• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

240 hour Euro dangerously close to the Outer Banks and possibly 4 other storms in the Atlantic with the next threat approaching Puerto Rico

b5l3ya.jpg


vdz3nc.png
 
Last edited:
The 0Z EPS is even more threatening than the prior 2 EPS runs:

Out of 51 members, I see a whopping 12 H hits (nearly 25% of the members) on the SE US with 6 FL, 1 FL/GA border, 2 SC, and 3 NC. The prior two runs each had only 7 SE US H hits. Just a couple of days ago there were zero H hits on the US on multiple runs in a row. In addition, I see at the very least 4 sub-H hits on the SE US on this run.
This is starting to get just a little bit concerning but it is still way too early to get overly nervous as drastic changes in model consensus are still likely this far out.
 
Last edited:
ForsythSnow said:
Went from looking horribly disorganized to well organized overnight. Nice outflow now.
goes16_vis-swir_06L_201809031205.jpg
Click to expand...
Yeah looking real good this morning, now let's see if this strengthening continues and we get a recurve like the GFS or does it weaken in a few days like the Euro is showing and continue more westward.....
 
No doubt if Florence stays weaker, misses this escape route...
ecmwf-ens_z500a_atl_8.png


Then we are in trouble...

ecmwf-ens_z500a_atl_11.png


Long ways to go that's for sure
 
230
WTNT31 KNHC 031442
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 38.7W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1505 MI...2425 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 38.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue
through Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected later
today, followed by a slow weakening trend starting on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Click to expand...
541
WTNT41 KNHC 031443
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018

While Florence's structure improved overnight, the cloud tops have
warmed and the deep convection has thinned during the past several
hours. The 12Z satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 65 kt,
but given recent trends the initial intensity is set at the low end
of that range at 55 kt, although this is quite uncertain given the
recent fluctuations in the cloud pattern.

UW-CIMSS satellite diagnostics indicate that around 20 kt of
southwesterly shear is affecting Florence, while the SHIPS analysis
based on the GFS fields shows only about 10 kt. SSTs warm from this
point forward along the forecast track, but shear is expected to
be steady or strengthen, and the mid-level relative humidity values
decrease to around 50 percent during the next 48 to 72 hours. Given
these mixed factors, the NHC intensity forecast shows some
possibility for strengthening in the next 12 hours, followed by a
slow decay through 72 hours. Some restrengthening is forecast late
in the period as SSTs warm above 28C and the atmospheric moisture
increases. The NHC forecast is close to or a bit above the latest
IVCN consensus aid and about 5 kt above the previous NHC forecast
through 96 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 285/14. Florence will be steered
generally west-northwestward for the next 72 hours by the Atlantic
subtropical ridge, followed by a northwestward turn at days 4 and 5.
While there is large spread in the guidance between the HWRF on the
right and the UKMET on the left, the GFS, ECMWF, and their ensemble
means are more tightly clustered near the middle of the guidance
envelope. Since the overall track forecast reasoning has not
changed, the new NHC forecast remains near the middle of the
guidance. This forecast is a bit north of the previous NHC track
given the initial position and lies a little south of the consensus
aids to reflect less influence of the outlier HWRF model to the
north.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.3N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 18.6N 40.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.1N 43.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 20.8N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 23.0N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 25.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 27.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Click to expand...
 
12z gfs will be well ots.

Cmc is north of 0z but probably misses the trough and gets forced west

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
Dang I spoke too soon.....
ddf659956e563d7e834b05d987e76758.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I thought it was ots too. This run could get fun. East coast ridge is being pushed by the incoming trough. The storm has no choice but to go W or WSW at D7. Also the 2 behind Flo may actually cause us more trouble especially potential helene
80a9cc1706b5b9251569cb7e34cfba32.gif


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top