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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

SimeonNC said:
Get ready to experience the best and worst of the CLT microclimate my friend :p
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I'm preparing myself for Charlotte to end up near the rain-snow line in at least one big dog this winter, and I'm not saying this purely out of respect for climatology alone. El Nino winters like the one we're entering are very notorious for ramping up the climatological snowfall gradients over the piedmont of NC (even more so than normal) and climatologically favored areas of the northwestern piedmont and mountains tend to get slammed, it's often a game of inches near the US HWY 1 corridor. You won't find a much better example of this in the historical record than the strong El Nino winter of 1930-31.

Winter of 1930-31 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm preparing myself for Charlotte to end up near the rain-snow line in at least one big dog this winter, and I'm not saying this purely out of respect for climatology alone. El Nino winters like the one we're entering are very notorious for ramping up the climatological snowfall gradients over the piedmont of NC (even more so than normal) and climatologically favored areas of the northwestern piedmont and mountains tend to get slammed, it's often a game of inches near the US HWY 1 corridor. You won't find a much better example of this in the historical record than the strong El Nino winter of 1930-31.

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Yeah, even in non-Ninos there can be large gradients. Back during the storm of Jan 17 my area was sleet for most of that storm, while my friend who lives just twenty minutes away near Cornelius stayed all snow and ended up with around 7 inches.
 
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Bham 99 said:
I just moved to charlotte last Spring. What kind of microclimates are here?
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As Eric pointed out, the Charlotte area can be and is often near or on the rain/snow/mix line during winter events. It can basically come down to what neighborhood are you in. Basically the rule is if you are in the northern suburbs up to Statesville you will receive more snow, the more south you are the more likely it is you will receive only a mix or even just rain.
 
SimeonNC said:
As Eric pointed out, the Charlotte area can be and is often near or on the rain/snow/mix line during winter events. It can basically come down to what neighborhood are you in. Basically the rule is if you are in the northern suburbs up to Statesville you will receive more snow, the more south you are the more likely it is you will receive only a mix or even just rain.
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You are absolutely correct. I have lived in western NC for more than 50 years and most big winter storms have a rain/snow line somewhere near I-85. From Atlanta through the Greenville SC area and northeast to Charlotte and up towards Raleigh Durham. That's the climatologically favored line. It's due, in part, to how the cold air dams in here east of the mountains even at the 850mb level. Another factor is the storm track. The temperature gradient we have at the coast during winter, favors at track along the the thermal gradient. Last, is the strength and temperature of the cold air mass you have to work with. A very cold arctic air mass could push that rain/snow line well to the south, even though you have an identical storm-track. It's one of the biggest challenges that face winter forecasters in North Ga, Upstate SC, and the Piedmont of NC with each winter event. Where is that line going to set up? However, if you go with climo, you will be right more times than you are wrong.
 
Kylo said:
Cohen winter model forecast. This would suck. 07 was similar temp gradient.

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Tarheel1 said:
Isn’t he the Eurasia October snowcover guru! If his model works as good as his snowcover theory, we toss his forecast!? He needs JB’s pioneer model, that’s never wrong!:mad:
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ForsythSnow said:
Yeah he literally lists on his website that his forecasts are derived from the snow over theory over Eurasia. More than likely he will bust in my opinion.
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And as long as I have been on the weather forums, I don't think I have seen his winter forecasts ever end up being right.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm preparing myself for Charlotte to end up near the rain-snow line in at least one big dog this winter, and I'm not saying this purely out of respect for climatology alone. El Nino winters like the one we're entering are very notorious for ramping up the climatological snowfall gradients over the piedmont of NC (even more so than normal) and climatologically favored areas of the northwestern piedmont and mountains tend to get slammed, it's often a game of inches near the US HWY 1 corridor. You won't find a much better example of this in the historical record than the strong El Nino winter of 1930-31.

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And we know Wake County will be right on the line of epic snow or cold rain.
 
SimeonNC said:
As Eric pointed out, the Charlotte area can be and is often near or on the rain/snow/mix line during winter events. It can basically come down to what neighborhood are you in. Basically the rule is if you are in the northern suburbs up to Statesville you will receive more snow, the more south you are the more likely it is you will receive only a mix or even just rain.
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That's certainly true. As a long time Charlottean I-85 is your line. If you're north of it, you have a better chance of being in the frozen. If you're south, you're mostly rain or sleet. If you want all snow south of 85, look for the 850s to be around Columbia SC. I have no idea why that is or what causes it, only that the boundary layer thermals ALWAYS line up +/- around I-85. I lived in the Mountain Island lake area north west of Charlotte for many years and I benefited from being north of the interstate...but 10 minutes north of me in Huntersville, Cornelius, and Denver always got 150% at least of what I did. I've recently moved to Mooresville, north of Charlotte, so I'm sure I screwed it all up and this year the boundary layers will park on HWY 150!

On the plus side, Charlotte gets in on everything. It's right in the middle of the Carolinas geographically so the location of the storm, on the coast, a bit inland, a bit off shore doesn't make much of a difference of getting something frozen...usually. However you're just always sweating the boundary layers. 850s are good to know you're in the game. But at game time, ALWAYS, ALWAYS look at 900 boundary layer and surface temps when expecting a storm. You'll know what you're going to get from that (HRRR/RGEM). The Miller B's we've been getting the last few years, just expect some snow with a sleet fest. Unless it's a nice coastal Miller A, or at least a hybrid, CLT usually doesn't get all snow IMO.
 
87 had a nice gradient for snowfall. Wake in the 5-10” range and 30 miles west is the 20-30” range. Was in GSO at the time and I swear we didn’t go to school for a month, think we had 30”.

Though I wouldn’t complain about a 87 repeat for Raleigh, 5-10” would be great.

A8BDD689-A671-4851-811D-993E60916680.png
 
Kylo said:
87 had a nice gradient for snowfall. Wake in the 5-10” range and 30 miles west is the 20-30” range. Was in GSO at the time and I swear we didn’t go to school for a month, think we had 30”.

Though I wouldn’t complain about a 87 repeat for Raleigh, 5-10” would be great.

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Anything less than 6 inches is a disappointment.
 
Just a preview of things to come from December through February.
 
Tarheel1 said:
View attachment 7065 WTF?? He’d still be calling for rain, if temps were in the teens! SMDH
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This setup would be a lock for heavy rain to light rain to backend zr..but seriously this setup would favor an ice storm in January imo. It would find a way to bomb out and send 850’s above freezing while the mountains get crushed
 
Other than Judah Cohen being wrong the last few winters with his largely Oct Siberian snowcover based winter AO forecasts as well most here never wanting a mild winter, can anyone think of any other reason his mild winter 2018-9 forecast is being tossed other than a cold Pioneer model forecast? Keep in mind El Nino is looking a good bit stronger vs how the weak that was earlier favored by many. (OHC is over +1.60 now and still rising.) Even a strong El Nino can no longer be dismissed as a reasonable possibility. And don't forget we've been in a warming world.
 
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