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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Storm5 said:
No , questions like this are not allowed . How dare you question the possibility of something screwing up our perfectly placed snowy cold winter


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Haha true. How could I forget!

In his winter outlook, DT said he expects the QBO to fall between -10 and +10. However, it is currently hauling a+$$ into positive territory, like a bat out of H E double hockey sticks.
 
Rain Cold said:
Haha true. How could I forget!

In his winter outlook, DT said he expects the QBO to fall between -10 and +10. However, it is currently hauling a+$$ into positive territory, like a bat out of H E double hockey sticks.
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Always worried about something because it's always something that screws up the perfect season. The advertised -NAO in mid November seems to have melted away in the long range. Looks much like the last 3 winters. Some western ridging, +AO/-EPO/+NAO with a side of west atlantic ridging. Persistence. Still going with that as my winter forecast until it stops doing it.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_51.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Always worried about something because it's always something that screws up the perfect season. The advertised -NAO in mid November seems to have melted away in the long range. Looks much like the last 3 winters. Some western ridging, +AO/-EPO/+NAO with a side of west atlantic ridging. Persistence. Still going with that as my winter forecast until it stops doing it.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_51.png
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Yes indeed, there's always a fly waiting in the ointment. I'm not worried about what the models are showing for the NAO until we get into early/mid-December. However, as a general rule, I don't care for very high or very low QBO values during the winter. But that concern may be silly, since I don't understand it all that well. Also, to add to my uncertainty, no matter what the QBO value is, there is always a camp stating that it won't hurt and an opposing camp saying it's completely disastrous. So, I end up hoping for something close to neutral.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yes indeed, there's always a fly waiting in the ointment. I'm not worried about what the models are showing for the NAO until we get into early/mid-December. However, as a general rule, I don't care for very high or very low QBO values during the winter. But that concern may be silly, since I don't understand it all that well. Also, to add to my uncertainty, no matter what the QBO value is, there is always a camp stating that it won't hurt and an opposing camp saying it's completely disastrous. So, I end up hoping for something close to neutral.
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That's pretty smart! lol. If you see three of them, aim for the one in the middle! I've got no idea about the QBO, but I've heard the same as you have. I'm definitely not sweating the pattern for November, but seeing the pattern advertised leading up to December just reminds me so much of previous years. hopefully going in to December we see a more ninoish blocking pattern.
 
The QBO, the NAO, the AO, EPO, PNA, SOI.... the WHO, WHY and IDK, if something can it will find a way to screw this up. I've got tempered expectations and honestly give me a shot of tracking something near Christmas, a couple of decent winter weather events and no extended blow torch temps before May and I'll be happy.
 
SnowNiner said:
Always worried about something because it's always something that screws up the perfect season. The advertised -NAO in mid November seems to have melted away in the long range. Looks much like the last 3 winters. Some western ridging, +AO/-EPO/+NAO with a side of west atlantic ridging. Persistence. Still going with that as my winter forecast until it stops doing it.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_51.png
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Yeah, we may want to only consider +NAO analogs as it appears we are in the darkest depths with +NAO and no end in sight. The trop PV looks like it's setting up shop right over the pole.
 
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SoutheastRidge said:
Lol a high of 54 with frozen mix. Good luck with that !
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Years ago we scored several inches of snow with temps around 40. As long as 850’s cooperate and rates are impressive then it’s not out of the question. However, it’s not likely.
 
It’s only November 5th. I won’t be worried about anything until Jan 1st. I warm November isn’t always a bad sign or even a warm December I think.
 
I wish I wouldn’t have logged in this morning. The sky is falling. You guys are depressing!
 
It's a ring of fire on the EPS. I won't be worried until we get into January and it's showing this. I do expect December to be conus warmth with us maybe neutral temps. A repeat of 14/15 would be a great winter and Dec 2014 was a blowtorch.

14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 360 (7).png
 
This is looking to be one of the best setups in years so cheer up a bit we don’t cancel winter until the last second this year.
 
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