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Pattern October Oscitance

Oh man if this was December or January

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Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
It their a possibility it could bring a miracle to the southeast? Most likely it won’t but is their a possibility.
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It's virtually 0 even with the most amazing pattern and extreme extratropical cyclone, severe weather/tornadoes may actually become a bigger concern with a beastly storm like this rather than any inkling of hope for winter weather
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's virtually 0 even with the most amazing pattern and extreme extratropical cyclone, severe weather/tornadoes may actually become a bigger concern with a beastly storm like this rather than any inkling of hope for winter weather
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Eric did you see the FV3 GFS at 0z showing ice storm into Carolinas with strong CAD? What you think about this or anybody ?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Eric did you see the FV3 GFS at 0z showing ice storm into Carolinas with strong CAD? What you think about this or anybody ?
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It's long range eye candy for now in terms of specifics, but the signal for a huge storm somewhere in the eastern half of the US is there near the end of October. Tbh, that's the earliest I've ever seen a fantasy land winter CAD event in NC on any model
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's long range eye candy for now in terms of specifics, but the signal for a huge storm somewhere in the eastern half of the US is there near the end of October. Tbh, that's the earliest I've ever seen a fantasy land winter CAD event in NC on any model
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It's certainly the earliest SE winter storm I've seen from any model. I don't buy it for one second because it's out in fantasy land however. Just fun to look at. More than likely the system will be warmer than what the FV3 has.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's certainly the earliest SE winter storm I've seen from any model. I don't buy it for one second because it's out in fantasy land however. Just fun to look at. More than likely the system will be warmer than what the FV3 has.
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Yep. On the 16th of Oct we have our first fantasy storm ... Nothing like a new goofus to look at.


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After a certain point, the FV3s have been quite frigid lately (I know as I've been watching those temps). I think that was the first time it was winter weather frigid in some points of the southeast though late in the run.
 
From earlier research, I believe a strong extratropical storm moving up just offshore the eastern seaboard in/near late Oct is more likely in El Nino years than non-El Nino years. On top of that, the very warm SSTs would add support.
 
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Man, gfs has been going crazy on this end of month pattern flip. Everything looks cold and some slight mischief showing up to. All I know is, get ready to break out sweat shirts soon
 
accu35 said:
Man, gfs has been going crazy on this end of month pattern flip. Everything looks cold and some slight mischief showing up to. All I know is, get ready to break out sweat shirts soon
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Other than 1977, which this year is most certainly not anything like, how about let's take a pass on "cold and some slight mischief" until say a week after Thanksgiving?
 
pcbjr said:
Other than 1977, which this year is most certainly not anything like, how about let's take a pass on "cold and some slight mischief" until say a week after Thanksgiving?
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Sounds good to me;)
 
we're on pace to pass our wettest year ever set just back in 2015... literally the yard is like a lake and today its just been light rain. I came home last night to an overflowing rain gauge.

I just hope this winter is better than that one :confused:
 
Brent said:
we're on pace to pass our wettest year ever set just back in 2015... literally the yard is like a lake and today its just been light rain. I came home last night to an overflowing rain gauge.

I just hope this winter is better than that one :confused:
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Hopefully you'll get more in the way of snow/ice than just wet stuff, just not too much of a good thing!
 
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