and WNC.
 
BlueRidgeFolklore said:
Per the 06z GFS, cool down for the upper south is now now inside 7 days, a little faster than previously shown. 180hr shows a nice pocket of cool air in Virginia, extending southward into NWNC and WNC.
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Unfortunately the FV3 and the Euro not as enthusiastic, even though the FV3 does finally show the cool down it also looks to be short lived... steps in the right direction however, maybe
 
metwannabe said:
Unfortunately the FV3 and the Euro not as enthusiastic, even though the FV3 does finally show the cool down it also looks to be short lived... steps in the right direction however, maybe
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We have been kicking this can down the road for some time now. Atleast +10 departures in November should be 70/50's.

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Remembering back to our spring, we had fairly cold March-April and then we flipped straight to summer in May. That sucked.

marchapril.png May.png
 
metwannabe said:
Unfortunately the FV3 and the Euro not as enthusiastic, even though the FV3 does finally show the cool down it also looks to be short lived... steps in the right direction however, maybe
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The FV3 was close around the same time but not entirely there. You are right, baby steps. We are seeing improvements and each run is closer and closer and less kicking down the road. Hopefully they'll find some agreement soon.
 
Yeah it’s gonna be a “see it to believe it” kinda fall/winter. Seemingly anything outside of D7 is sketchy.


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MichaelJ said:
I'll just leave this here, it is the latest winter outlook for the EURO

View attachment 6676

The previous one

ecmwf_seasonal_201809_z500a_DJF(4).png
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Three cold Euro DJF forecasts in a row! It is believable, especially due to the prospects of a weak el Nino. But I'll warn/remind folks that not all SE US forecasts out there are cold. I saw a forecast from the very respectable Reliant Wx, and it is slightly warmer than normal in both Dec and Jan and slightly colder than normal in Feb giving the SE a near normal DJF.
 
GaWx said:
Three cold Euro DJF forecasts in a row! It is believable, especially due to the prospects of a weak el Nino. But I'll warn/remind folks that not all SE US forecasts out there are cold. I saw a forecast from the very respectable Reliant Wx, and it is slightly warmer than normal in both Dec and Jan and slightly colder than normal in Feb giving the SE a near normal DJF.
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Down here, forecasts be damned; what'll happen, happens (or, it is what it is) ... too many years (and tears) in either direction to go to the bank on a Sept/Oct deep south forecast ... remember the 1st week of Jan last year, for maybe a quick instance ...
 
May I (without being obstinate)?
Right now, we have about 15 models showing some sort of tropical something or other in the next 7 to 15 days, ranging from a hurricane to a lawn sprinkler, anywhere from my back yard to Brent's.
So, with winter being basically 2 months out there, enjoy the modeling and thoughts, but the groceries are not yet in the cart, much less in the check-out line at Publix, Ingles, Bi-Low ...
 
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18z GFS/FV3 are winners, hope it's not the doofus and the model that's supposed to be an upgrade off it teasing us again and it looks the same next week.
 
Goofus predicting Octsnowber means he’s back to his old self and out of his summer slumber. Let’s get this bad boy under D7.


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Storm5 said:
Pitch black dark at 725 !!! Headed towards the best season of the year !!!


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And still 84 degrees!o_O
 
00z GFS has us (Carolinas) in the 30’s and 40’s for 48 consecutive hours from 252-300 :)

Time to do some weedeating around the fire pit
 
GFS almost has the average winter highs here lol beyond this coming week

I'll be in Chicago next weekend and it's looking quite cold...
 
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Brent said:
GFS almost has the average winter highs here lol beyond this coming week

I'll be in Chicago next weekend and it's looking quite cold...
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Well, the GFS has us going from lows in the low 70s on the 12th to lows in the low 40s on the 17th, only 5 days apart with a sharp drop around the 15th. Way above to way below. I'll welcome it if it verifies of course.
 
You guys know I am bullish on the upcoming winter and said back in Sept I didn't see a major pattern change until Oct 15th or later. That said, I am not buying a change of this magnitude quite yet and think (and hope) it is a more gradual "step down" process
 
ForsythSnow said:
Well, the GFS has us going from lows in the low 70s on the 12th to lows in the low 40s on the 17th, only 5 days apart with a sharp drop around the 15th. Way above to way below. I'll welcome it if it verifies of course.
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Bring it I'm sick and tired of killing wasp.

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