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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

Hence what I was saying before. These systems tend to get sneaky strong. This ridge looks a bit stronger and holding longer. No matter where it goes there is a good chance of landfall across the SE states IMO at this moment.
 
This morning Levi said it was or will be east tilted with the convection..and he believes the models will show the storm slowing down. Slower movement will likely mean a different track than what models have been showing over the last several runs.
 
GaWx said:
There’s been still another significant NE shift of tracks on the 18Z Euro ensemble. Now the mean track is just inland of the FL E coast moving NNW. The mean strength is also significantly stronger than prior runs. Individual members are split between many that go NNW/N over the FL peninsula/GA and now a good number of others offshore in the Atlantic (some later hit Carolinas while others never make landfall). Mean rainfall for the 51 members maxes at a whopping 3-4” over NE FL/far SE GA.
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The east of Florida track would be crazy especially if it made it to cane status and tracked right on the coast or actually landfall's somewhere.......then what a week or so later we would have yet another system potentially impacting.....the thing is that at this point ANY system close to or on the SE coast will be salt in the wound especially if it somehow makes it up to the OBX, the southern islands are a huge mess and another storm next week would immediately render all progress made up till then moot.
 
Appears this won’t really be stronger than Cat 1? I know it’s early to tell intensity forecasts but this won’t have enough time over water really to ramp up to major I’d reckon. Also, I’d love for a nice solid tropical storm to plow through the southeast bringing some much needed rain. Specifically piedmont of N.C./SC /GA . Eastern NC should be fine , farmers don’t need any more rain I reckon or that’s more crop damage after Dorian . Unless it’s moderate amount ( less than 4 inches spread out over 2-3 days).
 
Downeastnc said:
The east of Florida track would be crazy especially if it made it to cane status and tracked right on the coast or actually landfall's somewhere.......then what a week or so later we would have yet another system potentially impacting.....the thing is that at this point ANY system close to or on the SE coast will be salt in the wound especially if it somehow makes it up to the OBX, the southern islands are a huge mess and another storm next week would immediately render all progress made up till then moot.
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As it is, the strength increased quite a bit from the prior run, which had mainly TD to minimal TS. Now a good number are solid TS. Moreover, there are now several members at minimal H strength offshore the SE coast with the strongest one hitting Mrytle Beach area at what may be close to cat 2!
 
GaWx said:
As it is, the strength increased quite a bit from the prior run, which had mainly TD to minimal TS. Now a good number are solid TS. Moreover, there are now several members at minimal H strength offshore the SE coast with the strongest one hitting Mrytle Beach area at what may be close to cat 2!
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As always it will come down to timing.
 
accu35 said:
I just want rain
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Be careful what you wish for , would be terrible for areas that haven’t seen a drop in weeks to suddenly get 6+ inches ! Not really having that problem in Raleigh though seems places further west are really dry however.

I’m hoping for a low impact event with widespread moderate rains over a 2 day period .
 
SD said:
That's possible but bigger key will be to see if that area of convection firing to the east can persist overnight if so any center would likely be relocated into that region

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Game changer for sure if a center relocates to that area of convection, if that happens all bets are off

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deltadog03 said:
Now look at this upper high

View attachment 23424
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I may be wrong but believe the stronger 95l gets the higher the convection builds. The storm would be conflicted with more influence on the 250mb level. Therefore a potential NW track due to the strength of that upper high? Though the storm would have to be really strong to have major convection influxes that high?
 
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Early maps of the 0Z ICON suggest there may a slight east shift vs the prior run.

Edit: Later maps suggest there, indeed, is a decent east shift.
 
GaWx said:
Early maps of the 0Z ICON suggest there may a slight east shift vs the prior run.

Edit: Later maps suggest there, indeed, is a decent east shift.
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It definitely seems to favors the eastern "blob" for development out to 66 hrs now and still a tad bit east of last run.....thankfully it has it as a TD/weak TS at best as it moves over the Abaco's...
 
GaWx said:
Early maps of the 0Z ICON suggest there may a slight east shift vs the prior run.

Edit: Later maps suggest there, indeed, is a decent east shift.
Click to expand...

How unfortunate, rain is really becoming needed Around here, at least it’s only 1 run
 
Have to think that ICON is probably too far east, but that kind of idea can't be ruled out until we see where the center ends up. Could end up relocating further east because the convection is higher there and if so all bets are off on what happens.

But look at us all wishing for rain lol...
 
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