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Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by stormcentral, May 10, 2018.

  1. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    Models have been consistent on areas of tropical development from the carribean or into the gulf of mexico or the straits of florida; Multiple runs of different models showing this tropical system / & potential cyclone that develops around the May 19-25 period. Quite in southeast for now.
     
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  2. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Yeah this has been consistent runs for a while now. Strong signal of something to brew up. May the season began.
     
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  3. whamby

    whamby politicians discussing climate change Member

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    shout out to Gawx... is there any correlation with early tropical development and warm/cool summers, or following winters? This sort of statistical analysis seems right up your alley.
     
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  4. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    @whamby I'll hopefully get back to you when I get more time.

    There have been only 4 TCs on record to form in the W Caribbean since 1851 during 5/11-20 (so about one every 40 years...so not even close to impossible though rare) as per this map with 2 of the 4 hitting FL:

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/may_11_20.png

    One of the 4 was Alma of 1970, which became a cat 1 H in the W Caribbean and later hit FL but only as a TD:
    http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

    The other FL hit was storm 1 of 1916, which hit FL as only a minimal TS:
    http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

    Another of the 4 was TS #1 of 1933, which never got close to the US:
    http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

    The 4th was TS #2 of 1887, which affected Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas, but which missed the US:
    http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

    So, in summary, 1970, 1933, 1916, and 1887 with 1970 hitting FL as a TD and 1916 hitting FL as a minimal TS. This info tells me not to bet the farm against a W Caribbean genesis this mid May, but to bet a whole lot on there not being a H hit on the US from a potential mid May genesis. It is too early in the season to think of that as a reasonable possibility per this climo going back to 1851.
     
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  5. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Looks like the CMC may be slowly drifting towards the GFS and FV3's direction. I looked at the 850mb vort map and saw the overall origin of the low that both models are creating. The GFS takes a spin that originates near or south of Nicaragua and sends it east, developing it into the storm that heads towards the US. However, the CMC takes that same spin, which originates around day 5 or 7 and takes it west into the Pacific, creating a low there. The CMC, however, drifts that low east after a short time into Central America and has the overall flow NE at the end of the run with there still being some spin. Have to watch to see if any other runs do this, as 0Z did this as well.
     
  6. Brent

    Brent Member

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    I dunno what the GFS is smoking but sure let's have a storm for the entire east coast :p
     
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  7. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    I don't think of one every 40 years as too low to consider that a genesis MAY actually happen with every GFS/FV3 run developing it there. However, I also wouldn't bet on it happening as the GFS in recent years has had cases where run after run for many days in a row had a W Caribbean genesis and nothing ended up forming. Also, I believe that the GFS/FV3 is way too strong even if there were to be a genesis. Run after run has had a cat 2 H but there has been only 1 H form from a genesis there in mid May since 1851 and that was only a cat 1 for only 12 hours while still in the W Caribbean with a max of 80 mph!
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2018
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  8. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Right I dont totally disbelieve the idea of something forming but the idea of some full blown hurricane is a little hard to grasp
     
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  9. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Larry,
    As Tony might say ... Here's hoping the abacus is right for our sakes and this :oops: isn't a statistical anomaly ... Not prepared yet this year ... (though actually never am, nor for that matter is anybody, really) ...

    fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh300-330.gif
     
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  10. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Created a link from the general section to this thread for all who want to track the topics on one page.
     
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  11. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Don't worry, Phil. Based on the fact that there has been only 1 TC recorded since way back in 1851 with a 5/11-20 genesis in the W Caribbean that reached H strength and that just for 12 hours peaking at only 80 mph well down in the Caribbean, this 12Z FV3 borderline cat 2/cat 3 that hardly weakens over N FL ain't happening.
     
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  12. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Wasn't/am not worried ... LOL ... just figured it was worth a shout your way for the fun of it ... :eek:
    Actually, I'm real interested in how the models handle now until 7/31; will be a good gauge for the real season ...
    As always, Larry,
    Best!
    Phil

    Edit at 8:50 PM: Larry, I'm now just a tad bit "interested" ...

    fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh330-330.gif
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2018
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  13. Brent

    Brent Member

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    The gfs has lost it :eek:

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Actually, statistics notwithstanding (which I pray win the day), this is a bit disconcerting, being so many runs in a row ... plenty of time for a drastic change for the better, but 2 more days of this and June prep starts in May ... :( In any event, even 14 days or so out, I'm getting just a tad bit "interested"

    2018051018_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_348.gif 2018051018_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_360.gif
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2018
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  15. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    @pcbjr and others: Keep in mind folks how the GFS often way overstrenghtened TCs last season. Example: remember those numerous Irma runs down below 900 mbs? Many of the runs turned out to have Irma 30+ mb too strong. This may be the reason the GFS/FV3 are so ridiculously strong with this new potential. Could it be 30 mb too strong and we instead get something more like 1000 mb when/if it gets to the US, if there's any TC at all? I say yes and climo backs this up.
    Phil, I'd say prepare for the small chance for a TS impact.
     
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  16. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    Sweet mother of glory!
     
  17. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    00Z GFS tropical threat continues...
    gfs_apcpn_eus_52.png gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png
     
  18. Brent

    Brent Member

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    still in the Gulf at the end of the run :rolleyes:
     
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  19. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    Good god...952 MB Landfall 5/26 south Florida. Rakes the keys. Creeping. Then climbs the southeast coast. Outer banks fv3p_mslp_wind_eus_59.png fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_58.png
     
  20. whamby

    whamby politicians discussing climate change Member

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    which model performed best inside 7 days last tropical season? Seems like the GFS was, but constantly strengthened storms too much.
     
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  21. snowlover91

    snowlover91 Member

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    I would not put any weight in the GFS solution being shown. It has consistently been backing up the supposed development and shifted it south too. It typically struggles early in the season as the EPAC starts heating up. None of the other globals like the Euro, CMC or German have anything forming and imo the GFS and FV-3 are both out to lunch on this.
     
  22. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Slight bit of difference, but the dadgum thing keeps showing up in some form or fashion ... like a pesky gnat when trying to eat outside ...

    gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh264-324.gif gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh264-336.gif fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh276-312.gif
     
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  23. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Looks like we got the ICON now too. CMC seems a bit closer as well, but not quite.
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    [​IMG] I know it's the FV3, but is that a 99L? Lol!! 90hrs out
     
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  25. snowlover91

    snowlover91 Member

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    German model has a nice system forming around the same time as the GFS. If we can get the euro to jump on board with development then we might have something.
    upload_2018-5-13_2-9-7.png
     
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  26. J.C.

    J.C. Member

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    [​IMG]
    6z still has it in fantasy land
     
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  27. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    My latest thoughts fwiw:

    1. The GFS/FV3 runs early to mid last week were consistently developing it on or around 5/18-9. That's why I was then analyzing W Car geneses during 5/11-20 instead of during 5/21-31. Now the geneses seem to be centered around 5/20-2.

    2. The only place I've seen GFS phantoms sticking around for a week with no forecast time slippage was, interestingly enough, in the W Car. though that was more later season than early season. That's why I think there is a good side to mentioning TC geneses way out in time. We can look back.

    3. Regarding the GFS runs that have had cat 2+ strength, don't forget that the GFS on numerous runs had Irma near or I think even below 900 mbs in some cases between Cuba and S FL. Those runs turned out to be close to 30 mb too strong.

    4. I continue to think there is a low % as opposed to zero % threat to FL in late May from a W Car genesis though not of the crazy strengths many GFS runs have been showing. I think any FL storm would very likely be no stronger than TS. This takes into account both climo and the tendency of the GFS to overstrengthen last season.
     
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  28. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Good catch as this is a system that already exists to the south and will likely turn out to be a very nice rainmaker for parts of the SE US. This has a decent chance to become a STD or possibly a STS. There is even a chance for it to be one a TD and a slight chance for TS status to be reached though SSTs in the N Gulf are not very warm and may not support a TC.
    To clarify to the readers, this has nothing to do with the GFS/FV3 modeled storm for later.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2018
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  29. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    With that, Larry, I feel comfortable taking a Sunday afternoon nap ... ;)
     
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  30. Rosie

    Rosie Supporter Member

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    I just did!
     
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