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Pattern Jarring January

Tarheel1 said:
Guess the old theory that patterns tend to repeat. Maybe we can get the eastern trough back by late Jan, just not as brutal, and we won't have to deal with as much suppression!
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"Winter will remember December" I want name the source of that often repeated quote.

Think EPO comes back and drives the buggy(pattern) February for a couple laps atleast.
 
1300m said:
What NWS RAH has done in abandoning their snowfall maps is truly a shame. I don't know this because I haven't talked to any of them, but I somewhat get the feeling it is out of protest for them being so short-staffed, but whatever the reason it is truly a shame they release those crappy maps they put out now compared to the consistent high-quality ones they had always put out until last year.

P.S. And yes, this is a much higher-quality map. It's legible and contoured much better.

Edit: Although on second glance, I do have a few issues with some of the amounts being way outside the contours, but overall it does look much more presentable.
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Yeah it really is a shame, and I think that may be part of the reason, granted they have started to pick up more staff near the turn of the new year so things shouldn't be quite as hectic as before. Luckily, I'm picking up the slack and expanding their archive by several orders of magnitude so we shouldn't have any problem! Storms like these in Jan 1968 for example are a pain in the butt to reanalyze and took several days of painstaking work and comparison w/ the new high resolution ERA-20C dataset, and time I don't think they have but it's worth it in the long run...
January 9-11 1968 NC Snowmap.png
January 6-7 1968 NC Snowmap.png
 
Almost lost the below freezing steak in my backyard today with a balmy 31.8

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
gfs_asnow_us_34.png
 
The Michael Ventrice tweet offered a lot of hope for snow weenies! Said the thaw would be short lived! Using anallogs, he showed a map for next 3-6 weeks, there was a huge trough over East again!! Using MJO analogs! Paging Larry!
 
Think from the way it sounded, some think the pattern we're about to wrap up is going to repeat itself after a warmer period, but likely to a lesser extent.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Pretty sure you wouldn't get apps runners with that look!
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MV QUOTE,TWEET
Using the current state of the Madden Julian Oscillation, here is a forecast of the next 3-6 weeks via historical analogs of when the MJO had a similar location and amplitude. This would be something if correct. It suggests that our mid-January thaw may only be temporary.

 
1300m said:
Not easily. That's a beautiful split flow pattern with a strong -EPO/-west Based NAO/+PNA look with a signal of an active southern stream. Would be hard not to get wintry weather in the south if that verified.
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Absolutely 1300, that pattern screams winter storms at least in the Carolinas and Northern Ala, N Ga/Ala( sorry Tenn and Va folks, you too) ;)
 
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