I’ll still take our chances with a strong Niño, we can score a good ice event or two, than that dumpster fire Nina we had last winter! Just the sheer amount of clouds and precip from the STJ, should argue for some BN months at some point this winter or right around normal, even without a lot of frigid cold getting down here!
From experience, im personally not the biggest fan of the MRCC maps for anything more than getting a very basic firsthand look at the regional, multi-state snow behavior because they’re excessively smoothed and a lot of the data that’s put into them hasn’t been quality controlled. More than half of Wake Co was actually well over 10” that winter, one event in mid February dropped 8” of sleet on northern Wake by itself and there was an extremely huge drop off to about 2” once you got to Smithfield. The amounts and their distribution aren’t all that dissimilar from 1930-31 although I think 1930-31 has the upper hand for total statewide snowfall
Because he isn't a weenie and doesn't call for biblical snowfall everytime the models show a fantasy snowstorm.
We don’t have enough time imo to get a strong El Niño at least this year anyway (if we somehow did it would take several weeks for the atmosphere to catch up and by then may be too little too late) and while I wouldn’t discount his forecast entirely it looks very similar to a pure AO/NAO correlation and what the US temps look like after December in strong Niños with a formidable polar vortex. Interannual variability seems to suggest even if the vortex becomes strong, given the prominence of North Pacific/Alaska blocking we may be cold again anyway in spite of it especially as we get into February (as you would normally expect in an El Niño). I personally would forecast 1-2F below average temps in the SE US given all of the above, warming background climate, and a heightened threat of one out of the next 4-5 months (most likely December if anything) being very warm. Every winter the last 3 years has had at least one month that was close to or record breaking warm on or between December and March. I think our chances of ending that streak are decent this year but this should be lurking in the back of everyone’s mind.
He sucks at forecasting snow,and never says it will snow, until it’s falling, others can verify.
He said minimal impacts from wind or rain. All the trees down and 10’s of thousands around CLT, who lost power,would disagree with his “ minimal impacts”!
This
Im glad I'm not the only person at least concerned about December being warm
He easily dismisses the model out-puts even within 24 hours. It has become his trademark. His snowfall estimates always fall way short and then he plays catch-up on every storm. I would rather watch Eric Thomas any day of the week.
interesting... official gust in CLT was 46mph. and many in suburbs had 50+.... Brad said on twitter 30-35 max... Doesn't realy seem too accurate to me, but then again maybe you consider 20mph off as accurate? then if so yeah he nailed it.
Ok thanks for the info.
