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Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

000
ABNT20 KNHC 242319
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Harvey, located over the western Gulf of Mexico.

A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
southern and central Florida and the adjacent waters. Although
strong upper-level winds should limit tropical cyclone formation,
some subtropical development is possible over the weekend or early
next week while the system moves northeastward over the western
Atlantic before it merges with a front. Regardless of development,
very heavy rain and flooding is possible mainly over portions of
southern and central Florida during the next few days. Please refer
to products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
 
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_18.png

ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_5.png

Lol crazy uncle....
gem_mslp_wind_seus_16.png

nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png
 
pcbjr said:
... and then, let's please pray this is it for the year ... :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
I'd like to say yes but the pattern in early September is ideal for a CV system to make a run at the east coast

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
I'd like to say yes but the pattern in early September is ideal for a CV system to make a run at the east coast

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I know ... I said "pray" - hell, until October 30th, there's always a shot ... :mad:
Too many folks hurt last year and this ... o_O
Time for a chill ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
I know ... I said "pray" - hell, until October 30th, there's always a shot ... :mad:
Too many folks hurt last year and this ... o_O
Time for a chill ... ;)
Click to expand...
Yep I just want some rain no need for a hurricane

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GFS a little more east than it's 6z run but tries to develop this system.... just a little tug westward and SD gets his rain
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_12.png
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 261748
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Harvey, located inland over eastern Texas.

An elongated area of low pressure stretching across north-central
Florida continues to produce a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from the southwest coast of
Florida northeastward into the western Atlantic. Although
upper-level winds are not particularly conducive, this system has
the potential to become a tropical or subtropical depression
early next week after it moves off the northeast coast of Florida
on Sunday. The low is forecast to move close to the southeastern
coast of the United States and merge with a cold front by mid-week.
Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the low is expected to
cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas through early next week. Heavy rain is also
expected to continue over portions of southern and central Florida
during the next day or two. Please refer to products from your local
National Weather Service forecast office for more information on
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Recon is going to investigate Invest 92L tomorrow.


000
NOUS42 KNHC 261615
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT SAT 26 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-087

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/1130Z,1730Z
B AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 27/1630Z C. 28/0930Z
D. 31.0N 81.0W D. 32.0N 80.5W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2230Z E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: ALL REMAINING TASKED REQUIREMENTS FOR HURRICANE HARVEY
CANCELED BY NHC AT 26/0310Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF
 
An elongated area of low pressure stretching across north-central
Florida continues to produce a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from the southwest coast of
Florida northeastward into the western Atlantic. Although
upper-level winds are not particularly conducive, this system has
the potential to become a tropical or subtropical depression
early next week after it moves off the northeast coast of Florida
on Sunday. The low is forecast to move close to the southeastern
coast of the United States and merge with a cold front by mid-week.
Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the low is expected to
cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas through early next week. Heavy rain is also
expected to continue over portions of the Florida peninsula during
the next day or two. Please refer to products from your local
National Weather Service forecast office for more information on
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
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