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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

Storm5

Storm5

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12z euro goes nuts with cape again . This will be one to watch
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As if we haven't seen enough severe weather in the past few weeks, yet another bout of severe wx will be dealt to the southern tier of the US the middle of next week. A s/w currently off the west coast of British Columbia on the leading edge of a 175+ knot jet streak in the north-central Pacific will dive southeastward into the Great Basin later this weekend and into early next week and emerge from the southern Rockies by Wednesday in the midst of a rapidly amplifying pattern over North America. Once again, this will allow for significant southerly return flow from the Gulf of Mexico to destabilize the atmosphere over a considerable portion in the southern US, and as the pacific jet streak noses into the west coast, favorable, divergent and fairly diffluent flow aloft in the left exit region of this jet streak should augment rapid cyclogenesis in the south-central plains, with this area of low pressure racing into the Lakes. A secondary area of low pressure may attempt to form in the lee of the Apps in the vicinity of the Carolinas and Virginia on Thursday, which could have significant implications on the viability and rigor of the severe weather in this region. Definitely another system worth watching from the southern plains to the Carolinas and south-central Mid-Atlantic states.

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And even though CAPE drops off into Georgia Wednesday night/overnight, the values shown by the Euro verbatim are certainly supportive of a continuing threat of severe after dark Wednesday.
 
Two things from the free maps, large upper level broad based trough and SW 850mb winds in a highly unstable warm sector.

This could be a biggie.
 
Brother I know how hard it is for you to get snow down here. I always lurk and feel bad for you when posters get upset that they may only get an inch or two vs you living in the panhandle wishing you could get anything!
 
tennessee storm said:
really first it showed this...euro has none... see what happens... things dont get in the way down there... finally we could be looking at a high end threat
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Yeah, we all know how the GFS vs. Euro battle usually plays out. And FWIW, the GFS looks way too fast compared with the ensembles, NAM, UKIE, and Euro. The Canadian is also fast but when it and the GFS are alone in a camp..its awfully tough to trust it
 
Still timing differences with this threat . The gfs is much faster swinging the trough through especially for Mississippi and Alabama ,that would really limit instability values and really make it tough for things to get going . The euro is much slower and really cranks up the instability setting up a very dangerous afternoon . I would lean with the euro at this point given the gfs and it's tendency to eject troughs so freaking fast .


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It'll be interesting to see how quickly the warm front can charge northward with this one. A deepening cyclone to the northwest of the region should pull the front northward fairly quickly but convection and rain along and north of the warm front may hold it farther south than models suggest. Overall though this one looks like it could be fairly significant with near 70 degree dewpoints charging northward and plenty of dynamics and shear.
 
Fwiw, the WPC is preferring a NAM/Euro blend with this system, discounting the GFS due to its fast bias
 
^ not necessarily. The NAM, particularly at this range, is known to poorly handle how waves eject. A faster solution is less plausible given the orientation of the trough on the past couple GFS runs. That being said the fact that the NAM and GFS are in the same camp lends credence to believe that their solution can't be discounted.
 
All good! Days and dates usually don't get etched into your memory unless you "were there". This map is a composite of all the warnings issued that day. I work/live about where the aqua asterisk is. It was an incredible day - most of the power in North AL was out for at least 5 days. I must admit, after a day and a half with no power, we loaded up the cats and headed to Orange Beach.
 
Man, April 27th.. I will never ever forget that. I was awakened at about 2:00 in the morning by my grandfather calling to tell me that a tornado was headed right for me. I got my family up and we went into the crawl space, I was watching the radar on my phone while we were down there. Things seemed to clear about 30 minutes after we got in the crawl space and we went back inside. Then it started to get VERY intense, I looked at the radar and a hook echo had formed and was sitting right on top of us. To this day that was the most intense storm I have been in and it actually is the reason I now have a phobia of strong storms. The tornado passed about 1.5 to 2 miles south of us, it was borderline EF2/3 when it did, it was a 3 for sure to our west and weakened to a 2 somewhere around us, I'm not sure what it was officially when it crossed our street. The next morning I went to work and passed the area of I-75 where it crossed and I have never seen destruction like that. Every tree for a path about .4 miles wide was gone, the interstate was completely covered in trees and tree pieces. It was horrible. There was also a little girl down the road from me who lost her life by being pulled out of the bed in the middle of the night. Since then I have been very conscious of the weather, I honestly didn't even know it was supposed to rain that night.
 
It wasn't really a comparison - apologies if it seemed that way. Please remove my posts or put them in Banter where they belong.
 
skywatcher said:
It wasn't really a comparison - apologies if it seemed that way. Please remove my posts or put them in Banter where they belong.
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No I wasn't specifically talking about you. I've seen idiots on twitter and other places bringing up the comparison which is foolish at the point. Sorry I was just venting


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Storm5 said:
No I wasn't specifically talking about you. I've seen idiots on twitter and other places bringing up the comparison which is foolish at the point. Sorry I was just venting


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;)
 
Storm5 said:
No I wasn't specifically talking about you. I've seen idiots on twitter and other places bringing up the comparison which is foolish at the point. Sorry I was just venting


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really banter but it belongs right here --- what a truly crystal clear snapshot of why this place is so great ... :D

as opposed to

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for those who get the drift ....
 
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Storm5 said:
There is no reason to compare this to April 27 th at this point. The fact that this threat falls on a Wednesday means nothing


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I wasn't trying to make that comparison. I was just relaying my experience that day.
 
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