I'm sure there are plenty of 'nickle and dime" storms that keeps it from being too divergent from climo snow distribution, usually, at least for down east, those Dec systems are all or nothing with very few if any of the smaller events
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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Round Oak Weather
Member
With this Southeasg Ridge being so strong could this be a sign of winter or just this time of year?
I think it may be related to the very warm subtropical Atlantic. Anyone else think that’s possible?
NoSnowATL
Member
I feel like we are always dealing with the SER. We just have to hope it breaks down for a few weeks on Jan/ Feb.
Here’s the real problem!
Obviously fake news, as you can tell by the page header!
Kylo
Member
Bearing Sea to GOA has ticked up over the past few weeks. Not to dissimilar from 13/14. #blob
Also, epac anomalies have increased.
Also, epac anomalies have increased.
hope y'all are ready, euro will run at 06z and 18z starting october 1st.
packfan98
Moderator
That's interesting. I wonder if it will still be thought of as more consistent than other models with it running 4 runs per day.
Warm oceans, cold continent, my favorite winter prognosticator says!!
Open for business...
MichaelJ
Member
I am becoming more cautiously optimistic we will have a colder than normal winter this year. With the heavy snow so far in Canada, the coming moderate El Nino, the low solar, the warm pool off the NW US coast, and the QBO and low solar combo, to me it is looking like we will have some blocking also finally. Whether I believe the 3-5 degree BN as shown on the Weatherbell forecast or not I am not as optimistic. I could see a 1-2 degree below normal winter which could work out fine for most of us as far as snow
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not bad. I'd take this in a heartbeat.
Looks like the core of the cold anomalies has shifted west from the last run. Is that correct? Still looks good, though.
It looks EPOish, which in my experience, tends to favor Miller Bs and western areas of SC/NC. The precipitation anomalies look great, though. So I don’t know....
It looks EPOish, which in my experience, tends to favor Miller Bs and western areas of SC/NC. The precipitation anomalies look great, though. So I don’t know....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah overall it's still a great look for us, and yes high-latitude North Pacific blocking tends to favor miller type-B and cold air damming events in NC. Even if we had a North Atlantic blocking look which would then lead to more frequent Miller type As/coastal lows, Miller As especially in El Nino winters typically are kinder to the western piedmont and mountains of NC relative to the Triangle, with RDU often being completely screwed over (although Raleigh-Durham can still have above-well above average snowfall for the winter as a whole). The differences between the haves and have nots is often larger in winters like this and areas like Greensboro/Winston-Salem, Roxboro, Statesville, Mt Airy, etc whose snowfall climatology is at least 8-9" (or more) are typically the ones that cash in the most. Obviously this isn't always the case (I can think of a many winters that bucked this trend) but I'm just saying this is what seems to happen the most frequently in NC given an El Nino and active southern storm track. El Nino winters like 1904-05, 1923-24, 1930-31, 1939-40, 1941-42, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1986-87, 2002-03, 2009-10, 2014-15, & 2015-16 are classical examples that featured significantly larger than normal snowfall gradients between the Triangle & Triad even though both cities performed generally well.
Philstorm91
Member
I have a question relating to my difference in geographic location from many posters on this forum. Would Miller A track storms or Miller B track storms generally be more favorable for winter events for the lower MS valley?
Round Oak Weather
Member
Anyone know much about the Meteofrance snow anomaly model? If it’s right it’s gonna be a heck of a winter.
I think you’re in the same boat as us. (Deep digging) Miller A or bust
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
You can also do pretty well with Apps Runners.
Philstorm91
Member
Thanks. Aren't those storms the ones that skirt the northern Gulf coast and then up the Atlantic seaboard? I know it always helps for those storms to be guided by a strong Arctic high.
