Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by stormcentral, May 10, 2018.
Are we still allowed to toss the 18Z GFS (and for that matter the 18Z from new FV3 as well)?
Always for the 18Z run of ANY model on any day. That's one of the biggest benefits of being a southernwx member. I may be mistaken, but I do believe that southernwx is the ONLY wx BB that includes for no charge the option of any member tossing the 18Z anytime that member chooses to do so. I think that's why they proudly have "we toss the 18Z" on one of their tshirts. In case anyone thinks American includes anything like that as part of their membership, think again. They never offered that to me.
Phil, thank goodness you were able to toss the 18Z. The 0Z GFS has totally backed off of an open W Caribbean genesis with a further delay and genesis now further west close to C America. lol Oh GFS, how we love you for W Car TC genesis accuracy....not! lol
The GFS has been crazy in that it had been showing a cat 2 H (bordering on cat 3 in some cases) going into FL on run after run. Also, the progged genesis date has been slipping again. It was originally just 4-5 days from now in the W Caribbean (5/18-19).
So, originally it was a tight genesis 5/18-9 and now on today's 6Z it is only a broad low with genesis on 5/24 with only a much more believable 1000 mb low hitting FL instead of a 970 mb cat 2 H. Is that even the same thing? Even if it is, that's a massive change in strength and timing. And we still don't know if there will be a May W Caribbean TC at all yet.
Thats what fun tracking is for
The euro developed this at 0z by day 10
For the 1st time in many days, the latest GFS (12Z) has no TS+ form in or near the W Caribbean/Central America in its entire run. All it has is a weak low there that at most is a TD and it moves to near FL 5/27-9 as only a weak (1005 mb) low.
CMC, lol. Has something behind this little system
0z gfs back to showing a fantasy hurricane near Florida at 300+ hours
Btw 384 hours is almost June 1
That FV3 - it's nuts ... hopefully ...
18z GFS hurricane for S FL then New Orleans Memorial Day weekend
Well its consistent with something Still seems forever away though
Consistent with inconsistency .. here, then gone, then back ...
Lord I hope we're not living this until October ...
me too Still seems too early for this crap
At 336 hours the storm is all the way in Texas this run is hilarious
Everyone will be better off ignoring the GFS output and focusing more on the Euro and CMC combo for TC genesis. I find when both the euro and cmc agree on a storm developing, consistently, and inside 192 hours it usually has a good chance of forming. GFS and FV3 has major convective feedback issues which continues to gives these outputs not to mention they are not ocean coupled either.
Having said that, the 22-24th seems to be the timeframe to start watching. The German model just came in with some good development indications. The NAVGEM also agrees with this general timeframe.
0z Euro has what appears to be a tropical storm near Tampa at 240 hrs
Memorial Day weekend timeframe again
That intensity would make much more sense for early season
There is now near unanimous agreement in the models that there will be a tropical low forming in the NW Caribbean about 7 days from now or around 5/24. (This compares to those GFS runs on their own around a week ago that were forming it there around 5/18-19 and turning it into an unrealistic for May cat 2 H later hitting FL on many runs.)
From there, the models have it move northward to or near FL around day 10 (near 5/27). Most models bring it to TS strength then though GFS runs have a cat 1 H. I think TS strength would be more realistic in late May. FL is clearly at risk for a TS.
Thanks for the update. Larry!
To add a bit of visual ...
Yeah, the euro and CMC coming on board makes it more likely for a system to form due to agreement. However, seems the FV3 is the worst at the moment, as it has a cat 4 sitting off the coast of LA, which I believe to be next to impossible.
Thanks, Phil. That 6Z FV3 run that @pcbjr just posted has a major (cat 3) H in late May in the N GOM, which isn't even all that warm. I recommend folks ignore this strength as it is so far from realistic.
Lol we were both posting about the crazy 6Z FV3 at about the same time. Yeah, it is nuts!
Didn't mean to suggest an endorsement, but since it's out there ...
I know and it isn't bad to post it so we can later look back at how nutty the model is.
How could the FV3 even be doing that with the N GOM not even all that warm? It doesn't make any sense.
So far, in my most humble opinion, that model hasn't made much sense at all from the day it went public; it's still in an experimental stage and from what I can tell "blends" the GFS into its output, which would explain a lot; that circles back to a discussion a few days ago about its resolution. Bottom line - it's out there and probably worth a look, but it's not what this humble soul is relying on ...
... and the beat goes on ...
... or ...
History since 1851 of W Caribbean/GOM geneses during 5/21-31: 5 trop. storms but no hurricanes
1) 5/30/2008's TS Arthur: strongest 40 knots/1004 mb when it hit Belize 5/31
2) 5/28/1959's TS Arlene: strongest 50 knots/1000 mb when 100 miles S of LA 5/30; hit LA 5/30 with 40 knot max; the only GOM genesis of these 5
3) 5/25/1953's TS Alice: hit W Cuba 5/31 with 50 knot max; strongest 60 knots/997 mb when in NE GOM 6/5; hit FL panhandle 6/6 with 40 knot max
4) 5/27/1890's TS #1: strongest 50 knots in SE Gulf on 5/29; falls aparts in open SE Gulf
5) 5/29/1865's TS #1: strongest 50 knots in SW Caribbean, the only position recorded
In summary, the highest recorded wind max on land of these was a 50 knot hit on W Cuba. The highest on the US/Belize was 40 knots. The highest in any point of the track of these 5 was 60 knots (high end TS). Based on this, IF there is going to be a TC hit anywhere on land, I have to favor no stronger than a TS.
# of W Caribbean/GOM geneses since 1851
May 1-10: 2
May 11-20: 4
May 21-31: 5
June 1-10: 16
June 11-20: 26
Edit: Since this post was made, I've found out about a H that apparently hit FL in late May of 1863 but still isn't in the official records. This one apparently formed within 5/21-31.
Probably, hopefully, not a "namer", but there sure is a bunch of ongoing model consensus for some tropical wet in the mid-term ...
Except the 18Z, which in this case I refuse to toss ...
The FV3 “upgraded” GFS looks far worse so far this season than the one it replaces. In four runs it has gone from a category 4 into Texas, a cat 4 Louisiana hit, a run that doesn’t even develop and now the 18z run where the low heads into the GOM, gets forced west then wsw into the BOC for a landfall in Mexico. This inconsistency, not to mention the absurd intensity it shows on multiple runs, is pitiful.
My greatest concern is during hurricane season when social media posters will plaster images of the FV3 everywhere and cause undue concern. It was bad enough last year with the upgraded gfs, this year will be far worse I’m afraid.
Last year the Euro, CMC and German combo were very reliable for TC genesis and track with the Euro leading the way. I wouldn’t bother looking at the FV3 unless you need a good laugh; it’s clueless and trash for TC intensity and genesis.
Last year the CMC stepped up quite a bit and they euro stepped down, often missing storm formation entirely. I wouldn't put the Euro too high since its not been its best lately. However because everything is agreeing on a strong tropical low, we could see something. The FV3 is going to have to be watched throughout the season just to see how it reacts to different areas of the Atlantic. I'm sure it's going to be bad unless they correct it.