That she blows! Upper levels and BL, need some work, but when don’t they? Can iron out the details, as we head into Dumpster December!
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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
That she blows! Upper levels and BL, need some work, but when don’t they? Can iron out the details, as we head into Dumpster December!
pcbjr
Member
Holiday Cheer ...View attachment 7482 That she blows! Upper levels and BL, need some work, but when don’t they? Can iron out the details, as we head into Dumpster December!
... but frankly, ain't nothin' worth a hoot until close to mid-December, IMHO ...
Ilovesnow28
Member
Thanks for the info webber! I'm definitely a visual learner and going to be studying more on it..
GFS FV3 has snow in Tennessee, North Carolina between the hours 234 to hour 252.
That is some pathetic high pressure. All we need now is a stronger HP to show up and shove our moisture to Puerto Rico..View attachment 7482 That she blows! Upper levels and BL, need some work, but when don’t they? Can iron out the details, as we head into Dumpster December!
The latest GFS has a southern slider except it is very suppressed and there is no cold air on December 2.
Jessy89
Member
How is it surpressed without cold air? I thought storms was surpressed when high pressure is to strong. Early indications look like no southeast snow storm the first week of December. Hope I’m wrong. Maybe mid December will look better
Jon
Member
It’s suppressed under high pressure and taps the gulf, the issue is its hour 324 and the GFS has no idea what it’s doing. What I’d take away from this is there’s an active STJ spitting out systems... it’s simply too far out to make a case for anything but that.
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cd2play
Member
That's depressing.. I mean that's suppressing
Kylo
Member
That sure is easy on the eyes. PNA ridge connected to wb NAO.
Latest GFS model still has the Gulf low but it is further south.
Maybe if we can’t get snow out of this early pattern we can at least break some land speed records
You serious Clark?
cd2play
Member
As long as the payout is better than a measly "Jelly of the month" club
I recommend folks don’t compare these weathermodels.com numbers for the -AO/-NAO to the ones we’re used to seeing as they are highly inflated. This has been noted the last year of two. They’re not apples to apples.
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“Suppressing” is a relative term and is anything but depressing for folks in the southern portion of the forum membership like Phil and myself. “Suppressed” is always good from our perspective.
pcbjr
Member
Man, where you been? All these indices pointing to the greatest winter ever in the southeast! Even the unicorn-NAO! What’s your thoughts? Are we losing the -NAO on the models already?
Although Phil and myself have actually had a warmer than normal Nov so far (that will likely change in the 2nd half), the bulk of the country has been colder than normal. From research I did a number of years ago that was presented at American (one nasty guy there called it “garbage”/I’ll never forget that and is one of the reasons I’ll never go back there (terrible moderators overall)), a colder than normal SE November is partially correlated to a colder than normal SE DJF. So, I think a cold Nov (for most) is good news.