Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

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NHC has raised its odds of genesis to 30% the next 5 days, while wind shear remains low (5-10 KTS), sea surface temperatures are sufficient, and 92L continues to produce somewhat regular moderate-deep pulse convection, the main hinderance to genesis will be its merger with an upper level low that dove southward into the Bahamas the past day or two. 92L's coupling with this feature will make development difficult-very difficult at least for the next 3 days or so because 92L will now have to spend time and energy eroding the mid-upper level cold core of this ULL and contend with the dry/sinking air accompanying it with relative humidities around 30-40%... Development, if any will be slow to occur and doesn't appear likely until it merges with the tail end of a frontal boundary that will stall off the southeastern US coast late this week. Thereafter the steering flow yet again looks like it could direct this right out to sea as transients will keep diving into the eastern and central US, underneath a persistent high latitude blocking ridge over northern North America... Doesn't seem all too dissimilar from Gert.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
NHC has raised its odds of genesis to 30% the next 5 days, while wind shear remains low (5-10 KTS), sea surface temperatures are sufficient, and 92L continues to produce somewhat regular moderate-deep pulse convection, the main hinderance to genesis will be its merger with an upper level low that dove southward into the Bahamas the past day or two. 92L's coupling with this feature will make development difficult-very difficult at least for the next 3 days or so because 92L will now have to spend time and energy eroding the mid-upper level cold core of this ULL and contend with the dry/sinking air accompanying it with relative humidities around 30-40%... Development, if any will be slow to occur and doesn't appear likely until it merges with the tail end of a frontal boundary that will stall off the southeastern US coast late this week. Thereafter the steering flow yet again looks like it could direct this right out to sea as transients will keep diving into the eastern and central US, underneath a persistent high latitude blocking ridge over northern North America... Doesn't seem all too dissimilar from Gert.
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Looking at the Euro, it develops a weak system once it is pushed out while the CMC seems a bit fast and develops it stronger, but the same path as the Euro.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
NHC has raised its odds of genesis to 30% the next 5 days, while wind shear remains low (5-10 KTS), sea surface temperatures are sufficient, and 92L continues to produce somewhat regular moderate-deep pulse convection, the main hinderance to genesis will be its merger with an upper level low that dove southward into the Bahamas the past day or two. 92L's coupling with this feature will make development difficult-very difficult at least for the next 3 days or so because 92L will now have to spend time and energy eroding the mid-upper level cold core of this ULL and contend with the dry/sinking air accompanying it with relative humidities around 30-40%... Development, if any will be slow to occur and doesn't appear likely until it merges with the tail end of a frontal boundary that will stall off the southeastern US coast late this week. Thereafter the steering flow yet again looks like it could direct this right out to sea as transients will keep diving into the eastern and central US, underneath a persistent high latitude blocking ridge over northern North America... Doesn't seem all too dissimilar from Gert.
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Agreed. The euro says any second system is the one to watch

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Not sure if this will be the frankenstein of 92l or what but the potential low forming off of the SE coast this weekend is becoming more interesting with the potential for a trough to dig into the central US and allow a more west track. I am actually intrigued that this can at least bring some rain into the carolinas if it can start interacting with a trough similar to the cmc/euro

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There is some EPS support for he idea that you mentioned of a low running closer to the coast
ce390eda7448697e18d1430ef29601cf.png



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SD said:
Not sure if this will be the frankenstein of 92l or what but the potential low forming off of the SE coast this weekend is becoming more interesting with the potential for a trough to dig into the central US and allow a more west track. I am actually intrigued that this can at least bring some rain into the carolinas if it can start interacting with a trough similar to the cmc/euro

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Click to expand...
Keyword for me: Subsidence !
:(
 
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