If more issues than rain, this could be worst than Dorian in the Midlands of SC.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto
- Thread starter GeorgiaGirl
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
It depends on how long it has over water....as Phil says, can't really tell until or if it spins up. But we are T-2, so that's not a lot of time.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yes it's the first HWRF run, but this is what I want to see. Yes I want rain badly.
NE MOVEMENT ANYONE????
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That's just some showers at the moment. The supposed circulation is somewhere in the middle of all that. It's still very disorganized.
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
Downeastnc
Member
The real question is what happens IF it ends up east of Florida, does it sit and spin and wait to get kicked out or does it run N or NNW and hit GA up to NC.....
That scenario also adds a wind/surge component to the mix.....even a strong TS or weak cane sitting off the coast for a few days will pile the water up to the north of the center even if it is well offshore .....Hurricane Dennis stalled offshore of NC a good ways weakened to a TS then slowly drifted ashore but the long fetch of TS force winds helped to make him a top 5 surge event for the Pamlico River basin.
That scenario also adds a wind/surge component to the mix.....even a strong TS or weak cane sitting off the coast for a few days will pile the water up to the north of the center even if it is well offshore .....Hurricane Dennis stalled offshore of NC a good ways weakened to a TS then slowly drifted ashore but the long fetch of TS force winds helped to make him a top 5 surge event for the Pamlico River basin.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I thought I saw a very broad circulation earlier today but I might've been seeing things, I just had it up for about a minute and couldn't locate one.
But anyway my motive is weak TS/TD to potentially see rain relief though...
But anyway my motive is weak TS/TD to potentially see rain relief though...
THATS WHERE I SEE SOME BROAD CIRCULATION. CAN ANYONE SEE ANYTHING DIFFERENT?? IF SO PLEASE POINT IT OUT.. THESE DISORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PINPOINT THE "CENTER"
Right now the Gulf solution is the most practical. East of Florida solution is possible but ATM it’s wish casting.
There’s been still another significant NE shift of tracks on the 18Z Euro ensemble. Now the mean track is just inland of the FL E coast moving NNW. The mean strength is also significantly stronger than prior runs. Individual members are split between many that go NNW/N over the FL peninsula/GA and now a good number of others offshore in the Atlantic (some later hit Carolinas while others never make landfall). Mean rainfall for the 51 members maxes at a whopping 3-4” over NE FL/far SE GA.
That's possible but bigger key will be to see if that area of convection firing to the east can persist overnight if so any center would likely be relocated into that region
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Henry2326
Member
Look up a couple of posts to the tweet I posted. He identified the same spot as you.
I don't know how it's wishcasting when there are plenty of ensembles/models showing some variation of that idea. Wishcasting would be saying the ridge is going to be stronger and the storm is going to Houston
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ATM is the key word. Until I see a large shift or even more gradual shifts, and the majority of Globals and or mesoscale models are in good agreement I’m not going out and saying east coast watch. While we are trending in that direction majority of data in in the Gulf. We will just have to wait and see. Wish casting probably wasn’t he best word to use, however I’m not buying the EC data just yet.
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
Heck I don't buy any of it yet....T-2....have no clue until T-2.
Stormsfury
Member
Right now, gauging where a dominant circulation in this near term will set up is the biggest key right now.