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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

UK Seasonal. I don't recall a UK seasonal run being this BN for winter months. Will go check 13/14 and 14/15.

2cat_20181001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png

2cat_20181001_temp2m_months46_global_deter_public.png
 
Kylo said:
UK Seasonal. I don't recall a UK seasonal run being this BN for winter months. Will go check 13/14 and 14/15.

2cat_20181001_temp2m_months35_global_deter_public.png

2cat_20181001_temp2m_months46_global_deter_public.png
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So, that DJF forecast is essentially 1-2 F colder than normal, which is other than that area south of S America the coldest area on the entire globe! Definitely encouraging but I’d like to know their track record. Does anyone have a link to past years’ DJF forecasts?
 
Can't show it yet but both the 51 member ensemble mean EURO and CPC latest run show Oct/Nov/Dec as being well above normal for the SE
 
MichaelJ said:
Can't show it yet but both the 51 member ensemble mean EURO and CPC latest run show Oct/Nov/Dec as being well above normal for the SE
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I have the latest Euro monthlies and Nov is AN for SE. Dec-Feb are solidly BN.

What is CPC? CFSv2?
 
Kylo said:
I have the latest Euro monthlies and Nov is AN for SE. Dec-Feb are solidly BN.

What is CPC? CFSv2?
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They both are NOAA products with the CFS-V2 being the monthly prediction (which runs every day) and the CPC seasonal model which is a seasonal prediction model which runs once a month around mid month. It uses a percentage bases for the upcoming season and you often see it depicted as an above, below, or equal chance of colder or warmer than normal. I show it here:

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Cohen not enthused about the snow cover extent. Seems like past few winters we have had expansive snow cover where he wants and haven't seen the blocking. Hopefully we can get some blocking this winter even with low SAI/SCE.

 
Kylo said:
Cohen not enthused about the snow cover extent. Seems like past few winters we have had expansive snow cover where he wants and haven't seen the blocking. Hopefully we can get some blocking this winter even with low SAI/SCE.

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Yeah we’re gonna be fighting an unfavorable long term base state (warming climate, whether it’s natural or anthropogenically caused) that’s shifting us towards more frequent +NAOs which are being reinforced by the big blocking highs over the North Pacific whose WAFz or “energy” propagates downward into the troposphere over Greenland/E Canada, creating that proverbial Aleutian-Icelandic Low seesaw. The weak El Niño we have coming this winter will interfere with this long term trend and try to force -NAOs as the Aleutian Low and Pacific jet intensify and extend equatorward over the longitudes of active convection in the central tropical Pacific. EQBO to WQBO transition with somewhat low solar and El Niño is a good recipe to trigger a sudden stratospheric warming event this winter, we get a sudden burst of solar between now and then, this may go out the window. I’m excited to see what happens!
 
Accuweather is VERY NE/Mid-Atl biased....I don't take their forecasts for the SE very seriously. Weather.com at least is HQ'd in Atlanta so they put a little more time and effort into our neck of the woods.

That being said, I have a feeling the lower MS valley is going to have a great winter with troughs centered on MS/ARK. Cities like Jackson/Birmingham/Memphis could really score.
 
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LovingGulfLows said:
Accuweather is VERY NE/Mid-Atl biased....I don't take their forecasts for the SE very seriously. Weather.com at least is HQ'd in Atlanta so they put a little more time and effort into our neck of the woods.

That being said, I have a feeling the lower MS valley is going to have a great winter with troughs centered on MS/ARK. Cities like Jackson/Birmingham/Memphis could really score.
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Didn’t BHAM and West GA score a few times last year, east ATL- SC people need some this year, I’m getting tired of .1 to 1in a year when I can drive 45min and see 4-6. Hopefully it’s our turn this year.
 
I though places like southwest Alabama done well last year and I would love to score again, plus my friends to my east. Phil and Larry, this is your year as well.
 
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