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Tropical Tropical Depression Four

12z Gfs now bringing moisture into the southeast this weekend thanks to former Tennessee 4


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Storm5 said:
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Don't know what he is seeing, but all Im seeing is blowup convection greatly enhanced by the big ULL to the NE. No way this will have a shot at developing until you get that beast away.
 
Arcc said:
Don't know what he is seeing, but all Im seeing is blowup convection greatly enhanced by the big ULL to the NE. No way this will have a shot at developing until you get that beast away.
Click to expand...

The EPS isn't giving this a 70 percent chance of development BTW , he is using different methodology to come up with that number


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I guess someone else besides us think its worth a look-see ... :cool:
(Hope this isn't old news, but with the bevy of posts today, not sure ...)


000
NOUS42 KNHC 101530
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 10 JULY 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z JULY 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-040

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04A
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. 11/2100Z
B. AFXXX 0104A INVEST
C. 11/1645Z
D. 23.0N 68.5W
E. 11/2030Z TO 12/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION AT
12/1730Z NEAR 23.5N 72.5W
 
I can see this sysem blowing up off the east coast of Fl before crossing into the gulf. Look at the gfs strengthening the other soon to be storm in that same area.
 
accu35 said:
I can see this sysem blowing up off the east coast of Fl before crossing into the gulf. Look at the gfs strengthening the other soon to be storm in that same area.
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I don't know the waters off the east coast are not boiling . If the old TD 4 does develop it should be a slow process .The Gfs is wrong


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Storm5 said:
I don't know the waters off the east coast are not boiling . If the old TD 4 does develop it should be a slow process .The Gfs is wrong


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Yeah i forget the gfs is playing castaway right now
 
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