Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

[Webberweather53]

Speaking for Raleigh it’s Weak over Moderate. All intensities of La Ninas are king over El Niño’s for RDU snow though.


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Yeah this is true from what I can tell, when La Ninas or cold neutral ENSO winters are snowy, the heaviest axis of snow is usually centered in/around Raleigh more often than it is in El Ninos.








1933-34, 1936-37, 1937-38, 1942-43, 1954-55, 1975-76, 1983-84, 1999-00, & 2001-02 are some other good examples I'm fully aware of and haven't gotten to quite yet.

 

[J.C.]

Does anybody know which types of winters tend to produce the most cold air damming events? I would think it would have to be weaker el ninos right?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Does anybody know which types of winters tend to produce the most cold air damming events? I would think it would have to be weaker el ninos right?

I’m guessing whichever one can get us a -NAO

 

[GaWx]

Does anybody know which types of winters tend to produce the most cold air damming events? I would think it would have to be weaker el ninos right?

Regarding major ZR and IP storms in ATL and nearby: Cold neutral has easily had the most. Of El Niño’s, weak for sure though one of the worst ever was 1/1973, which was during a very strong El Niño.

*Edited to add IP

 

[cyclogent]

Finished building my analogs...
1) First I imported the monthly mean temps for CHA for the entire period of record from NWS-MRX nowdata page ...140 years of data!
2) Next I filtered down to years that are within 3 degrees of 2018 for each month of August, September, and October, then filtered out non-Nino years.

The result is:
1911-12
1939-40
2002-03
2014-15

The temperature pattern is remarkably consistent across this set, with below normal temps in November, January, February, and above normal in December (except 2002 which was slightly below). Overall November-February temperatures in all 4 analog years between -2.2 and -3.1 below normal (average -2.6). The other thing to note is the month-over-month distribution of below normal temps come in a "buy now / pay later" or "save now / get later" package over the course of the winter, meaning any "extra" cold in any given month is taken away from the others. 2002 had the coolest December of the 4 years but then was the least cold of the January/Februarys. 1940 had the coldest January but also had the least cold December/February, so the main question on the cold isn't if, it's when. NOV/DEC combined averages 0.4 below normal and JAN/FEB combined averages 4.8 below normal. Extreme cold is consistent as all 4 winters had at least 2 days with single-digits lows at CHA. So, needless to say, prepare the pipes and check your anti-freeze.

 

[SnowNiner]

I’m guessing whichever one can get us a -NAO

Yeah I agree on this. To me el-nino is going to help us get the moisture here but not necessarily the cold. Ok, we have the nino, we'll probably be wet. But do we get a good suppressed flow and cold with an -NAO? That's the complete unknown right now. I've gotten snow in CLT the last 4 years or so in Super nino, la-nina, la nada, etc. So I don't think nino is be all end all (as Brad P's graphic showed). However with a constant flow of moisture to our south, I love our chances if we can just get a few decent weeks of good Atlantic blocking. Really, if we get good blocking it could be a historic snowy wonderland. If we get none, and the pacific doesn't help either, it could be a cool, raining, miserable mess of a year.

I'm waiting until the December pattern sets up to really understand what we're going to have this winter. Usually by then the winter starts to show its cards.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I kinda want to see a classic Miller A this year as my name implies.

 

[MichaelJ]

Prefacing this forecast with the caveat that "weather is going to do what weather does" I will take a stab at my prediction.
Dec.
This will be a somewhat volatile month with the first part of the month being AN and the second half BN and averaging out to about -1. The colder areas will be Tenn., N Ala. and N. Ga relative to the averages. As the wavelengths shorten in late Dec, I would not be surprised to see an accumulating snow or 2 late in the month in E Tenn. and NC Moutains . Also some areas subject to CAD events are likely to have an icing event
January
This will be our coldest month in raw numbers but slightly above Feb relative the the averages. Most areas will be 3-4 BN with the colder areas (compared to averages) being Tenn, NC, and N Ga and SC. Look for a potentially big snow maker for all areas north of Mid Ga and east of Western Tenn.
February
Coldest month compared to the averages of any winter month. There will be a lot of volatility with the Western US being so warm compared to the cold in the East. Several tracking events will be available with a few bigger snow potential storms and 3-4 CAD events especially in N Car. I would put the averages in the Va., NC, N SC N Ga and most of Tenn/Ala at 4-6 BN and areas S of that 2-4BN
March
Compared ro Jan and Feb, March will be kind of boring with temps avg 1-2BN and a couple of icing events and a snow event for Va., NC

I should also announce I am making myself available for Tarot Card and Palm Readings

 

[Jon]

Yeah this is true from what I can tell, when La Ninas or cold neutral ENSO winters are snowy, the heaviest axis of snow is usually centered in/around Raleigh more often than it is in El Ninos.

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1933-34, 1936-37, 1937-38, 1942-43, 1954-55, 1975-76, 1983-84, 1999-00, & 2001-02 are some other good examples I'm fully aware of and haven't gotten to quite yet.

Ignore the literal screenshot... I’m too lazy to go upstairs and grab it off my computer.

Ranking average snowfall and ENSO for RDU. Cold Neutral would probably take the cake as they beat out basically all enso states but I didn’t include it.

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[Round Oak Weather]

If everything continues to go as forecasted and it lines up like predicted then it outta be a good one like the ones my dad talks about from when he was younger. Will everything go as predicted tho most likely not but we can only hope.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I had a yearly total of 12" in Dallas, GA, one county west of Cobb in 2008 or 2009, can't remember.

March 2009. Don't remind me. That was the ULL of absolute boom or bust everywhere. Not even just here, but family from even further north of there in the state (straight north) told us they had 0" from that snow event and I'm pretty sure they had a Winter Storm Warning too. That's most likely what you're remembering.

Edit: To make this not completely OT (and frankly being bitter about what will be 10 years ago in March next year), if we can get a -NAO this would be the year for the Miller A almost board wide storm.

 

[NoSnowATL]

March 2009. Don't remind me. That was the ULL of absolute boom or bust everywhere. Not even just here, but family from even further north of there in the state (straight north) told us they had 0" from that snow event and I'm pretty sure they had a Winter Storm Warning too. That's most likely what you're remembering.

Edit: To make this not completely OT (and frankly being bitter about what will be 10 years ago in March next year), if we can get a -NAO this would be the year for the Miller A almost board wide storm.

Yes 2009. Had 7in from that ULL. I was under a Heavy Snow Warning and it was AWESOME!

 

[ForsythSnow]

March 2009. Don't remind me. That was the ULL of absolute boom or bust everywhere. Not even just here, but family from even further north of there in the state (straight north) told us they had 0" from that snow event and I'm pretty sure they had a Winter Storm Warning too. That's most likely what you're remembering.

Edit: To make this not completely OT (and frankly being bitter about what will be 10 years ago in March next year), if we can get a -NAO this would be the year for the Miller A almost board wide storm.

Now that I look back, I believe that was the one where it snowed but nothing stuck. It only did further south and it was infuriating at the time. Don't want to see another storm like that.

 

[Tarheel1]

Now that I look back, I believe that was the one where it snowed but nothing stuck. It only did further south and it was infuriating at the time. Don't want to see another storm like that.

One of the few times I actually jackpotted! Had 8”+ of paste!! After rain all day and thunderstorms in the morning, it went to sleet about 2-3 pm and ripped for a few hours! Had a low the next night of about 15 degrees! Talk about backloaded, think that was the only snow for me all winter!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

March 2009 was top 2-3 March snows around here that I can remember. I was young during the 93’ storm of the century but I remember conditions weren’t the most favorable during March 2009 but we still scored bigly. Could have been 12-18” had things worked out just a little better. Great snowstorm

 

[Stormdoc]

Ignore the literal screenshot... I’m too lazy to go upstairs and grab it off my computer.

Ranking average snowfall and ENSO for RDU. Cold Neutral would probably take the cake as they beat out basically all enso states but I didn’t include it.

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Ok wow so why have I been pulling for an El Niño??

 

[cd2play]

One of the few times I actually jackpotted! Had 8”+ of paste!! After rain all day and thunderstorms in the morning, it went to sleet about 2-3 pm and ripped for a few hours! Had a low the next night of about 15 degrees! Talk about backloaded, think that was the only snow for me all winter!

Seems like the 2008-09 winter was one of those winters where some areas got "snow-holed" ... of course I was in one of them

 

[cd2play]

March 2009 was top 2-3 March snows around here that I can remember. I was a young during the 93’ storm of the century but I remember conditions weren’t the most favorable during March 2009 but we still scored bigly. Could have been 12-18” had things worked out just a little better. Great snowstorm

Especially given that snow in March is basically a bonus.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Give me this setup in January and....we rain!

Look at that bomb lmao. 850’s are scorching. Got to have a damn damming high around here then maybe we can at least get some IP/ZR. I will not be fooled again this winter (yes I will). On a more current note, it looks like our first boardwide freeze will happen very soon.. thanks for tolerating my amateur fantasy model analysis

 

[BIG FROSTY]

DDT Winter outlook!