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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

FV3 is north of it's 6z run
fv3p_z500_mslp_eus_9.png
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GFS tells me to continue to be wary.

The 12Z UKMET isn't buying into the SW move after a stall and it doesn't even stall it much if at all...just a slowdown. Then again, the UKMET consistency has been downright horrible for Flo. So, take it fwiw:


HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.4N 70.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2018 0 29.4N 70.7W 952 84
0000UTC 13.09.2018 12 31.5N 73.2W 949 82
1200UTC 13.09.2018 24 33.1N 75.4W 944 83
0000UTC 14.09.2018 36 33.9N 76.9W 943 85
1200UTC 14.09.2018 48 34.0N 78.1W 955 73
0000UTC 15.09.2018 60 33.9N 78.7W 969 65
1200UTC 15.09.2018 72 33.6N 79.3W 976 60
0000UTC 16.09.2018 84 33.6N 79.9W 979 55
1200UTC 16.09.2018 96 33.9N 81.4W 988 33
0000UTC 17.09.2018 108 35.2N 82.8W 999 27
1200UTC 17.09.2018 120 37.7N 84.1W 1001 18
0000UTC 18.09.2018 132 39.2N 82.7W 1002 24
1200UTC 18.09.2018 144 41.0N 78.8W 1001 27
Click to expand...
You looking at the right run of the UK? I saw a couple of posts that it went south. I haven't seen it, though.
 
GaWx said:
The one thing I’m fairly confident of is that should there be a stall of ~24 hours while still offshore, the likelihood of significant weakening then would be high. I don’t recall off the top of my head a single instance of a very strong storm like this in the Atlantic stalling or even just slowing down to a crawl not weakening substantially. As I understand it, this is possibly due to a combo of 1) energy being extracted from the top layers of the ocean to feed the storm in the general vicinity of the center....conservation of energy concept (a principle stating that energy cannot be created or destroyed, but can be altered from one form to another) and 2) The rain cooled air for such a long period with no warming sunshine over a larger portion of the ocean (diameter of several hundred miles for this big of a storm) covered by the rain shield, would itself, likely cause cooling of a few degrees on its own. Perhaps these 2 things are interdependent/overlapping to some extent.

So, if it were still a major when this potential 24+ hour slow down and/or stall were to start, I’d bet on a weakening at least down to category 2 and possibly even down to a cat 1 as of the end of the 24 hours. I suppose she could restrengthen some once she started moving again but I wouldn’t expect her to come close to her pre-stall strength if for no other reason that a good portion of her would likely be over land then. The caveat though to the chance for restrengthening much after the weakening is a stall a good bit further offshore than even the 0Z Euro showed. That possibility also needs to be considered since that may be the trend going forward.

In talking about this likely weakening during any prolonged crawling/stalling, I’m not trying to downplay if she were to weaken to a cat 2 or even to a cat 1 as the effects on land would likely still be major all around her wherever she ends up going mainly due to her large size.

Any thoughts? By the way, I realize the waters right over the Gulf Stream would likely remain warmer than surrounding areas, regardless.

(PS, yes I still have reservations just in case)
Click to expand...
Another factor that will speed up the weakening Larry would be, while the circulation center would be barely off the coast, a large part of the storm will be on land and the frictional effects will also cause it to lose some strength. Your other 2 points are correct and would probably be bigger factors than what I mentioned because there is totally flat land to go over. If this had some mountains or foothills to go over, it would speed it (weakening) up exponentially
 
Heard through the grapevine that the Canadians take it into VA. Still not clear on what the British are doing yet.
 
According to our friends over at Tropical Tidbits, the 12z Canadian at 24 is just south of it's 6z counterpart at 36 and is inbound at a NW to WNW trajectory.
 
I actually like (from an accuracy standpoint) the latest FV3 run as being the most likely at this point
 
Wilmington and SE NC are going to be under water for a while. No matter where Flo goes after that, it's a pretty done deal that part is going to get hit hard.
 
Storm5 said:
I was kidding around lol no need to cease anything


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Haha I know it man, but now the ending has already been revealed and the suspense is gone. We still have the Euro left, but I don't have early access to that. I'll have to let you guys pick up that one.
 
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