Webberweather53
Meteorologist
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Pattern Magnificent March
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Low strength is vital as well. Weak won't pull in the cold air.
That won't do the trick. Too weak and likely too warm even at 850.
How did the 12z do compared to 0z? We need rain here in South Carolina. #drought
Occasional Flakeage in Winston Salem.
:weenie:
:weenie:
Worry about track first, precip 2nd, and temps 3rd! And Mid Atlantic people are probably about to cry!
12Z Euro is way South like the UKMET. Always hard to beat the Euro/UKMET combo. Will definitely be interesting to see how this one turns out.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
OTD in 1932 following what is still the warmest winter on record in most of the SE US, Ohio/TN Valley, and Mid-Atlantic, the 2nd of 3 storms produced snowfall in central NC. RDU observed snow on 3 separate occasions in March 1932, 2 of those times resulted in accumulating snow. The ground temps were undoubtedly an issue in these cases especially following a winter like that.
Nomanslandva
Member
That EURO run was certainly not what I was hoping for. Let the NW trend begin...
Conflicting statements
olhausen
Member
Anyone Have the 12z euro maps? My subscription ran out yesterday but I may need to re up if things continue to trend better. I'm sitting at 39 degrees as of 1:50 pm. Also got some Fluries around midnight last night and woke up to a minor dusting that quickly melted after sunrise.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 12z Euro suite followed suit of other NWP models and has squashed our storm well to the south, may not be bad news as long as it doesn't become suppressed any further for south-central VA and NC but mid-Atlantic weenies will likely commence their canonical cliff jumping
Nomanslandva
Member
This no mans land :weenie: may be edging a little closer to the edge as we speak...
packfan98
Moderator
Just for entertainment:
MichaelJ
Member
Move that about 50-100 miles North and I think it is reasonable, so basically S.Va northwardJust for entertainment:
Rosie
Member
Had flurries here most of the day, cold and windy.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If you're not a fan of severe weather, it's certainly not good to see this going into the meat of the severe season. Extreme-exceptional drought over the southwestern US and south-central high plains immediately adjacent to above-well above normal precipitation in the mid MS Valley will almost certainly provide a huge boost to the elevated mixed layer (mid-level capping inversion) & will increase potential instability. The Gulf of Mexico is also proverbially on fire which further solidifies low-level thermal and moisture advection underneath this presumed stronger EML & will boost CAPE (convective available potential energy) to go along w/ what would be more CIN (convective inhibition) if the capping inversion is more intense. This is a rare large-scale recipe that can support a huge tornado outbreak somewhere in the south-central plains, Dixie Alley, and the rest of the SE US thru April if the opportunity presents itself. We have a few priming ingredients at our disposal that are rarely observed in this part of the world and all that's missing is a triggering mechanism.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's the 18Z ICON, but it's similar to the 12Z GFS, but a bit north and the wraparound SE. It sure likes Carrolton.
pcbjr
Member
NWS is now going for 30º down here tonight at the Southern Command Post ... ya think? ... 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This vortex in the far WP is really closer to NE Siberia but you get the point.
