Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

[pcbjr]

I quit WxBell - how does the FL panhandle look on JB's NAM map?

 

[NorthBamaWeather]

I quit WxBell - how does the FL panhandle look on JB's NAM map?

Everything is in Bama/Georgia late afternoon

 

[pcbjr]

Everything is in Bama/Georgia late afternoon

Thanks!

 

[Arcc]

Both from 18z NAM showing a very dangerous and rare early to mid morning threat.

VV at 700mb

Sounding from near BHM same time.

 

[Storm5]

Both from 18z NAM showing a very dangerous and rare early to mid morning threat.

VV at 700mb

Sounding from near BHM same time.

Yeah that morning threat is nothing to sleep on for sure


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[Storm5]

I'm not sold on the new 3k NAM it's been pretty crappy as of late


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[NorthBamaWeather]

NAM DP Wednesday late afternoon

 

[RollTide18]

Hopefully it's not as bad as it could be.

I haven't really been paying attention to the accuracy but how accurate is the NAM in regards to Severe Wx?

 

[Arcc]

Hopefully it's not as bad as it could be.

I haven't really been paying attention to the accuracy but how accurate is the NAM in regards to Severe Wx?

Ehh hit or miss. The question in this event is directional shear and who wins that is up to anyone's guess.

 

[pcbjr]

NWS Jax is starting to talk (mostly about west and north of this borough - but still ...)

http://www.weather.gov/jax/

 

[NorthBamaWeather]

GFS is about 4 hours faster than the NAM and EURO is about 2 hours slower than the GFS

 

[Storm5]

GFS is about 4 hours faster than the NAM and EURO is about 2 hours slower than the GFS

Yep gfs implies less of a secondary threat being that fast . Could be correct as the euro isn't that far behind .

NAM is the slowest which raises red flags and because it's the NAM


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[stormcentral]

Both from 18z NAM showing a very dangerous and rare early to mid morning threat.

VV at 700mb

Sounding from near BHM same time.

Scary for the tennessee valley.

 

[Storm5]

Is SPC ever gonna update Day 3


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[ForsythSnow]

Is SPC ever gonna update Day 3


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Tomorrow.

 

[Storm5]

Tomorrow.

Once a damn day?


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[ForsythSnow]

Once a damn day?


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Probably for days 3-8 they keep it once a day. I wouldn't put much stock into days 3-8 anyway on the SPC maps, except for event areas and timing really. Strength of the event should be in better picture by tomorrow evening I feel.

 

[pcbjr]

Once a damn day?


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like my broken clock - except it updates and is right 2X/day .... LOL

 

[skywatcher]

Local mets are saying more rain in the morning with round 1 of storms for the TN Valley would help to stabilize the atmosphere for the afternoon round 2 of storms. But, they are watching forecast guidance slowing the system, possibly allowing for significant instability to develop across the entire state of AL. They are still uncertain, watching and waiting.

 

[Storm5]

Local mets are saying more rain in the morning with round 1 of storms for the TN Valley would help to stabilize the atmosphere for the afternoon round 2 of storms. But, they are watching forecast guidance slowing the system, possibly allowing for significant instability to develop across the entire state of AL. They are still uncertain, watching and waiting.

I'm no met and severe weather isn't really my thing but I don't agree with that at all. Almost all guidance is showing a fairly volatile atmosphere after the morning storms which by the way will be booking it NE . It's not like the models are showing a slow progression with the morning storms . If that were the case I could see the argument that they might stabilize the atmosphere some. But that's not the case


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