Losing the -NAO? We’re about to have a strong -NAO/-AO. Who cares if it temporarily rises back up in 2 weeks? They’re cyclical.
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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Losing the -NAO? We’re about to have a strong -NAO/-AO. Who cares if it temporarily rises back up in 2 weeks? They’re cyclical.
SnowNiner
Member
And it keeps getting closer and closer. Very nice. Still want to keep expectations low with climatology, but looking at what's coming I'm deep down hoping we score.
GFS drops the low but it is the 18z.
The 18z GEFS is nothing short of amazing 192hrs through end of the run. If we get that pattern to lock in on into winter, we will score. Love that +PNA, and just extra with the -NAO to boot.
Snownut
Member
We just need a gulf low now to go with that!
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
The GFS has been off and on showing a Gulf Low December 1-2.
Hmm, starting to think our first threat may actually appear before December.
This is the 18z GFS and it looks amazing.
The 12z Euro/EPS is different, but it too shortly pumps the PNA and carves out a strong east trough. However, if the euro/EPS bias on under pumping the western ridge still occurs, something decent may pop in this time frame.
Buckle up.
This is the 18z GFS and it looks amazing.
The 12z Euro/EPS is different, but it too shortly pumps the PNA and carves out a strong east trough. However, if the euro/EPS bias on under pumping the western ridge still occurs, something decent may pop in this time frame.
Buckle up.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
What a beautiful tall ridge in the west. That's how we got the storm last year in December. Would be fun to do it again. Just have to watch trends but it's time to start watching anyway.Hmm, starting to think our first threat may actually appear before December.
This is the 18z GFS and it looks amazing.
The 12z Euro/EPS is different, but it too shortly pumps the PNA and carves out a strong east trough.
Seeing a lot of comparisons to December 2017.
Hopefully, RDU doesn't get cold rain again...December has been painful for snow lovers in this area in the past 10-15 years with the sole exception of 2010. At least this December looks like it may actually have potential threats!
Hopefully, RDU doesn't get cold rain again...December has been painful for snow lovers in this area in the past 10-15 years with the sole exception of 2010. At least this December looks like it may actually have potential threats!
Ukie 2m temperature winter (DJF) forecast. In an age of “warming”, this is a sight for sore eyes. Courtesy American
It doesn’t take into account the lee side , Savannah River heat bubble!
lol but I see a blue CAD finger so that means BLOCKING. Swiss Model monthlies handle the urban heat islands better
Hmmmm... TWC sniffing something!?
Gotta love the 2 week 33 degree snow forecast. They’re smelling something all right. It’s called rain 
In all seriousness I can’t wait to see this -NAO feature on the models in the next couple of weeks/months. It’s been a while. Should make for some epic 240hr clown maps even if it ends up raining
In all seriousness I can’t wait to see this -NAO feature on the models in the next couple of weeks/months. It’s been a while. Should make for some epic 240hr clown maps even if it ends up raining
If I remember correctly. The weather channel app and website gets it weather data directly from the gfs model. It has no human factor input in it. At least in the long range forecast.
Other than it being hour 336, this track is right where we want.... give me that inevitable NW trend and jackpot
Yep. 2m’s are fine for many. 850’s are fine for many. We can do better than a 1028 though. One can imagineOther than it being hour 336, this track is right where we want.... give me that inevitable NW trend and jackpot
That’s actually a quite perfect setup for snow in Carolinas.. NW trend and it’s all fun and games.. The high pressure placement is perfect as it will most likely strengthen as we get closer to time.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Other than it being hour 336, this track is right where we want.... give me that inevitable NW trend and jackpot
Yes. was thinking the same thing. Love having something to watch out for so early in the season.