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Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

This already looks like a TD although nothing is for certain. This continues to be the one current system that needs to be monitored most closely for potential effects on the CONUS around the middle to end of next week based on model consensus, IF it ever amounts to anything and doesn't subsequently dissipate over open water. The chance of this recurving east of the US is very low due to too much and too stable a high pressure still being progged just off the SE US. The model consensus is further south than a couple of days ago with a track south of FL and then itno the GOM currently favored IF it survives.
 
HWRF has a hurricane into Cuba. Is weak most of the run then blows up in the final day.

Also code RED

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands have
changed little in organization during the past several hours.
However, only a slight increase in the organization of the shower
activity could lead to the formation of a tropical depression during
the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less
favorable for development early next week. The low is expected
to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few
days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
Should be noted the GFS ensembles are much more bullish and very near Florida at day 7, definitely some hurricane members, and a couple are significant hurricanes

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^We all need to make sure Phil does NOT see this 18Z GEFS map!

By the way, I count 5 of those 20 members as solid hurricanes fwiw. Compare that to earlier GEFS: 2 on the 12Z, 1 on the 6Z, and 3 on the 0Z. Just about all of these have impact on FL and most then move up into other parts of the SE US. These members suggest that any possible major effects on FL would most likely be during the latter half of next week and then extend into the subsequent weekend further north. Get plenty of rest, folks, as you MAY need reserve for tracking this next week.
 
GaWx said:
^We all need to make sure Phil does NOT see this 18Z GEFS map!

By the way, I count 5 of those 20 members as solid hurricanes fwiw. Compare that to earlier GEFS: 2 on the 12Z, 1 on the 6Z GEFS, and 3 on the 0Z. Just about all of these have impact on FL and most then move up into other parts of the SE US. These members suggest that any possible major effects on FL would most likely be during the latter half of next week and then extend into the subsequent weekend further north. Get plenty of rest, folks, as you MAY need reserve for tracking this next week.
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Lol yeah I saw those maps. IF this forms, it's headed for Florida or the Gulf. I don't think that there is any other way it could go (except to shreds if it doesn't form). We got Harvey today and I think we will have PTC 10, TD 10, or Irma by this time tomorrow. This is "That system" that we don't exactly want. The top analog (yes analog FWIW), is showing Frederic from 1979 and that was a cat 4 hitting the US. IF it forms, sleepless nights for many are ahead indeed. Now let's all hope the Euro is right.
 
Yeah, i'd say 92L looks like a tropical depression atm. Moderate-deep, consolidated, pulsating convection w/ westerlies on the south side confirmed by NOAA buoy 41041 (14N/46W) earlier this afternoon & given that organization has been improving since, this probably warrants classification...
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I'm expecting to have an advisory in the morning unless something drastic changes overnight

Just wait for the hype when the 5 day cone points at the Gulf /sarcasm

oh and next Thursday is the 25th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew as if that will help(it'll probably be close to Florida then)
 
Brent said:
I'm expecting to have an advisory in the morning unless something drastic changes overnight

Just wait for the hype when the 5 day cone points at the Gulf /sarcasm

oh and next Thursday is the 25th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew as if that will help(it'll probably be close to Florida then)
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Oh, and what about all the "we are almost at speed of 2005" and it's an "I" storm? Lots of hype and skewed info from hypists may come. I also expect Irma or TD by tomorrow.
 
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